Update included: «The World of Thoughts of a Young Chekist»
Russia's President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine in what Russia calls a "peace-keeping mission", shortly after recognising these regions as independent. He thereby accelerated a crisis the West fears could unleash a major war. [US media some minutes ago]
《风暴眼》被激活
« Eye of the Storm » now activated
[SINA Finance 新浪财经 22-02-2022]
On February 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic", as well as the treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and these two "republics".
The Donbass is covering an area of about 60,000 square kilometers. It was subsumed into Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The region is the largest coal base in Ukraine and was one of the most important heavy industry centers in the former Soviet Union. It has deep ties with Russia in terms of history, language, culture, ethnicity and economy.
Complete speech of Vladimir Putin in English, streamed and live translated by the Russian TV station RT:
The World of Thoughts of a Young Chekist
I lately rediscovered some brilliant novel from Russia which happened to make part of my favorite reading stuff in the days of my youth. It is about mysterious incidents in one of the mining regions of Ural in the years of reconstruction that followed World War II. It might, as well, intrigue young Russians in their dreams to become valuable members of the Soviet society and defend their country as a "Chekist", a member of state intelligence NKWD which later became KGB.
On the basis of a gripping plot, the novel comes up with the convincing description of some controversial figures who are running a rather small Siberian mining community. This community unexpectedly becomes the scene of unexplainable accidents and rising mistrust against one of its community members, a once well-reputed activist and convinced Communist. The plot under the main plot, however, is an intrusion by Western agents who are trying to explore the potential of industrial and mining facilities in the Ural region and in view of business interests that might offer big future wins, as soon as private business could be restored to replace failing Soviet economy. Then, pre-revolutionary owner rights should be renewed.
A fictive enquiry protocol at the end of the book is referring to real proceedings that I found quoted elsewhere. That protocol could give an idea of dangers targeting Russia from politically connected Western capitalists.
Therefore, only some years after World War II, a new adage of mistrust against Russia's former allies entered the political scene and became the basis of thoughts for highly motivated Soviet youths who dreamed of a career in the intelligence branch, as was the case with young Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
This morning a worried world woke up and met with Russia's claim having reduced its troops near the Ukrainian border. While some western voices looked upon that declaration as a first sign of de-escalation, others suspected a measure of deception. NATO secretary general Stoltenberg, for example, mentioned the fact that a withdrawal of troops is less important if their material still remains near the assumed battle-field.
What Stoltenberg means might be illustrated by the following view on detected military air traffic on February 5, dicussed as an alleged manning of heavy military units near the border to Ukraine with troops from eastern Russia. Such operation could be carried out within hours and in both directions.
Not yet on the retreat, if already present on the battle field: Armata T-14 upgrade !
Gerhard Schröder served as a Federal Chancellor between 1998 and 2005. During his early years as a member of parliament he met with East German leader Erich Honecker in East-Berlin (1985).
Shortly after Schröder had lost the German federal elections in 2005, he accepted a director's post at Gazprom, Russia's top provider of Siberian natural gas. He is connected with the disputed "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline which he promoted from the beginning of the project. Schröder became as well a close friend to President Putin and, together with his then-wife, adopted two Russian children. His former social-democratic friends turned their backs on him because he was already known as " the comrade of shareholders " (German: "Der Genosse der Bosse").
Both, Schröder and Putin could already have met between 1985 and 1990 in Germany, at the time Putin served as a KGB and liaison officer to the East German state security. His task being related to "foreign intelligence outside East-Germany" as he told journalists on request, he could have been expected to maintain frequent contact with Russian headquarters in Berlin-Karlshorst and with the Ministry of State Security in Berlin-Hohenschönhausen for which he owned a special identity card, even though he was officially stationed in Dresden. Visits to Westberlin, in the frame of interallied regulations or with a diplomatic passport, should have been easy to manage for him.
As to Vladimir Putin, it was during the last years of the East-German Republic that I heard his name for the first time on one of those trains which connected Westberlin with the Federal Republic. Between both frontier stations, such trains passed without further stop in the so-called German Democratic Republic. They were reserved for Western transit passengers and surveyed by East German state security ("Stasi"). On each train a group of three East German agents could be found, one of them usually being a middle-aged woman with a conspicuous and impudent appearance that she produced to get the attention of interesting passengers who should hold her for a shameless bitch, easy to approach. According to what I heard, she was responsible for some arrests and punishment of credulous but rather harmless people. In the 1980ies I happened to take the transit connection frequently. So I came to know what people I was travelling with. Once, while I was sitting in the dining car, they were sitting behind my back and had their lunch-break. Their conversation became more private and turned around a party the woman had attended. "Did you really get an invitation for that ?" "Yes I did, and there was someone pouring his vodka discreetly into a flower pot." Muffled laughter. "That was Putin." "Hello, if there is somebody such loyal to the party line." Louder laughter.
At the very moment I didn't get the meaning of that performance, but much later I understood. It was the time of General Secretary Gorbatchev's campaign against alcoholism in the Soviet Union (1985-88) which had led to considerable economic losses. Therefore, a Russian liaison officer and special guest at that Stasi party had to find a way to keep the political line without openly insulting his German colleagues. He might even have suspected the treacherous aspect of these lackeys.
Long after the German reunification, somebody else retold the same story and its background independently on the internet. So I decided to accept this as a confirmation. As to me, I never spoke to anybody about my experience up to now. And, by the way, Vladimir Putin wouldn't have enjoyed such incredible career, if he hadn't proven his unshaking loyalty towards his former masters, Gorbatchev and Boris Jelzin.
Russian video including an interview with Putin where he describes the character of his work.
Accepting the fact that Vladimir Putin appeared in Dresden in 1985 and became an important figure in the foreign intelligence business targeting the "main enemy" (which was the West), we can as well imagine that he wasn't entirely new in his business. Starting as a major and entitled with special privileges (access to Stasi facilities, German car plate) and with a certain knowledge of the German language, one might suppose that he had already acquired some professional experience in the spy business. From there, it should not be excluded that he had already completed this or that job to the satisfaction of his superiors. I remember two western press reports referring to the recruitment of students who had almost finished their formation in the late 1970ies or early 1980ies. Unless most spy activity of those years in the Federal Republic and Westberlin, this was specifically assigned to KGB. As to the reported cases, they should not have been too successful, but who knows about those other guys deliberately giving a hand in the establishing of global peace and socialism with a little well-paid post in it for themselves.
Much of the kind was happening in those years, sometimes directly under the eyes of uninvolved witnesses who happened to be on the spot at the wrong moment, or who got to know some shady figure who was not what he tried to impersonate. From there, I came to think that western counter-intelligence knew more than expected, even though they kept silent for their own reasons.
The Paper, 澎湃新闻, is a Chinese digital newspaper run by the Shanghai United Media Group and said to be ideologically connected with the Communist Party of China.
On January 27, 2022, they came with an interesting comment on the Ukrainian conflict seen as a chess game. The comment is based on a perception of Ukraine being isolated in its controversy with Russia, with no western partner willing to send troops or really effective weapons. It comes to the conclusion that Ukraine has to decide with what side to negotiate.
It is impossible to successfully mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the key lies in how Russia and Ukraine deal with problems, such as avoiding the start of fighting.
The reason is simple: from the moment Putin took Crimea, it meant that Ukraine could not be pro-Russian, and if Zelenskiy said good things for Russia, he would only be forced to step down.
In the eyes of most Ukrainians, Russia's "annexation" of Crimea and its current attempt to control Donbass is undoubtedly unacceptable.
Zelenskiy took the initiative to call out Putin for peace talks, and also invited Macron, Scholz and other helpers, which is undoubtedly good news, as to whether Putin takes care of Zelenskiy, it is another matter.
Putin's choice is to talk directly to the United States, because Russia believes that Ukraine is a pawn of the United States.
There is no turning back from the bow, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still full of variables, and the outbreak of war may not be nothing, whether to continue to be the bridgehead of the United States, or to sit down with Russia sincerely, Ukraine really has to think about it.
Is the situation in Russia and Ukraine really on the verge of erupting? To be honest, Russia really doesn't want to go to war, and Russia is not economically strong enough to support an all-out war against Ukraine. Just yesterday, the Russian stock market plunged 8.32 percent.
But Russia has no way back, they must have a buffer zone from the geopolitical point of view, can not accept NATO directly close to the border, can not accept NATO eastward expansion. But Russia also understands that if war really breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, it will not only be of no benefit to Ukraine, but also of little benefit to Russia, but it can only be a lose-lose situation and let the West take advantage of the fire.
美国每天都说狼来了，万一哪天狼真的来了呢？
Every day the US keep saying the wolf is coming.
What if the wolf really comes ?
The next day, January 27, the above quoted source reported about direct talks between Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine without the presence of a US representative:
After having temporarily excluded the US from the proceedings in Russia's direct negotiations with Ukraine and representatives from France and Germany, Russia came to terms with Ukraine on the lowest possible level of a mutual ceasefire. Soon afterwards, Russia stepped forward in the controversy about a hypothetic NATO membership of Ukraine. As Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev put it: After the ceasefire even the idea of war between Russia and Ukraine should be considered as 'unacceptable'. In order to ease tensions in the conflict, a withdrawal of NATO troops from all of Eastern Europe should therefore be the logical consequence. [Reuters news agency, Chinese edition on January 28, 2022]
Zaitsev称：“如果北约从东欧国家撤军，军事紧张局势显然会得到缓解。这正是我们所呼吁的。”
Zaitsev said: "If NATO withdraws its troops from Eastern European countries, military tensions will obviously ease." That is exactly what we are calling for. "
Any description of the situation suggests that a Russian attack on Ukraine within the very next days is quite within the bounds of probability. I therefore ventured to compile a summary of all the dangerous facts which have emerged within the last few days.
A group of pro-democracy hackers calling themselves “Cyber Partisans” said Monday they had infiltrated the Belarusian rail network in an effort to “disrupt” the movement of Russian troops into the country as tensions over a potential renewed invasion of Ukraine grow.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said Monday that Russian troops were already arriving in the Kremlin-aligned country, which borders Ukraine and Russia, ahead of a February training operation. That exercise has raised fears in the West that it would place Russian troops and equipment along Ukraine’s northern border, near the capital, Kyiv, further encircling the country. [Washington Post, January 25, 2022]
The United States has heightened the readiness of some 8,500 U.S. troops amid tensions between Russia and NATO over a potential invasion of Ukraine, but no decisions have been made yet to deploy them. [US media on January 25, 2022]
According to media reports, Russia's ambassador to China, Denisov, said at a press conference on January 25 that the negotiations between Russia and NATO will not talk about China, but regular consultations between Russia and China have been going on. The two countries have reached an agreement on this issue, and China understands Russia's position in the US-Russian security negotiations that NATO cannot allow Ukraine to join and must stop its eastward expansion.
The following report and evaluation has been compiled by a group of Chinese netizens interested in military affairs. In their article they are discussing the probability of different Russian advances on Ukraine's territory. The article has been marked as "individual opinion". [新浪军事2022年01月25日 - military news from mainland China]
On January 17, some troops from Russia's Far East began arriving in Belarus, ostensibly to take part in military exercises scheduled for February. Russia said it would also send 12 fighter jets and two S-400 air defense systems. An offensive from the north across the Belarus-Ukrainian border would allow Russian forces to approach the Ukrainian capital from the west and surround it.
Western countries are preparing for the worst. On January 17, Britain began airlifting thousands of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. A few days ago, three Russian landing ships sailed through the Baltic Sea with unknown destinations. On the same day, Ukraine was hit by cyberattacks that took down Ukrainian government websites and attacked official computers. The United States, meanwhile, said it had intelligence showing that Russia was planning military action against it in eastern Ukraine.
However, wars always unfold in unpredictable ways. Since World War II, Russia has not conducted a large-scale offensive of infantry, armor and air power. An attacked country may easily fall apart, or it may persevere. Ivan Timofeev, an expert at the Russian Council of International Affairs, warned that a prolonged and slow military confrontation would destabilize Russia itself.
The Biden administration in its struggle to handle a difficult competition with Russia and China, as seen from inside China. Quotations taken from a popular news feed:
[網易 Easy Net, Chinese handy news on January 22, 2022]
俄总参谋长格拉西莫夫公开表示：
你们敢动手，我就敢扔核弹
Gerassimow, chief of the Russian General Staff, openly stated:
If you dare to do anything, I will dare to drop a nuclear bomb.
Since the current US President Joe Biden took office, one of his biggest wishes has probably been to separate the close diplomatic cooperation between China and Russia.
After all, in the way that the United States can only rely on the printing press to pay military funds today, and maintains a strategic confrontation with China and Russia at the same time in the world, it is more and more likely to follow the old path of the Soviet Union.
If Russia turns to the West, it can indeed change the momentum of Sino-US competition, [up to now] benefitting China, overnight and which is a dream that will allow Biden and Americans not to wake up for three days and three nights.
To that end, Biden flew to Geneva, Switzerland, on June 17 to talk in secret with Russian President Vladimir Putin for four hours to ease tensions between the United States and Russia.
Published today, January 22, another Chinese language article from mainland China came with further news of US war preparations in the frame of the Ukraine conflict. [腾讯网2022年01月22日]
美国准备为乌克兰战争做准备，无人机从阿联酋跑到乌克兰侦察
The United States prepares Ukraine for war, and drones run
from the United Arab Emirates to Ukraine for reconnaissance.
According to the latest aviation news, the American RQ-4 Global Hawk was able to run from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Ukraine for reconnaissance and was flying around Turkey. This shows that the United States is ready to prepare for the war in Ukraine.
On January 22 the Ministry of the Interior of the United Arab Emirates announced that the flying of drones and light sports aircraft will be banned from now on. Agencies that need to use drones for advertising or commercial shooting must obtain a flight permit. The Interior Ministry said there had been a recent incident of drone abuse and the ban had been issued to ensure the safety of people's lives and property. It is unknown, if the flight ban is related to the reported deployment of a US made Global Hawk drone leaving the UAE for Ukraine. [环球网2022年01月23日]
In order to assure further assets for military help to Ukraine, US legislators brought about a legal construction.
Meanwhile, U.S. senators have drafted a bill that would allow the U.S. president to provide Ukraine with Lend-Lease weapons. The document, called the Law on Democratic Defense of Ukraine, recommends providing Ukraine with military equipment "to protect vulnerable Ukraine from Russian military aggression."
Under current law, the President of the United States has the authority to permit the supply and lease of weapons to "American partners and allies." In addition, the U.S. defense budget for 2022 provides Ukraine with $300 million, including $225 million for training and equipment and $75 million for training and equipping lethal weapons. But, as the bill's drafters argue, that's not enough.
Between January 18 and 20, Russia, China and Iran held joint navy exercises. This comes at a time when antagonisms between these three nations on one side and the USA on the other side are culminating.
Here is some Chinese video which was launched yesterday, January 21. It is intended to answer US ambitions on the seven seas and offers increased security that should be allegedly provided by the Russians and their partners. Pictures are showing navy units operating in the Gulf of Oman. Other joint operations will take place in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. By the way, the three nations already held a similar exercise in 2021.
中俄伊三国举行联合军演， 这是美国自找的
" China, Russia, and Iran held joint military exercises,
which the United States asked for itself. "
中俄伊三国联合军演，将展示全球正义的强大力量
The China-Russia-Iran joint military exercise will
demonstrate the mighty power of global justice.
划重点：石油
连续发生多起针对国际商船的袭击
The Key is Oil:
There have been a number of consecutive attacks against international merchant ships.
The Gulf of Oman is a very sensitive strategic waterway... It is connected to the Strait of Hormuz... About one-fifth of the world's oil... Is being shipped through the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz...
Last May and June... There have been multiple attacks on international merchant ships in a row... The U.S. military is a major threat to shipping in the surrounding waters... They have repeatedly forcibly seized Iranian vessels……
Another brandnew video published today, January 22, is showing a military operation involving the Russian navy and which took place in the Gulf of Oman during the joint exercises.
Latest news on the development in Ukraine.
While US foreign secretary Blinken should be sitting around the negotiating table together with his Russian counterpart Lavrov, the Chinese newspaper 《星洲》 reported about an ongoing delivery of US weapons to Ukraine by proxy.
The Chinese news from 《星洲》 are appearing in Malaysia and are independent from Beijing. The quoted article was published today, January 21.
美同意波罗的海三国向乌克兰转交美制武器
The United States agreed to the transfer of U.S.-made
weapons to Ukraine by the three Baltic states.
The U.S. State Department has agreed to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to deliver U.S.-made missiles and other weapons to Ukraine. Lithuania's defense minister said on Thursday that the country hoped to deter "aggressor" Russia.
U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has approved $650 million in weapons to Ukraine since last year, including $200 million in defensive security assistance that was approved at the beginning of this month.
Yesterday, I discovered a Chinese language article published on the same day and which sheds a light on the missing acceptance of Russian supremacy over the peoples and cultures in the western part of the Soviet Union after its foundation in 1917. According to that article, this led to an initial fraternization of these peoples with German troops after their invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.
While the German Federal Republic, founded in 1949, finally refrained from militarism and gave way to economic partnership and a peaceful competition of political systems, Russia feels its influence on Ukraine weaken in front of Western economic and political temptations, namely an EU and NATO membership which recently appeared on the Ukrainian horizon like a mirage. This is necessarily raising fears in Moscow to lose its last grip on a former satellite and which once made up for an indispensable part of the old Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.
Here are some quotations from that remarkable Chinese evaluation of a limited popular support for German invaders in World War II. It is still a proof that unbearable suppression is steadily raising resistance against any kind of 'Big Brother' and might finally be leading to an open revolt against his system.
... , after the establishment of the Soviet Union, due to the policy of terror for many years, the Russian culture was decisive, and other cultures, such as Ukrainian culture and language, were even illegal, which also aroused their dissatisfaction with the Soviet authorities. These peoples were not particularly willing to fight for the Soviet regime, and even anti-Soviet groups in the Baltic countries had already occupied some cities before the Germans arrived. Therefore, when the Soviet-German war broke out, many fighters and commanders in the Russian, Eastern Ukrainian and Eastern Belarusian troops did not show their due combat effectiveness and easily surrendered.
A Belarusian officer once said to the Russian Liberation Army, which aptly reflected the mentality of these Soviets at the time: "We have no choice at all to do this or that. If the Germans win, they will wipe us all out. If the Soviets win, they will wipe out our civilization and assimilate our nation... There is no third option."
However, as the German army expropriated the occupied areas, it aroused the dissatisfaction of the local people, which intensified the contradiction. The local people realized the nature of the German invaders, and some people took up arms and resisted the German army.
Two major US cellphone carriers, AT&T and Verizon, agreed Tuesday afternoon to delay the planned roll-out of some new 5G wireless service that was intended to go into full operation tomorrow, Wednesday 19.
This comes after many US airlines like American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines raised alarms about potential interference with important systems on planes. In a letter to the White House, airline CEOs asked the government for “immediate intervention,” warning that the deployment of 5G could result in massive flight disruptions nationwide.
The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is concerned about a narrow range of frequencies included in the package of radio frequencies used for 5G services. These frequencies should provide higher data speeds and make cellphones more reliable. But airline CEOs worry that cellphone towers on the ground emitting a 5G signal could interfere with an airplane’s altimeter.
Other than some European 5G mobile communications standard, the US based 5G standard is using a frequency above 3,7 Gigahertz which is dangerously near the operation frequency of radar altimeters (4,2 - 4,4 Gigahertz), needed for aircraft approach navigation at low altitude and low visibility.
All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL) announced on the evening of the 18th that they had cancelled some flights between Japan and the United States due to the possible impact of the 5G signal in the United States. The Federal Aviation Administration and several airlines have previously warned that 5G airwaves could cause malfunctions in aircraft instruments and systems.
The Japanese press reported that two Japanese airlines flying Boeing 777s on the America Line will cancel flights that cannot be changed to other models. All Nippon Airways pointed out that it learned from Boeing on the 18th that due to the influence of 5G radio waves, the system that controls the posture of the 777 aircraft may malfunction when it is flying at low altitudes.
According to ANA, U.S. aviation authorities pointed out in December that 5G airwaves could affect the plane's altimeter, and on Jan. 13 revealed the airports that might be affected. Boeing notified all airlines operating its 777s to limit operations because it could affect airframe control as the planes land. JAL also canceled some flights due to this impact.
Warnings from Boeing were accompanied by similar declarations from Airbus Industries.
The Arabic air carrier Emirates grounded its flights bound for North America.
Russian sources express some second thoughts about the origin of widespread protests against Kazakhstan's autocratic leadership and which rather unexpectedly broke out some days ago.
There is no doubt that such protests are originally based on the fragility of Kazakhstan's economy, even though their violence seems to be unusual.
In the current global energy crisis, Kazakhstan, a net oil exporter, is struggling with rising prices and domestic fuel supplies. Kazakhstan is highly dependent on oil exports but lacks the pricing power of OPEC members, so its inflation and exchange rate are affected by the oil market and its main trading partner, the Russian currency ruble. In fact, it is a sharp increase in energy prices that finally blew the fuse of civil unrest in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan And Western Interests
Russian experts believe that 'Western black hands' are behind the massive protests in Kazakhstan. Pictures are being distributed that should prove the distribution of guns among protesters. Russian media are pointing at US interests in the region and suspect Western NGOs, namely 'Kazakhstan Democratic Choice' and 'Wake Up, Kazakhstan', for trying to take the lead in local protests in the capital Almaty.
Furthermore, there could be much money involved, as US authorities are being scolded for having allegedly allocated more than 1.5 million US dollars to the 'rights and freedoms protection' work of Kazakh citizens last year.
After a 4-day outage, the mobile phone signal in Kazakhstan's largest city has been restored today while bitcoin mining activities in Kazakhstan have been seriously affected. They disappeared by 12% due to the repeated interruption of the Internet in Kazakhstan during the riots. Data are showing that Kazakhstan will become the second largest bitcoin mining center in the world after the United States in 2021.
In the frame of their peace-keeping mission requested by Kazakhstan's leader Tokayev, Russia sent about 2,500 Russian airborne troops and related equipment. It is reported that 10 Il-76 large transport aircraft and 3 An-124 strategic transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces participated in the troop transport mission. Judging from the models used, the Russian airborne troops obviously carried a lot of heavy equipment. A video released by Russian state TV also showed that the Russian military transport plane to Kazakhstan was equipped with BMD-3 airborne combat vehicles and BTR-82A wheeled vehicles. Infantry fighting vehicles and "Tiger" high-mobility armored vehicles, etc.
As to the peace-keeping troops, the Russian army sent the 45th Special Brigade of the Airborne Forces, the Ivanovo Airborne Forces and the famous Ulyanovsk Airborne Forces. The airborne troops are the elite troops in the Russian army, and their personnel treatment, training level and equipment level are very good.
The deployment of these troops, however would certainly weaken Russia's general combat-readiness when it came to a military showdown between Russia and Ukraine, another hotspot where Russian and US interests are colliding.
China's Central Asian Strategy Affected
Russian sources have been quoted by Chinese media that are warning Chinese expatriates to take effective safety precautions and inform China's consulate and embassy in case of an urgency. China has much interest in a steady development of Kazakhstan which it sees as an important factor in its policy of 'One Road - One Belt'. That policy is intended to create a 'New Silk Road' between China and Eastern Europe via Kazakhstan and expand economic ties in the region while simultaneously developing new markets for Chinese goods.
The Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea and which is partly owned by Chinese share holders. 中企拥有股份的卡沙甘油田在哈萨克斯坦的里海
Tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered at the Ukrainian border, raising worries amongst the U.S. and its allies of a possible invasion. Russia has said it built up its military to prevent NATO expansion towards its borders and to defend Russian ethnic nationals living in the war-torn east Ukrainian region of Donbas.
US President Biden has said that Russia will have "a heavy price to pay" if it invades Ukraine.
Biden made his comment after reporters asked about his latest phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 30. During the 50-minute call, the two presidents mostly discussed de-escalation in Ukraine and U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations heading into European talks that will begin in mid-January.
Following the Biden-Putin call, a group of 24 former U.S. national security officials and Russia experts — a group that includes several officials who served in the Obama, George W. Bush and Clinton’s administrations — released a statement calling on Biden to immediately, and publicly, lay out the penalties Russia would face if Putin were to move forward with military action.
“We believe the United States should, in closest consultation with its NATO allies and with Ukraine, take immediate steps to affect the Kremlin’s cost-benefit calculations before the Russian leadership opts for further military escalation,” the group wrote. “Such a response would include a package of major and painful sanctions that would be applied immediately if Russia assaults Ukraine. Ideally, the outline of these sanctions would be communicated now to Moscow, so that the Kremlin has a clear understanding of the magnitude of the economic hit it will face.”
The Russians for their part continue to make the case that they are facing an existential threat with Ukraine.
UPDATE 04-01-2022 Russian Cyber Attacks
Ukraine has been the target of Russia’s most brazen cyber operations in recent years. Such attacks would surely accompany any land invasion launched by the roughly 175,000 Russian troops currently massed on the Ukraine border.
Cybersecurity experts are already noting an uptick in Russian cyber intrusions into Ukrainian government and civilian computer networks that could lay the groundwork for a major cyberattack. [Washington Post]
I recently learned about a cyber attack which caused a shutdown of local electricity in Ukraine. The shutdown was stopped by the aggressor only shortly before essential and long-lasting damage to the regional water supply could be caused by the freezing of idle pumping systems during the cold season. [German TV documentation]
Some Historic and Ethnic Facts Serving Russia's War Readiness
Historic Links Between Moscow and Kiev
In the 11th century, a prince called Yaroslav the Wise united principalities lying between the Baltic and Black seas, codifying laws and forming the first political state of the eastern Slavs. Both Russia and Ukraine claim him as a forefather.
The kingdom of Yaroslav became a central part of the Russian empire during later centuries, and the axis Moscow-Kiev even served as the main line of supply for the Russian-Japanese War at the beginning of the 20th century where Russia blew most of its military and financial reserves in a colonial adventure that should provide access to coal, iron and unexpensive labour in China's eastern province of Manchuria, a region that was contested at the time between two colonial powers, Russia and Japan.
Further information is available from a brandnew Chinese article:
* 乌克兰的历史 *
The above quoted source from China and less comprehensive sources from the West are hinting at the role of national identity that is firing the Ukraine Conflict.
Ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine
As to the distribution of ethnic Russians in contested areas of Eastern Ukraine, there is an article I once published in this blog in order to prove the presence of a vast community of Russians in the Donbas region after World War II:
* Russlands Historische Wurzeln am Rand der Ukraine *
This article has been written in German as it refers to Russian literature, translated into German and distributed in occupied Eastern Germany after the end of World War II. At that time, nothing indicated that the Donbas region would become an object of dispute between independent states.
A related English language article on the 2014 referendum in the frame of Russia's occupation of Crimea can be found here:
* Ukraine - Crimean Referendum *
European Dreams of Love Peace and Open Markets
Now that the Ukraine Conflict has become increasingly complicated and dangerous, the European Union needs to decide whether to leave it to US President Biden to negotiate a deal with Russia's Putin regarding an publicly requested - though hypothetic - NATO membership of Ukraine, or get involved to find new ways of further cooperation between the EU and Ukraine that could be tolerated by Putin. However, there is not much choice left. Wouldn't it be therefore more favourable to abandon the fundamental idea of making Ukraine an affiliate to the EU which could only lead to a direct confrontation with Russia. In case of an armed conflict which seems to become more and more real, this could freeze all relations with Russia for years.
To emphasize 'value based policies' in foreign politics might not be the best choice at the moment. Close economic relationship could be achieved sooner or later anyway, however not in opposition with existing treaties signed between Ukraine and Russia.
As I tried to show, both countries enjoy a long common history that was, as well, the history of the Russian Empire smashed in the revolution of 1917. When the subsequently founded Soviet Union failed in the 1980ies, Ukraine became independent, however not completely separated from Russia. There are still many links, economic and ethnic ones, which have their impact on Russian-Ukrainian coexistence. No wonder that Russia's leader looks with great suspicion at the expansion of the European Union, even though he might be aware that such expansion can include an unhealthy aspect for the EU itself.
Memories of the 'Great War of the Fatherland' are still present, especially in the disputed area of Donbas and Crimea. This is what should not be forgotten. When Russian troops finally prevailed over German invaders in the battle of nearby Stalingrad at the end of 1942, it was the result of different reasons and developments, and it was not the logical consequence of Russian supremacy.
And we don't want to see the Euro currency end like the German occupation forces' Karbowanez currency for Ukraine in 1942.
Well, the 20 Euro banknote for use in Ukraine is a fake ! But I hope I got it look real.
Or do you really wish to make Ukraine a part of the European Union and 'Euroland' ?
Yesterday, December 11, 2021, German cyber security authority BSI launched a RED ALERT regarding the use of a certain Java based logging utility.
On December 9, 2021, a zero-day arbitrary code execution vulnerability in Log4j 2 was reported and given the descriptor "Log4Shell". It has been characterized as "the single biggest, most critical vulnerability of the last decade".
Apache Log4j is a Java-based logging utility originally written by Ceki Gülcü. It is part of the Apache Logging Services, a project of the Apache Software Foundation. Log4j is one of several Java logging frameworks.
The critical security gap caused by Log4j is now being compared with critical gaps like Shellshock or Heartbleed that already endangered hundreds of million computer systems on the internet in 2014.
Last Update (Monday, December 13):
After the BSI warning had been upgraded, cyber security units of leading German enterprises reacted immediately. VW, Lufthansa, Deutsche Telecom and Hapag-Lloyd Shipping raised their levels of security measures and watched out for possible cyber attacks. [German Press]
Apart from vulnerabilities of software structures, there are increasing dangers from the outside that are using such vulnerabilities to compromise business and private data in a most extensive way.
An Israeli spyware named Pegasus has become the most dangerous example of an aggressive software that is able to target selected Android and iOS smartphones to extract and download almost any relevant data which government authorities might be interested in. Originally written to enable the tracking of criminals and terrorists, this highly expensive software is only offered to governmental clients who have to sign a document that is intended to restrict the use of Pegasus spyware to the investigation of crime and terrorism.
However, human rights organizations are providing evidence that Pegasus has been used as well to target journalists and system critics in different countries. Both Ghana and Saudi Arabia are mentioned by international media in a relation with NSO's Pegasus. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the murder of system critic Jamal Khashoggi on the premises of Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul in October 2018 is still present in the memory of many people who suspect the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman as the initiator of that crime.
Under the Biden administration, the United States Commerce Department has now blacklisted NSO, the maker of Israeli spyware Pegasus, for maliciously targetting journalists.
According to US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, "The United States is committed to aggressively using export controls to hold companies accountable that develop, traffic, or use technologies to conduct malicious activities that threaten the cybersecurity of members of civil society, dissidents, government officials, and organisations here and abroad."
This looks very much different from earlier US security practice – even under the Obama administration - when National Security Agency NSA was sucpected of eavesdropping the smartphone of German chancellor Angela Merkel.
It seems that global distribution of high-end spyware has run out of control. Since private business took over, Israeli authorities have come under pressure for the first time to look into the proceedings of NSO on their own territory. And it should be noted that Israel, as well, is being suspected of targeting Palestinian politicians with Pegasus
Indeed, it is from Israel that subversive software originally started. I remember having learned the expression "information mining" from an Israeli company that was offering a special software on the internet for those who were still disappointed by a too low performance of search engines in the first years of the internet.
Much later, Israel succeeded in planting its destructive virus "Stuxnet" into the hardware of Iran's Uranium enrichment facility and which led to the destruction of a certain amount of Uranium centrifuges.
Now that "evil government hackers" from China, Russia and North Korea have joined the long-standing electronic spying activities of Israeli and US government services, things are out of control.
This happens at a time when communications technology has reached new levels of complexity, while online access to important infrastructure - like power and water supply -, not to mention all kinds of administrative data, has already become a matter of everyday practice.
People lacking Bifidobacterium adolescentis in their intestinal flora showed subnormal antibody response to different COVID-19 vaccines. This was discovered in a cooperation between two independent research facilities at the University of HongKong.
Shenzhen News, December 3, 2021.
Joint research proved that over half of the people who received the Chinese SinoVac vaccine had a suboptimal antibody response. There was a close correlation between low antibody response and lack of a unique bacterium in our gut called Bifidobacterium adolescentis. Among BioNTech recipients, those who lacked Bifidobacterium adolescentis (and F. prausnitzii) also showed lower antibody response.
An evaluation given by a German medical journal (January 2021) is hinting at the use of antibiotics in some critical cases of Covid-19 and which was possibly leading to a disturbance of the intestinal flora.
The gut organ makes part of the human immune system and its cells can as well be infected by the corona virus. That is why a possible relation between intestinal flora on one side and antibody response to covid vaccines or the Long Covid sydrome on the other side cannot be excluded.
Last Update (November 27/28):
- Israel closes its borders to all foreign visitors for a period of two weeks says prime minister.
- Germany restricted air traffic coming from further African destinations like Botswana, Lesotho,
Malawi and Zimbabwe, countries situated in the neighbourhood of the South African Republic,
after the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was found in air passengers who recently entered
Germany. Only German citizens and other permanent residents are allowed to enter and are
subject to quarantine.
- Measures are intended to provide further time for national health authorities to evaluate the
dangers of the omicron variant and possible counter measures.
- Zhang Wenhong 张文宏, a high-ranking expert for infectious diseases and connected with
the Communist Party of China confirmed the necessity of an observation period of two weeks
for a comprising evaluation of the corona variant. He shows himself convinced that China can
cope with the omicron virus strain. PR China and Hong Kong already detected omicron infected
persons on their territories.
- News on the spotting of the omicron variant in covid infected travellers from South Africa are
developing in different European countries like Great Britain, Italy, the Czech Republic and the
Netherlands.
The original article was
continuously updated on
the day of publishing:
A brandnew fast-spreading variant of SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in South Africa. Researchers are racing to determine whether it poses a threat to COVID vaccines’ effectiveness.
An expert group of World Health Organization (WHO) is meeting today on the subject. It already labelled the strain — currently known as B.1.1.529 — as a 'variant of concern' and named it 'omicron' according to the Greek naming system for coronavirus variants.
Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as δ (Delta) and α (Alpha) and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.
But the variant’s apparent sharp rise in South Africa’s Gauteng province — home to Johannesburg — is also setting off alarm bells. Cases increased rapidly in the province in November, particularly in schools and among young people.
The variant harbours a spike mutation that allows it to be detected by genotyping tests that deliver results much more rapidly than genome sequencing.
German authorities immediately declared South Africa a 'COVID variant region' and ordered restrictions on air traffic between both countries starting tonight. This comes at a time when infection rates in Germany are peaking, due to a lack of acceptance of the prescribed corona vaccinations and other protective measures within a population group which is resistant to advice. Public vaccination centers became deserted after a 65% vaccination rate had been reached and were subsequently closed in September. In November the situation changed dramatically. As intensive care beds are now running out at some hospitals in Southern Germany, German Air Force prepares to provide transport capacities in order to transfer critical cases of covid-19 to Northern German locations.
European Union (EU) authorities triggered off a general alert for its member nations. A first case of infection with the new covid variant has already been detected in Belgium.
Israel is known for having put on traffic restrictions to some African regions much earlier. A Chinese source referring to Taiwan health authorities just reported: (The new variant) is expected to become the next wave of mainstream virus strains in South Africa .....預估可能成為下一波南非主流病毒株
Additional News on COVID Research:
A new protein vaccin, developed at the University of Tübingen (Germany), should enable an immune response to SARS-CoV-2 on the basis of detecting certain characteristic protein snippets of the corona virus. The spike protein itself, and which is being targeted by other vaccins, would not play a role in the detection of the virus and the generation of an immune response. Changes to that protein will therefore have no consequences for the vaccin's effectiveness. The protein vaccin has been developed for a group of patients already suffering from immune deficiency and is intended to be applied to certain cancer patients. However, compulsory evaluation of experimental data could take some further time.
The evaluation of an Israeli health insurer on the efficiency of vaccination has been quoted by British and German medical journals. The data are indicating that the risk of re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 increases earlier than previously assumed after a full vaccination just 90 days after the second dose of the mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 (BioNTech-Pfizer).
Update included in the following text on 2021-11-05:
Yesterday, 2021-11-03, the international program of the Arabic news channel 《Al-Jazeera》 reported on a close encounter between US warships and vessels of the Iranian revolutionary guard near the coast of Oman. It seems, Iranian coast guard hurried to the relief of an oil tanker navigating under the flag of Vietnam. Iran says its military units thwarted a US attempt to "steal Iranian oil" by confiscating the tanker. The incident should have happened on October 24.
《Al-Jazeera》الجزيرة
2nd news video published on 2021-11-03, 1st to contain Iranian video material.
《Al-Mayadeen》قناة الميادين
, a pro-Iranian TV channel broadcasting in Arabic on 2021-11-03:
جرأة إيرانية كبيرة في مواجهة الأميركيين تجبرهم على التراجع
Great Iranian courage in a confrontation with the Americans forced them to retreat.
Other Arabic language sources confirmed the Iranian news, showing matching videos of the incident that were taken from different positions (view from Iranian helicopter, view inside helicopter, view from Iranian vessel). What happened: Some helicopter operated by the Iranian revolutionary guards landed on the tanker and deployed a special forces unit to prevent US troops from taking over the ship. At the same time, a US warship close to the tanker, was confronted at very short distance by different Iranian military vessels including speedboats.
The Arabic and Iranian news make sense when related to another incident that already took place off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in February this year:
观察者网：美国扣押伊朗油轮卖掉船上200万桶原油，获利1.1亿美元
The Chinese source 《Observer Network》 reported on 2021-06-01:
The US Energy Information Administration released the US oil import and export data for March on the 28th [of May]. Some traders noticed that the import data showed US imports from Iran in March. Some 33,000 barrels of crude oil should have been imported. However, as early as 2018, the United States imposed trade sanctions on Iran's crude oil exports.
The Associated Press AP reported on the 31st, citing court documents and government statistics, that this batch of "imported" crude oil was "confiscated" from Iran. The United States seized an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of the UAE in February this year and sold 2 million barrels of crude oil on board, and finally made a profit of 110 million U.S. dollars.
Footnote added on 2021-11-10:
According to Iranian sources, the Vietnamese tanker "Sothys" was guided to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas where it was unloaded and recently released. The tanker is now anchoring near the indicated position off the coast of Oman.
