利比亚首都遭战略包围卡扎菲政权或挺不过8月底？
The Libyan capital is suffering from a strategy of besieging
the Gadafi regime. Can it resist until the end of August ?
U.S. and Russian position in the battle for Libya
连日来，利比亚反对派不断推进的反攻，似乎也令西方看到了某种希望。
For some days, the counterattack of the Libyan opposition, while continuously pressing forward, seemingly led the West to foster certain hopes.
美国白宫新闻发言人杰伊15日坦言：“越来越清楚的一点是，卡扎菲政权（的倒台）指日可待。”多名美国官员也表示，现在完全有理由相信，利比亚反对派武装“肯定有能力控制全国”。
A press spokesman [...] for the U.S. White House admitted: " One point becomes steadily clearer: The ouster of Gadafi's regime will mark a longed-for day. " (*) Many U.S. officials express [their opinion] that now all those are right who initially believed that arming the Libyan opposition [gave them]" without any doubt the ability to get the whole country under control ".
(*) = A more common word construction than 可待 uses the Chinese character 苛 instead of 可 which represents the same syllable. If the original character was replaced, the phrase would change its meaning to:
"(The ouster of) Gadafi's regime will mark a day of rigorous treatment."
最让国际社会感到意外的是，原本支持卡扎菲的俄罗斯也突然转变立场。俄罗斯总统新闻局12日表示，俄总统梅德韦杰夫已签署总统令，落实联合国安理会第1973号决议，全面禁止与利比亚的空中交通，冻结利比亚领导人卡扎菲亲属及亲信的资产，并禁止其中部分人员进入俄罗斯境内。
Namely the international community felt the unexpected when Russia ( that was originally supporting Gadafi ) suddenly changed its position. On [August] 12, the Russian president's press office declared that Russian president Medvedyev just signed a presidential order to carry out UN Security Council's resolution No. 1973 dealing with a total inhibition of air traffic over Libya, the freezing of assets from Libya's leader Gadafi, his family, his relatives and his nearest followers and, furthermore, the prohibition of entrance into Russia's territory for the mentioned persons.
Gadafi's military position and the resulting consequences
The following is a quotation of two U.S. officials' evaluation after the failed launch of a Scud missile at rebel positions in the oil port of Brega:
… 还是标志着战争进入新阶段。因为这枚“飞毛腿”导弹的射程达800公里，“说明卡扎菲手中可能还有些存货，甚至还有生化武器”。
... [The use of a Scud missile] can mark as well the war entering into a new phase. Because of the Scud missile's range of fire amounting to 800 km, " it is clear that Gadafi possibly holds in his hand as well further 'goods in stock', even comprising biological and chemical weapons."
除了导弹威胁外，即便利比亚反对派武装兵临的黎波里城下，这些训练不足的武装人员要想以巷战的方式拿下首都，还得付出相当的生命与时间代价。
The missile threat left beside: Even if armed soldiers of the Libyan opposition are getting close to Tripolis, these insufficiently trained fighters have to consider the art of street fighting in order to take over the capital. They have to deliver the corresponding amount of lives according to the 'cost' [i.e. death toll] per time unit.
有消息称，由卡扎菲儿子亲自指挥的近卫部队眼下已全面收缩到的黎波里城内，如果再加上忠于卡扎菲的民众，那么，双方在首都的武力争夺前景将不容乐观。
News are saying that those Special Guards, personally commanded by Gadafi's son, are retreating from all sides into Tripolis, just under [his] eyes. If then such masses loyal to Gadafi are increasing even more to [an enormous] extent, both sides in the capital's militant fighting must not [be guided by] an optimistic view.
此外，西方国家与利比亚反对派武装之间松散的作战协作也是一个大考验。分析人士指出，一旦交战双方开始近距离的地面厮杀，那么，拥有空中力量的北约反而失去了技术与军事优势，只能坐等双方地面战的结果。
Furthermore, the arming of Libya's opposition, a rather slack way of waging war and cooperating, is also some kind of a testing procedure. Analysts are pointing out that once war has started between two parties as a short distance and earth-bound man-to-man fighting to such an extent, then NATO [forces] with all their power [to control] airspace, nevertheless will lose technical equipment [in an effort to achieve] military predominance. All they can do is to sit and wait for the outcome of both parties' ground war.
Libya under the influence of Al-Qaeda
更让国际社会担心的是，“基地”组织北非分支最新发布的录像和其他宣传资料显示，利比亚战争和其他“阿拉伯之春”已经让该组织找到了“扩大地盘，加强影响力”的基础，利比亚及其邻国都已开始出现“基地”组织成员的身影。
What is worrying Western societies even more are those recently propagated videos and other propaganda material from the North African branch of Al-Qaeda organization, demonstrating [one fact]: The Libyan war and other [manifestations] of the "Arabic Spring" are already urging the organization to search for a [tactical] base to "increase its domain and strengthen its influential power". In Libya and its neighbouring states the shadow of Al-Qaeda and its members already emerged.
Link to the original source, published on August 17, 2011.
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