Sunday, January 09, 2022

Kazakhstan Uprise Endangering
Russian and Chinese Interests

Russian sources express some second thoughts about the origin of widespread protests against Kazakhstan's autocratic leadership and which rather unexpectedly broke out some days ago.

There is no doubt that such protests are originally based on the fragility of Kazakhstan's economy, even though their violence seems to be unusual.

[“失落的卫星国”哈萨克斯坦:难以“独立行走”的通胀与坚戈 In the "Lost Satellite Nation" Kazakhstan: Inflation and [Currency] Tenge are Struggling to "Walk Independently"]

In the current global energy crisis, Kazakhstan, a net oil exporter, is struggling with rising prices and domestic fuel supplies. Kazakhstan is highly dependent on oil exports but lacks the pricing power of OPEC members, so its inflation and exchange rate are affected by the oil market and its main trading partner, the Russian currency ruble. In fact, it is a sharp increase in energy prices that finally blew the fuse of civil unrest in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan And Western Interests

Russian experts believe that 'Western black hands' are behind the massive protests in Kazakhstan. Pictures are being distributed that should prove the distribution of guns among protesters. Russian media are pointing at US interests in the region and suspect Western NGOs, namely 'Kazakhstan Democratic Choice' and 'Wake Up, Kazakhstan', for trying to take the lead in local protests in the capital Almaty.

哈萨克斯坦不明人员发放枪支【河青新闻网】 Firearms were distributed by unknown persons in Kazakhstan [Chinese source]

Furthermore, there could be much money involved, as US authorities are being scolded for having allegedly allocated more than 1.5 million US dollars to the 'rights and freedoms protection' work of Kazakh citizens last year.

[俄专家认为哈萨克斯坦大规模抗议背后有西方黑手 Russian experts believe that there are Western black hands behind the mass protests in Kazakhstan]

After a 4-day outage, the mobile phone signal in Kazakhstan's largest city has been restored today while bitcoin mining activities in Kazakhstan have been seriously affected. They disappeared by 12% due to the repeated interruption of the Internet in Kazakhstan during the riots. Data are showing that Kazakhstan will become the second largest bitcoin mining center in the world after the United States in 2021.


Russia's Peace-Keeping Mission

In the frame of their peace-keeping mission requested by Kazakhstan's leader Tokayev, Russia sent about 2,500 Russian airborne troops and related equipment. It is reported that 10 Il-76 large transport aircraft and 3 An-124 strategic transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces participated in the troop transport mission. Judging from the models used, the Russian airborne troops obviously carried a lot of heavy equipment. A video released by Russian state TV also showed that the Russian military transport plane to Kazakhstan was equipped with BMD-3 airborne combat vehicles and BTR-82A wheeled vehicles. Infantry fighting vehicles and "Tiger" high-mobility armored vehicles, etc.

As to the peace-keeping troops, the Russian army sent the 45th Special Brigade of the Airborne Forces, the Ivanovo Airborne Forces and the famous Ulyanovsk Airborne Forces. The airborne troops are the elite troops in the Russian army, and their personnel treatment, training level and equipment level are very good.

[2500名俄军到哈平叛 "战斗民族"怎么打? 2500 Russian troops to Kazakhstan to put down the rebellion. How to fight the "fighting nation"?]

The deployment of these troops, however would certainly weaken Russia's general combat-readiness when it came to a military showdown between Russia and Ukraine, another hotspot where Russian and US interests are colliding.

China's Central Asian Strategy Affected

Russian sources have been quoted by Chinese media that are warning Chinese expatriates to take effective safety precautions and inform China's consulate and embassy in case of an urgency. China has much interest in a steady development of Kazakhstan which it sees as an important factor in its policy of 'One Road - One Belt'. That policy is intended to create a 'New Silk Road' between China and Eastern Europe via Kazakhstan and expand economic ties in the region while simultaneously developing new markets for Chinese goods.

The Kashagan oil field in the Caspian Sea and
which is partly owned by Chinese share holders.

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