A group of pro-democracy hackers calling themselves “Cyber Partisans” said Monday they had infiltrated the Belarusian rail network in an effort to “disrupt” the movement of Russian troops into the country as tensions over a potential renewed invasion of Ukraine grow.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said Monday that Russian troops were already arriving in the Kremlin-aligned country, which borders Ukraine and Russia, ahead of a February training operation. That exercise has raised fears in the West that it would place Russian troops and equipment along Ukraine’s northern border, near the capital, Kyiv, further encircling the country. [Washington Post, January 25, 2022]
The United States has heightened the readiness of some 8,500 U.S. troops amid tensions between Russia and NATO over a potential invasion of Ukraine, but no decisions have been made yet to deploy them. [US media on January 25, 2022]
根据媒体报道，俄罗斯驻华大使杰尼索夫在1月25日的记者会上表示，俄罗斯与北约之间的谈判不会谈到中国，但俄罗斯与中国之间的定期磋商一直在进行，中俄两国在这个问题上已经达成了一致，中国理解俄罗斯在美俄安全谈判中的立场，即北约不能允许乌克兰加入，必须停止东扩。
According to media reports, Russia's ambassador to China, Denisov, said at a press conference on January 25 that the negotiations between Russia and NATO will not talk about China, but regular consultations between Russia and China have been going on. The two countries have reached an agreement on this issue, and China understands Russia's position in the US-Russian security negotiations that NATO cannot allow Ukraine to join and must stop its eastward expansion.
The following report and evaluation has been compiled by a group of Chinese netizens interested in military affairs. In their article they are discussing the probability of different Russian advances on Ukraine's territory. The article has been marked as "individual opinion". [新浪军事2022年01月25日 - military news from mainland China]
1月17日，一些来自俄罗斯远东地区的部队开始抵达白俄罗斯，表面上是为了参加定于2月举行的军事演习。俄罗斯表示，它还将派遣12架战斗机和2套S-400防空系统。如果从北部越过白俄罗斯与乌克兰边境发动进攻，将使俄军能够从西部逼近乌克兰首都并包围它。
On January 17, some troops from Russia's Far East began arriving in Belarus, ostensibly to take part in military exercises scheduled for February. Russia said it would also send 12 fighter jets and two S-400 air defense systems. An offensive from the north across the Belarus-Ukrainian border would allow Russian forces to approach the Ukrainian capital from the west and surround it.
西方国家正在做好最坏的准备。1月17日，英国开始向乌克兰空运数千枚反坦克导弹。几天前，三艘俄罗斯登陆舰驶过波罗的海，但目的地不详。同一天，乌克兰遭到网络攻击，这些攻击破坏了乌克兰政府网站，并攻击了官方的计算机。与此同时美国表示，它掌握的情报显示，俄罗斯正计划对其在乌克兰东部采取军事行动。
Western countries are preparing for the worst. On January 17, Britain began airlifting thousands of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. A few days ago, three Russian landing ships sailed through the Baltic Sea with unknown destinations. On the same day, Ukraine was hit by cyberattacks that took down Ukrainian government websites and attacked official computers. The United States, meanwhile, said it had intelligence showing that Russia was planning military action against it in eastern Ukraine.
然而，战争总是以不可预测的方式展开的。自第二次世界大战后，俄罗斯还从未进行过大规模的步兵、装甲部队和空中力量的大规模进攻。而受到攻击的国家可能会轻易的四分五裂，也可能会坚持下来。俄罗斯国际事务委员会专家伊万·蒂莫菲耶夫警告称，长期而缓慢的军事对抗，将让俄罗斯自身陷入不稳定的局面。
However, wars always unfold in unpredictable ways. Since World War II, Russia has not conducted a large-scale offensive of infantry, armor and air power. An attacked country may easily fall apart, or it may persevere. Ivan Timofeev, an expert at the Russian Council of International Affairs, warned that a prolonged and slow military confrontation would destabilize Russia itself.
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