Saturday, August 20, 2011

LIBYA - Chinese Military Analysis

The following text has been extracted from a review written by an editor of Beijing's People's Daily Newspaper (online edition), a semi-official source of PR China. As Chinese commentators are usually competent and well informed when it comes to the development of a military conflict abroad, it is worth to consider what they are saying. Therefore, I chose some characteristic quotations from the Chinese article and made a translation. In order to facilitate reading, I added three own subtitles:

The Libyan capital is suffering from a strategy of besieging
the Gadafi regime. Can it resist until the end of August ?

U.S. and Russian position in the battle for Libya

For some days, the counterattack of the Libyan opposition, while continuously pressing forward, seemingly led the West to foster certain hopes.

A press spokesman [...] for the U.S. White House admitted: " One point becomes steadily clearer: The ouster of Gadafi's regime will mark a longed-for day. " (*) Many U.S. officials express [their opinion] that now all those are right who initially believed that arming the Libyan opposition [gave them]" without any doubt the ability to get the whole country under control ".
(*) = A more common word construction than 可待 uses the Chinese character 苛 instead of 可 which represents the same syllable. If the original character was replaced, the phrase would change its meaning to:
"(The ouster of) Gadafi's regime will mark a day of rigorous treatment."

Namely the international community felt the unexpected when Russia ( that was originally supporting Gadafi ) suddenly changed its position. On [August] 12, the Russian president's press office declared that Russian president Medvedyev just signed a presidential order to carry out UN Security Council's resolution No. 1973 dealing with a total inhibition of air traffic over Libya, the freezing of assets from Libya's leader Gadafi, his family, his relatives and his nearest followers and, furthermore, the prohibition of entrance into Russia's territory for the mentioned persons.

Gadafi's military position and the resulting consequences

The following is a quotation of two U.S. officials' evaluation after the failed launch of a Scud missile at rebel positions in the oil port of Brega:
… 还是标志着战争进入新阶段。因为这枚“飞毛腿”导弹的射程达800公里,“说明卡扎菲手中可能还有些存货,甚至还有生化武器”。
... [The use of a Scud missile] can mark as well the war entering into a new phase. Because of the Scud missile's range of fire amounting to 800 km, " it is clear that Gadafi possibly holds in his hand as well further 'goods in stock', even comprising biological and chemical weapons."

The missile threat left beside: Even if armed soldiers of the Libyan opposition are getting close to Tripolis, these insufficiently trained fighters have to consider the art of street fighting in order to take over the capital. They have to deliver the corresponding amount of lives according to the 'cost' [i.e. death toll] per time unit.

News are saying that those Special Guards, personally commanded by Gadafi's son, are retreating from all sides into Tripolis, just under [his] eyes. If then such masses loyal to Gadafi are increasing even more to [an enormous] extent, both sides in the capital's militant fighting must not [be guided by] an optimistic view.

Furthermore, the arming of Libya's opposition, a rather slack way of waging war and cooperating, is also some kind of a testing procedure. Analysts are pointing out that once war has started between two parties as a short distance and earth-bound man-to-man fighting to such an extent, then NATO [forces] with all their power [to control] airspace, nevertheless will lose technical equipment [in an effort to achieve] military predominance. All they can do is to sit and wait for the outcome of both parties' ground war.

Libya under the influence of Al-Qaeda

What is worrying Western societies even more are those recently propagated videos and other propaganda material from the North African branch of Al-Qaeda organization, demonstrating [one fact]: The Libyan war and other [manifestations] of the "Arabic Spring" are already urging the organization to search for a [tactical] base to "increase its domain and strengthen its influential power". In Libya and its neighbouring states the shadow of Al-Qaeda and its members already emerged.

Link to the original source, published on August 17, 2011.

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