Last Update: July 7
U.S. president Donald Trump fired the biggest shot yet in the global trade war by imposing tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports. China immediately said it would be forced to retaliate.
The duties on Chinese goods started at 12:01 a.m. Friday in Washington, which is just after midday in China. Another $16 billion of goods could follow in two weeks, Trump earlier told reporters, before suggesting the final total could eventually reach $550 billion, a figure that exceeds all of U.S. goods imports from China in 2017.
U.S. customs officials will begin collecting an additional 25 percent tariff on imports from China of goods ranging from farming plows to semiconductors and airplane parts. China’s officials have previously said they would respond by imposing higher levies on goods ranging from American soybeans to pork, which may in turn prompt Trump to raise trade barriers even higher.
[Quotations from Bloomberg on July 6, 2018]
沈建光：决胜中美贸易战的关键
Shen Jianguang: The key to winning the Sino-US trade war.
中美贸易战开打只是开始，未来如何演变还有很大变数，取决于两国经济情况、政治博弈、国际战场等多重因素。
[Shen Jianguang is a well-known columnist on economic subjects with an interesting academic career.]
The Sino-US trade war is only at its beginning, and there are still many variables in its future evolution depending on the economic situation of the two countries, the political "game", the international battlefield and other factors.
[CAIXIN 财新，a Chinese publication on economics and financing on July 6, 2018]
内忧与外患，哪个让美国最头疼？
Internal worries and external trouble; - which of both causes more headache for America ?
..........
要知道，在美国进口市场份额中，中国占比21%，欧盟占比18%，而墨西哥和加拿大分别占比13%左右，美国若要与超过进口份额六成的贸易伙伴大打贸易战，实在难以获得好处，将面临进口替代困难与通胀上升；而若反对美国贸易制裁的国家集体反制，也将对美国经济与就业产生负面冲击。
One needs to know that among US import market shares China accounts for about 21%, the European Union for 18% and Mexico / Canada for 13%. If America wants to wage a trade war against trading partners that exceed 60% of US import share, it will really be difficult to obtain benefits, and America will face difficulties in import substitution and a rising inflation rate. And if those countries collectively opposed US trade sanctions, they would cause a negative impact on US economy and employment.
[SINA Economics and Finance 新浪财经 on July 6, 2018]
.......... in recent decades the development of integrated supply chains has allowed countries around the world to concentrate on economic activities in which each holds a comparative advantage. In short, global supply chains mean countries can focus on what they do best. The result has been marked increases in productivity, widespread economic growth and big improvements in material living standards around the world.
By launching a trade war that threatens to disrupt these supply chains, Trump would in effect be attempting to roll back the tide of globalisation that has propelled global economic growth.
Although some countries would fare better than others in the conflict, emerging as winners in relative terms, the resulting slowdown in global trade and investment would clearly damage overall world economic growth, and could even lead to a contraction in the world economy as a whole.
..........
The optimists hope the US president is bluffing, and that he intends to fight no more than a phoney war before settling for a showpiece settlement, as he did with North Korea.
In the pessimists’ view, Trump regards international trade as a zero-sum game, which for too long the US has been losing. To Trump, if tariffs inflict losses on other countries, the US will be the winner.
The coming weeks and months will determine which version is correct (and it is possible the US president himself does not know). In the meantime, however, the damage already done to trust in the global trade regime and to confidence in international investment suggests that the global economy as a whole is likely to be the big loser.
[South China Morning Post on July 7, 2018]
US experts: Winning trade wars is a myth.
网闻博报：商战世界杯特朗普要手撕WTO脚踢北约？
Network News Blog: The Trade War World Cup - Trump will Tear Apart WHO and Kick NATO ?
[GUANCHAZHE (The Observer) 观察者 news blog quoted on July 7, 2018]
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