China Trade - Trump Pulled The Trigger

Last Update: July 7



U.S. president Donald Trump fired the biggest shot yet in the global trade war by imposing tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports. China immediately said it would be forced to retaliate.

The duties on Chinese goods started at 12:01 a.m. Friday in Washington, which is just after midday in China. Another $16 billion of goods could follow in two weeks, Trump earlier told reporters, before suggesting the final total could eventually reach $550 billion, a figure that exceeds all of U.S. goods imports from China in 2017.

U.S. customs officials will begin collecting an additional 25 percent tariff on imports from China of goods ranging from farming plows to semiconductors and airplane parts. China’s officials have previously said they would respond by imposing higher levies on goods ranging from American soybeans to pork, which may in turn prompt Trump to raise trade barriers even higher.

[Quotations from Bloomberg on July 6, 2018]




沈建光：决胜中美贸易战的关键

Shen Jianguang: The key to winning the Sino-US trade war.

中美贸易战开打只是开始，未来如何演变还有很大变数，取决于两国经济情况、政治博弈、国际战场等多重因素。

[Shen Jianguang is a well-known columnist on economic subjects with an interesting academic career.]

The Sino-US trade war is only at its beginning, and there are still many variables in its future evolution depending on the economic situation of the two countries, the political "game", the international battlefield and other factors.

[CAIXIN 财新，a Chinese publication on economics and financing on July 6, 2018]




内忧与外患，哪个让美国最头疼？

Internal worries and external trouble; - which of both causes more headache for America ?

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要知道，在美国进口市场份额中，中国占比21%，欧盟占比18%，而墨西哥和加拿大分别占比13%左右，美国若要与超过进口份额六成的贸易伙伴大打贸易战，实在难以获得好处，将面临进口替代困难与通胀上升；而若反对美国贸易制裁的国家集体反制，也将对美国经济与就业产生负面冲击。

One needs to know that among US import market shares China accounts for about 21%, the European Union for 18% and Mexico / Canada for 13%. If America wants to wage a trade war against trading partners that exceed 60% of US import share, it will really be difficult to obtain benefits, and America will face difficulties in import substitution and a rising inflation rate. And if those countries collectively opposed US trade sanctions, they would cause a negative impact on US economy and employment.

[SINA Economics and Finance 新浪财经 on July 6, 2018]




.......... in recent decades the development of integrated supply chains has allowed countries around the world to concentrate on economic activities in which each holds a comparative advantage. In short, global supply chains mean countries can focus on what they do best. The result has been marked increases in productivity, widespread economic growth and big improvements in material living standards around the world.

By launching a trade war that threatens to disrupt these supply chains, Trump would in effect be attempting to roll back the tide of globalisation that has propelled global economic growth.

Although some countries would fare better than others in the conflict, emerging as winners in relative terms, the resulting slowdown in global trade and investment would clearly damage overall world economic growth, and could even lead to a contraction in the world economy as a whole.

..........

The optimists hope the US president is bluffing, and that he intends to fight no more than a phoney war before settling for a showpiece settlement, as he did with North Korea.

In the pessimists’ view, Trump regards international trade as a zero-sum game, which for too long the US has been losing. To Trump, if tariffs inflict losses on other countries, the US will be the winner.

The coming weeks and months will determine which version is correct (and it is possible the US president himself does not know). In the meantime, however, the damage already done to trust in the global trade regime and to confidence in international investment suggests that the global economy as a whole is likely to be the big loser.

[South China Morning Post on July 7, 2018]




US experts: Winning trade wars is a myth.




网闻博报：商战世界杯特朗普要手撕WTO脚踢北约？

Network News Blog: The Trade War World Cup - Trump will Tear Apart WHO and Kick NATO ?

[GUANCHAZHE (The Observer) 观察者 news blog quoted on July 7, 2018]



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South China Sea - China Enforcing Territorial Claims

走！去海南当“岛主”

Go out ! Leave Hainan to become " the master of an island "

The quoted article is about an initiative of the local authorities of China's Hainan province who are looking for investors in the development of uninhabited islands in the South China Sea. Long-term projects for touristic or economic purpose are appreciated and requests will be scrutinized by the authorities regarding all legal aspects including security items.

This initiative is seen as a measure for a better integration of Hainan's maritime region in the South China Sea into the sphere of influence of mainland China.

[Jinri Toutiao 今日头条, Beijing, privately owned news and information content platform on July 5, 2018]




Territorial claims in the South China Sea.

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Trump's Trade War - Global Reactions

美国犯了众怒 英媒：逾40国在WTO抗议美汽车关税计划

The United States aroused furious protest; British media saying:
More than 40 countries protested US auto tariff plans at the WTO.

英媒称，欧盟、中国和日本等国家7月3日在世界贸易组织（WTO）表示， 对于美国可能对进口汽车和零部件加征关税的做法深感担忧。这些国家 是美国的主要贸易伙伴。

British media said: On July 3, the European Union, China and Japan addressed their deep worries at the World Trade Organization (WTO) about US import tariffs probably to be imposed on automobiles and parts. These countries are America's most important trade partners.

据路透社7月3日报道，一名参加会议的官员表示，日本警告称此类举措可能 引发一连串反制措施，情势恐将急剧升高，导致基于规则的多边贸易体系崩溃。 日本和俄罗斯已在WTO货物贸易理事会启动磋商。

According to Reuters [news] agency report from July 7, an official attending the [WTO] meeting declared Japan warned that such a move [i.e. the introduction of tariffs on cars and parts] may trigger off a series of countermeasures, and there are fears the situation might rapidly aggravate, leading to the collapse of the rules-based multilateral trading system. Japan and Russia have initiated consultations at the WTO Trade in Goods Council.

报道称，包括欧盟28国在内的40个WTO成员国警告，鉴于汽车在全球贸易中的重要性， 美国的行为可能严重破坏全球市场，威胁WTO体系。

The report says: Among 40 WTO member states on the alert are 28 nations belonging to the European Union. In the view of the importance of global car trade, America's behaviour might seriously damage the global markets and threaten the WTO [trading] system.

[SOHU 搜狐 on July 5, 2018]




中金：贸易摩擦影响的三种情景 市场好转需正面催化剂

CICC: The three scenarios of trade frictions -
Market improvements need a positive catalyst.

CICC = China International Capital Corporation Limited 中国国际金融股份有限公司, one of China's leading investment banking firms.



Sino-US direct investment volume in billion US$
above: US investment in China / below: Chinese investment in the USA

[Financial World 金融界 on July 5, 2018]




[Bloomberg on July 5, 2018]

Mattis in China - Nice Memories

Last Update: July 3

While China won't give up an inch of its territorial claims in the South China Sea, US defense secretary Mattis will find it hard to forge an agreement that might please his boss Donald Trump. This could be the reason why the Chinese surrounded Mattis with especially beautiful army women as some kind of a cosolation prize and a reminder for the days of his retirement.


振作起来老战友!

Cheer up, old comrade in arms !




中国美女包围美国防长 解放军军官挨批

Chinese beauties surrounding US defense secretary.
Liberation army officers are being critisized.




照片：美国国防部长马蒂斯会见中国国防部长魏凤和

Photo: US defense secretary Mattis meeting
with China's defense minister Wei FengHe on
1st July [Mattis and Wei standing side by side]

[51新闻 Chinese language news service from Canada on July 2, 2018]

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Hong Kong - CNOOC Limited announced today that its parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), has signed a production sharing contract (PSC) with Roc Oil (Bohai) Company (Roc Oil) and Smart Oil Investment Ltd. (Smart Oil) for Weizhou 10-3W oilfield and Block 22/04 in the South China Sea.

[World Oil on July 3, 2018]




我首艘国产核航母开始“试手” 俄罗斯送来两份大礼

China's first homemade aircraft carrier began with a "practical test".
Russia delivered two big presents.

It's about China's intention to construct a nuclear powered icebreaker with the help of Russian technology and which came to China in the frame of "two big Russian presents". The use of Russian technology in a nuclear powered icebreaker hints as well at the origin of Russian and US aircraft carrier drive technology because the application of nuclear drive technology in icebreakers can be seen as a first "practical test" for further military purpose.

[SINA Military 新浪军事 on July 3, 2018]

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Visitors to "blueprint news" coming from Los Angeles, USA, and an Egyptian web node in Cairo.

South China Sea - Conduct of Parties Involved

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lu Wei hosted a regular press conference on June 28, 2018, where he answered questions on the implementation of the "High-Level Officials' Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea".



6月25日至27日，中国与东盟国家在中国湖南省长沙市举行落实《南海各方行为宣言》 第十五次高官会和第二十四次联合工作组会。外交部副部长孔铉佑作为中方高官率团 出席。

From June 25 to June 27, China and ASEAN countries held the 15th Senior Officials' Meeting and the 24th Joint Working Party Meeting of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in Changsha, Hunan Province, China. Vice Foreign Minister Kong Yuyou attended the delegation headed by senior Chinese officials.

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我们对会议取得的积极成果感到高兴。从会议成果也可以看出，本地区国家珍惜和平稳定、 合作发展的大好局面。从自身利益出发，中国和本地区国家也比任何域外国家都更加珍视 南海地区的和平以及航行自由与安全。个别域外势力不断地通过各种方式、包括炒作所谓 航行自由与安全受到影响的伪命题来搅动南海局势，地区国家对此保持着应有的高度警惕。 我们希望域外国家尊重本地区国家共同维护地区和平与稳定、致力于地区合作发展繁荣的 良好局面，不要无事生非。

We are pleased with the positive results achieved by the meeting. From the results of the conference, it can also be seen that the countries in the region cherish the excellent situation of peace, stability, and cooperation. Starting from their own interests, China and the countries in the region have also cherished the peace in the South China Sea and freedom of navigation and security more than any other country.

Some of the extraterritorial forces have constantly stirred up the situation in the South China Sea by various means, including speculating on the false proposition that the so-called freedom of navigation and security have been affected. Regional countries have maintained their due vigilance.

We hope that countries outside the region will respect the good situation in which the regional countries maintain peace and stability in the region and commit themselves to the development and prosperity of regional cooperation. There is no need to put the blame on anything.

[SINA Finance 新浪财经 on June 28, 2018, slightly modified excerpt of some pre-translated text version]




中国驻英大使英媒撰文:不容美国在南海"秀肌肉"

China's ambassador to Britain wrote for the British media: America
won't be tolerated to "put forth its muscles" in the South China Sea.

[Handy Net - Easy Net 手机网易网 on June 29, 2018]

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US visitor to "blueprint news" coming from San Diego
and who is interested in China's aircraft carriers.

US - Trump Ruins Local Industries

- Latest News on US Economy under the Trump Administration -
- June 30: Update added on US Diplomats Leaving their Posts -







On June 26 USA Today published an evaluation of US president Trump's Trade Wars written by an opinion contributor. Here an excerpt from the original text:

An obscure provision in the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, intended to be used to address specific national security concerns, has been invoked by the White House to push through sweeping import taxes on American consumers. Given how these powers have been abused, it’s time for Congress to look at ways that it can restore some oversight powers to the Constitutional powers it delegated away.

Congress has delegated too much power to the President in recent decades. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act gives the President the power to impose restrictions on foreign trade should the Department of Commerce determine that imports pose a threat to national security. Section 232, unlike other discretionary trade powers, requires only a report by the Secretary of Commerce, which the President can choose to agree with or ignore. This can be used to bypass the normal safeguards Congress set up when delegating away its power to regulate trade.


The situation on the stock markets is none better as a brandnew article is suggesting and which has been published on June 27 by the New York Post. Here an excerpt from that article in order to hint at the driving force that is behind the current rollercoaster behaviour of equity markets:



Reading the tea leaves on President Trump’s ever-changing views on trade with China has proven to be a major headache for US equity markets.

Look no further than the wild ride the Dow Jones industrial average took Wednesday.

The blue-chip index soared 285.91 points in early trading on news that the Trump administration’s restrictions on Chinese investment in US firms wouldn’t be as tough as initially feared. But by midday the Dow reversed course sharply to end the day down 165.52 points at 24,117.59.

“Investors don’t think that this trade war tension is over, and they’re concerned that something is going to come and bite them later on,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, told The Post.

The schizophrenic nature of the equity markets can be attributed to differing headlines coming out of the White House.

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US visitors to "blueprint news" coming from New Jersey and Virginia.

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US Diplomats That Recently Resigned :

The US ambassador to Estonia is resigning, reportedly in frustration at remarks made by US president Donald Trump about America's European allies. He wishes to retire from the Foreign Service effective July 29 after 33 years of public service.

James D Melville had held senior diplomatic posts in several European countries before he was nominated ambassador to Estonia by former US President Barack Obama. He speaks Russian, German and French according to his biography on the US State Department website.

Mr Melville revealed in a Facebook post that Mr Trump's comments had brought forward his decision to retire, Foreign Policy magazine reported.

In the private Facebook post seen by Foreign Policy, Mr Melville reportedly told friends: "For the president to say the EU was 'set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank', or that 'Nato is as bad as Nafta [the North American Free Trade Agreement]' is not only factually wrong, but proves to me that it's time to go."

Other US diplomats have also left their posts early in recent months.

In January, US ambassador to Panama John Feeley resigned saying he was no longer able to serve under President Trump.

A month earlier, Elizabeth Shackelford resigned from her post in Nairobi where she worked for the US mission to Somalia.

In her letter of resignation to then Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, she said she was quitting because the US had abandoned human rights as a priority, Foreign Policy reported.

[BBC on June 30, 2018]

South China Sea - Official Report

Last Update: June 23




《2017年南海航行状况研究报告》正式出炉

The "2017 South China Sea Navigation Research Report"
was officially released.

The Research Report on the Navigation Status in the South China Sea in 2017 was issued by the China Institute of Navigation and Shanghai Maritime University (SMU).

研究表明，除渔业活动外，南海水域内推荐航路主要适用于通往中国沿海、日韩、 东南亚各国港口之间以及欧美等的商船，航路以西南/东北向为主，总体上根据 季节可分为东线、中线和西线，其中中线是主要航路。“在上述三类商船推荐航线中， 不同季节的航线选择与分布，均远离岛礁区或与岛礁区保持有足够的安全距离。” 黄有方说。[上海海事大学校长黄有方]

Studies have shown that except for fishing activities, the recommended routes in the South China Sea area are mainly suiting merchant ships connecting the ports of China's coastal area, Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asian countries with each other and, as well, with Europe and the United States.

The routes are mainly in the southwestern/northeastern direction, and are generally classified according to the season of the year as the eastern line, the central line, and the western line, where the central line is the main route.

“Among the above mentioned three recommended types of merchant shipping routes, choice and distribution of any route during different seasons ensures distance from island reef areas or maintains a sufficient safety distance from the island reef area,” said Huang You Fang. [Huang You Fang is President of Shanghai Maritime University and co-author of the quoted report]

船位数据统计与分析表明，2017年3月和6月南海水域的船舶总数分别为7909艘次和 7502艘次，以大于3万吨级的船舶为主，月船舶数量与2016年基本保持平衡。除天气 (热带风暴)影响和节能控速外，船舶在该水域航行是自由、顺畅的。南海水域商船 推荐航路被过往船舶反复自由选用，水域中船舶的流量、船长、船宽和吃水总体上较大， 船舶平均航速稳定；过往南海船舶的船籍港遍布世界近70个主要航运国家或地区， 航经南海的国家或地区的船舶总运力匹配全球189个国家或地区前50船队总吨位的 92%以上。

The statistics and analysis of the ship's position data show that the total number of ships in the South China Sea waters in March and June 2017 was 7,909 and 7,502, respectively. Ships with a size greater than 30,000 tons were mainly used. The number of ships per month remained basically balanced with that of 2016.

Except from weather related effects (tropical storms) and energy-saving speed control, ships are freely and smoothly sailing in these waters. The recommended merchant shipping routes for the South China Sea have been repeatedly and freely selected by ships coming and going. Flow, length, width and water draught of ships in these waters is comparatively large, and the average speed of the ship is stable.

In the past, the shipping ports of the South China Sea were reached by 70 major shipping countries in the world. The total shipping capacity of national or regional sailing through the South China Sea matched more than 92% of the total tonnage of the top 50 fleets in 189 countries or regions.

[Chinanews 中国新闻网 June 20, 2018]




【中国无人艇南海演练】无人舰队加持AI，厉害了我的国

[China testing unmanned boats in the South China Sea]
The unit of unmanned ships has adopted the artificial
intelligence (AI) that seriously damaged our country.



Formation of unmanned boats showing the Chinese characters
军民 meaning "the army and the people".

Recently and in the vicinity of the Wanshan Island group that belongs to the South China Sea, a unit of 56 unmanned ships has conducted large-scale "multi-boat synergy" technical tests. These unmanned naval vessels use artificial intelligence technology to control and communicate with each other. This test was intended to demonstrate the potential of Chinese "sea drones" in their future maritime military operations.

[SOHU 搜狐 on June 18, 2018]




US opinion on China's military build-up in the South China Sea.



A brandnew Chinese video from June 23 dealing with planned British and French
navy drills in the South China Sea. It's mostly about an evaluation of naval power
in the frame of "punishing" China for militarizing its maritime zone of influence.

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Chinese visitor and his requested site: US Tariffs - China Strikes Back.



Another brandnew Chinese video from June 23 is dealing with countermeasures
against US tariffs. This time it's about American soy beans and cotton. It should
be noted that North America is the most important provider of cotton worldwide.
特朗普总统疯狂引起美农业的没落。



Australian visitor and his requested site: China's Aircraft Carrier - Latest News.



US visitor and his requested site: 70 Years ago End of World War II.



Spanish visitor and his requested site: Israel - German Submarine Delivery.

South China Sea - Military Build-Up

Important Update added on June 18 !

The South China Sea Conflict simmering between China, its neighbours and the US has come again into the focus of US government and media after China stepped up militarizing that region by allegedly deploying advanced missile systems on the disputed Spratly Islands, according to the Pentagon.

Defense officials disclosed to the Washington Free Beacon that the militarization has raised alarm bells about China's creeping takeover of the strategic waterway used for some $5 trillion annually in international trade.

It is said that the "Pentagon is planning a major response to Chinese hegemony".






[The Washington Free Beacon on June 14, 2018]




Video from a US based military site reporting on China's military build-up in the South China Sea.

美国军事网站报告有军事化在南海【2018年6月16日】




西沙島礁浮潛釣魚超夯　軍事設施敏感排除台港澳遊客

The floating fishing [ platform ] of a Paracel Island reef ... is a military facility
that is sensible to get rid of tourists from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Australia.

[ET Today 大陸—新聞雲, a Taiwanese TV station represented as
well in Hong Kong, Singapore and Mainland China, on May 28, 2018]


Western media recently reported that France and Britain intend to participate in navy drills to be held in the South China Sea later this year in August. This prompted observers in Russia to ask what would be the use of such military drills for European nations and who are not only far away from China and with little influence in the region but are, as well, subject to US pressure when it comes to US protective import tariffs and the consequences of president Trump's abandoning the nuclear treaty with Iran, both US measures threatening Europe's national economies.

These Russians come to the conclusion that France and Britain actually react out of fear to loose the rest of US respect and of transatlantic cooperation. This opinion is being shared by two Chinese sources I found on the internet. Here is one of them:




欧洲为何突然在南海动作频频？俄媒：因为他们弱小

Why is Europe suddenly repeatedly acting in the South China Sea ?
Russian media say: Because they are small and weak !

[SINA Military 新浪军事 on June 16, 2018]


On June 18 the Philippine Daily Inquirer referred to the Philippine politician Roilo Golez, security adviser to former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, and who had urged an aggressive diplomatic campaign to counter China’s increasing encroachment on Philippine territory in the South China Sea. Here an excerpt from the original article:




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Further information related to the region:




الرئيس روحاني: نسعى لمواصلة التعاون من اجل الحفاظ على الاتفاق النووي

President Rouhani - We take care to continue the
cooperation intended to maintain the nuclear treaty.

Rouhani referred to Iran's intentions with respect to the nuclear treaty in a telephone conversation on Thursday when he congratulated Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad on his election as prime minister.

[Al-Manar المنار, Hezbollah TV, Lebanon, on June 14, 2018]

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