Israel - Negotiations to End the Stalemate

Last Update: October 31

Turkish broadcaster TRT, October 30: Netanyahu calls any coalition with the Arabs a shameful and disgraceful idea while accusing Arabs of having stolen election, thus imitating Donald Trump. Pan-Arabic TV station الغد in Egypt, October 30: Sudden change in Eisenkot's position regarding a possible Arab participation in the government. Arabs become part of the calculation.

In the coming weeks, Netanyahu and Eisenkot are expected to work to gather the parliamentary support needed to reach the 61-seat threshold. But Netanyahu, who rules out partnership with Arab members of parliament, seems to have no choice but to try to persuade members of the opposition to defect from their parties and join his camp.

As for Eisenkot, he pledged to form a coalition “Zionist” government, but left the door open to an alliance with the “Ra'am” party, which won eight seats. However, the party's support alone will not be enough to secure a majority, as Eisenkot will still need five additional seats, making him dependent on the possibility of MPs from Netanyahu's camp defecting.

The opposition source indicated that Eisenkot might accept external support from the Ra'am party (*), but he is unlikely to accept similar support from the Joint List, explaining that large sectors of Israelis view “Ra'am” as a more pragmatic party, and less focused on establishing a Palestinian state compared to Joint List.

Another option being discussed is the formation of a broad national unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, perhaps mediated by US President Donald Trump, who may be able to put pressure on both sides to reach an agreement.

Political stalemate complicates Netanyahu and Eisenkot's options. [تواصل الإخبارية in Syria, Oct. 31]

(*) = Ra'am or United Arab List (ألقائمة العربية الموحدة) already participated in Israeli government formation.

Israel - Pictures from a General Election

Times of India Report, October 28: Netanyahu might not be able to form a coalition government.

Arabic paper Al-Hurra on October 26, 2026 :
The picture was extracted from the X-account of Benjamin Netanyahu
and is allegedly showing the skyline of Tel Aviv under nuclear attack.

Below: Different screenshots from the X-account of Benjamin Netanyahu
showing reader comments as they happened to appear in this position.

____________________________________________________________________________

Please Note:
External opinion expressed on Netanyahu's X-account doesn't necessarily correspond with
any personal opinion of 'Ulysses'. In other words: " Don't blame me for global opinion ! "

German Car Manufacturer AUDI - Subject to Criticism

VW subsidiary AUDI lets Trump announce the construction of a US plant during
election campaign. Appearance of AUDI CEO violates company’s own guidelines.

According to media reports, the appearance of AUDI's CEO Döllner at an election campaign
event for US President Trump violates the car manufacturer’s internal guidelines.
At the event, Döllner announced the construction of a new AUDI plant in the United States.
The SPD (*) has voiced criticism.

[Deutschlandfunk, German National Radio on October 26]

SPD = Germany's Social Democratic Party, important coalition partner of the actual federal government.

And Germany's mighty labor union 'IG Metall' already warned that AUDI plannings are no yet decided.

AUDI becomes a pawn in the US election campaign

Trump promises the US a new AUDI plant – though a final decision is still pending.

AUDI itself speaks of "planning" and "intending" – the supervisory board has yet to grant its approval

[IG Metall News on October 25]

Increasing Shipping Costs - Asian & EuropeanRefineries Prefer Shorter Transport Routes

The fallout from the Iran-linked war has hit the efficiency of oil tanker voyages around the world, causing a sharp decline in available fleet capacity and a historic jump in freight rates, completely erasing the economic viability of transporting crude oil from the US Gulf Coast to Asian markets.

The cost of shipping crude oil from the US Gulf Coast to China earlier this month reached $80 million per trip, which is ten times the usual rates that stabilized for years before the outbreak of war.

Standard shipping costs

Although shipping prices have fallen slightly from their peak in early October, they are still hovering this week around $60 million per giant tanker heading from the United States to Asia. This high cost prompted Asian refineries to refrain from ordering US crude for deliveries next November.

According to informed traders who spoke to Bloomberg “”, Asian refineries' orders for US crude fell this month by about 50% compared to September, settling at about 25 million barrels allocated for November deliveries. If orders remain at this low level until the end of the current trading cycle, Asia could receive its lowest US oil volume in seven years in November.

..........

Global pricing distortions

Randy Hawkins, Vice President of International Crude Oil Supply and Trade at Valero Energy «Valeiro Energy», said during the company's results announcement conference this week that shipping prices have become the most prominent event in the market, explaining that “The cost of transporting a barrel of oil via a giant tanker from the US Gulf Coast to Asia currently ranges between $30 and $35 per barrel, compared to the 2025 average, which was only about $5”.

Hawkins added that this boom is causing severe disruptions in global oil pricing, as refinery owners seek geographically close barrels, while distant sellers are forced to lower their prices and offer discounts to compensate for high shipping costs. As a result, buyers in Asia turned to Middle Eastern oil on a port delivery basis to reduce costs, while European refineries preferred nearby supplies within the continent.

Price differential map

This intense demand for European and Middle Eastern oil led to a record rise in premiums for some crudes, as the premium for dated Brent crude «Dated Brent) reached an unprecedented level of $20 per barrel above the standard Brent price last week. Norway's medium-acid crude «Johan Sverdrup» premium also jumped to $24 above Brent, according to «Wood MacKenzie» data.

In contrast, US and African crudes faced a collapse in their premiums and widening discount margins to cover shipping costs for long-haul flights to Asia, as West African crudes plunged to unprecedented discounts, some reaching $20 per barrel.

In the US market, the premium for West Texas Intermediate crude oil in the Midland Center «east of Houston» (MEH) fell to only 25 cents per barrel above the standard crude, after it exceeded $3 in early September, according to data «Link Data Services». The Gulf of Mexico's acidic average crude premium «March» also fell to $6, compared to about $17.50 a barrel at the end of March.

Trump Midterms - Balance Sheet of a Bankrupt President

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Trump's oil price fake

US crude export fell under President Biden by 40%, most probably due to a decrease in demand by foreign partners. This is logically leading to a decrease of the crude price. Even though reasons for a lower consumption are mainly positioned abroad, an additional impact of erratic & invasive US politics under the following Trump administration can be expected.

As global crude prices are usually moving around 100 $ per barrel, it is not surprising that such prices had been slightly higher under the predictable rule of Obama and Biden, but didn't pose a problem for US consumers while overall economy was running more quietly without Trump.

From there, any decrease of crude oil prices cannot be
necessarily related to the 'genius' of US president Trump.

As geopolitics still matter, it is quite clear that all kinds of erupting military conflicts and other 'political disturbances' like trade wars are leaving their imprint on the history of crude price development. From time to time, oil extracting countries, united in the OPEC organisation, have to intervene by cutting their production quotes in order to stabilize the global crude oil price:

Last week now, Trump declared his will to partly abandon sanctions on Russia, allowing Putin to sell giant amounts of diesel fuel on the global market. This happened only shortly after urging European nations to melt down part of their strategic reserves, and which was seen as kind of blackmail by US partners in the EU. This was obviously intended to ease fuel prices for his voters in rural areas of the USA that had already been badly treated by some Chinese retaliatory tariffs on certain agricultural products. Only days before Trump's Midterm Elections, it finally became clear that Trump is forced to abandon sanctions much earlier agreed between the USA & their European partners. It is as if he finally recognized the total failure of his own unpredictable way of managing the complex problems of his country. So Trump's political bankruptcy is as well a moral one. As to the wealth his questionable helpers aquired for him during his presidency, he won't be able to enjoy it as an incompetent inventor of facts showing first signs of premature dementia.

China's lever on US soybean export

Soybeans are one of US biggest agricultural exports, and China is the most important buyer. The US exported $16.5 billion worth of soybeans last year, making soybeans the second-largest agricultural export after corn, according to the US Department of Agriculture. China buys more soybeans than every other country because it has limited arable land.

That dependence has made soybeans vulnerable to swings in US-China trade policy. In the years before the first Trump trade war in 2018, the American Soybean Association estimated 28% of all US soybean production was shipped to China. When Beijing then imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans in 2018, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated farmers absorbed $9.4 billion in soybean losses, costing Iowa $1.2 billion and Illinois $1.3 billion.

That helps explain why Trump focused on soybeans in his dealmaking with Beijing. In November, he struck a deal with Xi under which China committed to buying at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028. After he met Xi in May, the first time a US president visited China since 2017, the White House announced China agreed to buy at least $17 billion in agricultural products on top of those prior soybean commitments.

But China has options ...

For all of soybeans’ importance to American farmers, China has another supplier: Brazil, a member of the China led commercial alliance of nations BRICS.

Brazil had already overtaken the US as China’s largest soybean supplier over a decade ago, but recent trade tensions have widened the gap. USDA said 71% of China’s soybean imports came from Brazil, and its agricultural attaché in Beijing reported last year that Brazil’s share had continued to grow “at the expense of the United States” which was helped by cheaper prices.

So China left the door half-closed. [Fortune, September 28, 2026]

Germany - Internal Tensions in a Changing World

Today, October 3, Germany celebrates another Anniversary of its Reunification.

What is different this time: A right-wing party recently won two regional elections, in one case only shortly missing absolute majority, in another case kicking out of parliament their most decided competitor.

What is distinguishing voters from political leaders in the times of basic changes, that is a different perception of reality. Such, common people tend to listen to the allegedly stronger leadership of a populist party rather than follow a more realistic approach to emerging problems based on common sense.

=> German History Site (German / English) <=

Bermuda Triangle Yemen برمودا يمن

Video from Al-Mayadeen TV, Beirut:
Yemen ... Triangle of Terror اليمن ... مثلث الرعب

في مثلث برمودا اليمني, تختفي السفن والطائرات. و تُنفذ عمليات خاصة يمنية باستخدام صواريخ كروز و طائرات مسيرة, ما يُجبر حاملات الطائرات على التراجع إلى البحر الأحمر

In Yemen's Bermuda Triangle, ships and aircraft vanish. Yemeni special operations, using cruise missiles and drones, force aircraft carriers to retreat to the Red Sea.

US Cost of War Against Iran

According to a report by US paper Capitol Hill on the 15th local time, quoted by Chinanews on Sept. 16, the US Department of Defense told US Congress on August 13 that the cost of the war on Iran has now climbed to more than $42 billion, which is higher than the latest public estimate by the Department of Defense. The cost increased by $4.5 billion since July 2026.

Some US experts believe that the actual figure is much higher. Linda J. Bilmes, a senior lecturer in public policy at Harvard Kennedy School, said at the time that the cost of the war was about $100 billion.

Increasing cost might be, at least, partly due to recent Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Middle East where expensive assets of the US Air Force had been targeted.

قال القناة العربية إرم نيوز في أبو ظبي: طائرة أميركية بوينغ سينتري
متضررة بشدة في قاعدة الأمير سلطان بالسعودية. ايضا كان هجوم على
بوهيرنغ و عريفجان بالكويت. قدر خسائير المعدات 3.7 مليارات دولار

A video from Abu Dhabi based Erem TV is showing a severely damaged 'Boeing E-35 Sentinel' at Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia, probably a total loss, the cost of replacement being $3 billion. Additional damage of buildings and vehicles is being reported from two other US bases in Kuwait, Camp Boehring and Arifjan. The estimated equipment loss is at approximately $3.7 billion.