Saturday, May 12, 2018

War on Iran - Implications for Europe

On the Probability of a Fully-Fledged
War between Israel and Iran in Syria.

استطلاع: 54% من الإسرائيليين يتوقعون حربا مع إيران

Found out: 54% of all Israelis are in expectation of war with Iran.

The Arabic article is quoting Israel's daily "Maarev".

[El-Watan News الوطن,Cairo, on May 11, 2018]

ما احتمالات نشوب حرب إسرائيلية إيرانية في سوريا؟

What is the probability of an outbreak of
war [between] Iran and Israel in Syria?

وفي استطلاع أجراه موقع أورينت نت حول إمكانية اندلاع حرب إيرانية إسرائيلية بمفهومها التقليدي في سوريا، شككت النسبة العظمة من المصوتين في إمكانية حدوثها، حيث صوت 71.29 من مجمل المصوتين على الاستطلاع بعدم نشوب حرب بين الطرفين مستقبلاً، بينما لم تستبعد النسبة المتبقية تطور الأحداث بين الجانبين إلى حرب لا يمكن توقع نتائجها أو الأطراف التي يمكن أن تنخرط بها.ـ

In a poll conducted by Orient Net on the possibility of a war breaking out between Iran and Israel in its traditional sense in Syria, the percentage of voters who cast doubt on the possibility of its happening was 71,29% of all voters in the poll, [excluding] a future outbreak of war between the opponents. Whereas the remaining percentage did not exclude the development of events between both sides [leading] to a war where neither the results nor the parties involved could be [predicted].

[Orient News تلفزيون أورينت on May 11, 2018]

Editor's Note:

Orient News is a Dubai based broadcaster with a strong focus on Syria. It was once based in Damascus until Syrian state security allegedly raided their station and made an end to their transmissions.

The above opinion poll should therefore, at least partially, rely on Syrian Arabs. Its result is fitting with analytical approaches made by different media from Russia and the West, and whose evaluations recognize a desire of the Netanyahu administration to destabilize the regime in Tehran by limited military action rather than fully-fledged war. This, however, comes at a time when leading clerics in the Islamic Republic of Iran are furiously propagating the brandnew adage "Death to the US - Death to Israel" among their numerous followers.

The Political and Economic Implications
for Europe after Trump's Iran Decision.


[Germany's federal chancellor] Merkel told Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani in a telephone call on Thursday [May 10] that she supported maintaining the nuclear accord as long as Tehran upholds its side of the deal. [French president] Macron told Rouhani the same a day earlier.

Germany, France and Britain want talks to be held in a broader format on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its regional activities - including in Syria and Yemen.

In her speech in Aachen [/ Germany where she met with Macron], Merkel urged the European Union to strengthen its foreign and defense policy, arguing that Europe could no longer fully rely on the United States to protect it.

“Let’s face it, Europe is still in its infancy with regard to the common foreign policy,” she said. “And it will be existentially necessary to make progress here because the nature of conflicts has completely changed since the end of the Cold War.”

Pointing to the civil war in Syria, Merkel said that many of the global conflicts today were flaring on the doorstep of Europe.

“And it is no longer the case that the United States of America will simply protect us. Instead, Europe has to take its destiny into its own hands. That is the task for the future.”

Macron echoed the call to flesh out Europe’s common foreign and defense policy. “We made the choice to build peace in the Middle East. Other powers ... haven’t kept their word,” Macron said, without naming a country directly.

“We must succeed in building our own sovereignty, which in this region, will be the guarantor of stability,” he said.

[Quotations from Reuters news agency on May 10, 2018]

US Sanctions Getting Tough on EU Trade.

European business relations with Iran and which have been established after the easing of sanctions in the frame of the 2015 Nuclear Deal are now being endangered. This is because, under US law, one-sided US trade sanctions imply as well the sanctioning of such foreign companies doing business with Iran and the US at the same time.

The delivery of about one hundred passenger planes sold to Iran by the multi-national European manufacturer Airbus might serve as an example. It should be noted that jobs in different European countries could be endangered if the Trump administration hampered Airbus activities in the US and which would be fine for US competitors. Such is the policy of "America First". But even that doesn't work as it should do: US manufacturer Boeing, for example, is now being caught red-handed with a similar deal comprising several billion US $: Boeing plane deal at risk as US pulls out of Iran nuclear deal.

On the other hand, there will be no new sanctions on Iran ordered by the United Nations Security Council as the US representative there would have no chance to pass the veto of other council members. Business relations with Iran would then remain legal on the basis of international law. However some European companies might tend to crack down under US pressure and which is wreaking havoc on Europe's national economies.

Trump - The Gambler

“Obviously Trump has an appetite for risk that has led him to huge successes and four
bankruptcies. This is clearly another example of a hugely risky negotiating strategy that
could yield extremely positive results or be a potential disaster.”

Quotation from Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
who has advocated on fixing shortcomings in the Iran nuclear deal. His comment on
Trump was made in the frame of upcoming talks between Trump and Kim Jong-un.


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