Friday, July 27, 2018

EU Now Trump's Lackey?

Update including Twitter Analytics added below on August 1st.


After the meeting between US president Trump and Claude Juncker, the high-ranking envoy of the European Community, it became clear that Trump is trying to clean up the mess of his trade war with China by pressuring Europe.

EU member states should now buy soy beans to save US farmers from the loss they are suffering from China's counter-measures against Trump's crazy import tariffs.

The Europeans should, as well, buy liquified natural gas (LNG) from America and act against a strategical decision, already made years ago by Germany and some of its European partners, to rely on natural gas from Russia. This time it's about selling America's LNG surplus and shipping it to Europe where a network of pipelines for the provision with Russia's natural gas is already existing or in construction. First comments are hinting at the fact that a change in the strategy of energy provision would cost too much, even though some EU members in Western Europe, might tend to prefer the LNG solution.

As a recompensation Trump would consider to refrain from further tariffs on European automobiles which would hit Germany especially hard.

Yesterday, a Chinese financial and economics publication came to my attention with a comment on the Trump-Juncker meeting:


The European Union gave in ! Agreed to import US soy beans
and liquified natural gas [LNG], thus creating a spearhead
actually pointing at China and Russia.


当中国对来自美国的大豆征收 25%的关税后,美国的大豆行情就一路下挫。 芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)的大豆期货价格下跌 20%,跌至 10 年最低。

美国当地时间 7 月 23 日,民间出口商向美国农业部(USDA)报告, 又有 16.5 万吨销往中国的大豆订单被取消。而在 6 月, 我国也累计取消了 61.5 万吨美国大豆订单。

中国作为美国豆农的最大金主,进口的美国大豆占美国大豆总出口量的 62%。 据路透社报道,今年秋季,中国大豆进口量仅占美国提前采购量的 17%, 相比过去十年平均水平下降了 60%。

The impact of soy bean imports by the European Union:
The soy bean is China's "killing mace" in the Sino-US trade war.

After China imposed a 25% tariff on soy beans coming from the US, US market quotations dropped all the way. The forward prices for soy beans at the Chicago futures exchange (CBOT) dropped for 20% to a 10 year's minimum.

On July 23 US local date, nongovernmental export traders reported to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) that an order for 165.000 tons of soy beans [for shipment to] China had been cancelled, adding to another order of 615.000 tons of US soy beans cancelled in June.

China is being looked upon as US [soy] bean farmer's biggest money spender, its imports making up for 62% of all US soy bean exports. According to a [Lu Tou She] report, this autumn China's soy bean import volume will only make up for 17% of America's beforehand purchase volume. That is a decrease of 60% compared with the average level of the last ten years.

Dropping of soy bean market quotations during Trump's recent trade war on China (above)
and his allegations of earlier losses before his presidency (below) and that should be the
reason for a 12 billion $ governmental aid for US soy bean farmers. Recent losses due to
Trump are partly smoothed by an increase of European soy bean imports.


近年来在美国爆发页岩革命大伙应该不会陌生,美国的原油产量也是逐年上升。 其实,相比较页岩油,页岩气对对全球能源市场影响更大。

美国页岩油还只是能降低美国对进口石油的依赖,但页岩气不同, 不仅仅可以完全满足国内对天然气的需求,还可以对全世界进行出口。

The impact of natural gas imports by the European Union:
If it can be said that soy bean imports are effecting the Sino-American trade war, then imports of natural gas are closely linked with Russia.

In recent years, the shale [oil] revolution broke out in America, and with which everybody should be familiar. US crude oil production has risen as well year after year. In fact, the influence of shallow oil and shallow gas on the global markets of energy resources relatively increased.

While US shallow oil can only reduce America's dependence from oil imports, shallow gas is different as it cannot only completely satisfy the country's domestic demand, but can be globally exported.

[Opinion from FX168 财经网, a Chinese network for finance and economics, on July 26, 2018]


Voices from the Underground :

While US vice-president Mike Pence proposed 'Jesus Care' replacing Obama Health Care (left),
Russia's president Putin allegedly enjoyed a fantastic deal when 'Buying American' (right).


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