News Report from India TV: In a session of the United Nations Security Council, China showed its support for an international call on Russia to enable further grain exports from Ukraine.
By the way, it should be added that India belongs to the countries unwilling to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China's deputy UN ambassador Geng Shuang said that he hoped Russia and the UN would work together to resume grain exports from both countries at "an early date" for maintaining international food security and alleviating the food crisis in developing countries.
This is the mildest form of protest China is willing to express in order to critisize its long-standing partner Russia.
On the same day, the Chinese news center NetEase published an article that clarifies China's strategy in its fight for supremacy against the West. As usual, NetEase marked that article as kind of 'personal opinion' and denies any responsibility.
The Russo-Ukraine war created a good opportunity for us. Russia, which has been sanctioned, has a better and better relationship with us. Crude oil and natural gas are sold to us cheaply, and the two sides have negotiated several big deals.
A large amount of resources have been imported into our country, which has also benefited our people. The Russo-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than a year, and our gasoline prices are basically stable. In contrast, in Europe, gasoline prices have soared, various living costs have also increased rapidly, and society has become turbulent.
In order to contain Russia, the United States is forced to relax its containment of our country, creating a good opportunity for our economic recovery. Therefore, for us, Russia cannot lose, and its defeat is not in the interests of our country.
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In order to understand different strategic positions of China and India in comparison with those of rich Western countries, the global development of industrial production might be a key factor, as economic aspects have always driven geopolitical decisions.
Some Chinese language open platform on economy [爱集微] put it that way, using the followwing title for their related article published on July 17:
经济学人：欧美政客重金押注芯片和新能源，但他们注定会失望
The Economist: European and American politicians bet heavily on chips and new energy, but they are destined to be disappointed
In Western countries, the goal is to reverse the trend of industrial decline, which voters feel deeply important. As a share of global economic output, manufacturing has fallen from 19 per cent in 1997 to 16 per cent today, with the largest declines in rich countries. In China and India, industry's share of economic output appears to be about the same as it was three decades ago, but even in these countries, industry's share has declined in recent years.
The video, named Europe's Deindustrialization: Ukraine War's Ripple Effect [Asia Times], presents an intelligent perception of the subject by David Woo, some Wall Street expert of Chinese extraction. It seems to support the above quoted Chinese article in a certain way.
Here some excerpts from different Chinese sources that published their reports about the 2nd Ukrainian attack, targeting the strategically important Kerch Bridge in Russian occupied Crimea on July 17. They are quoting today's news from China's CCTV (July 19).
"A span of the highway section of the Crimea Bridge has been destroyed beyond repair," said Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin of the Russian Federation in charge of transport. In addition, "one rail of the bridge was slightly damaged." After the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was bombed, how to restore traffic with the Crimea Peninsula became a top priority.
The Chinese source emphasizes that US satellites are obviously monitoring every move in the Russian-Ukrainian war theater almost 24 hours a day.
The Crimea Bridge was damaged again in the early morning of the 17th, resulting in two deaths, one injury, and damage to the road surface of the bridge. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin said on the 18th that the destroyed bridge section leading to Kerch must be dismantled, and the materials and components needed for repair have been shipped from Togliatti [former Stavropol in Samara Oblast] on the 17th. Since the pier is located between the car lane and the railway lane, floating cranes cannot be used, and a 250-meter-long temporary bridge needs to be built. This work is expected to take 2 months. It is initially estimated that the repair cost may be 1 billion to 1.3 billion rubles (about 80 million to 100 million yuan).
On July 1st, the Iranian news center Tasnim quoted 'military-diplomatic sources' in Damascus, Syria, on the formation of Kurdish volunteers by Ukrainian experts inside Syria, in what is referred to as 'terrorist structures'. It is about both, countering Russian presence in Syria and preparing Kurdish fighters for a later deployment in Ukraine. The original text message from Iran is as follows:
Furthermore, the source revealed that American and Ukrainian intelligence officers hold regular joint consultations in Iraq to address the issue of countering the Russian presence in Syria. It was also disclosed that a decision has been made to double the number of 'terrorist structures' in the region.
According to the source, Ukrainian experts trained at US bases in Iraq are currently providing training to recruited militants who will be sent to Ukraine at a later stage. The source highlighted that the Ukrainian consul in the Kurdish Autonomous Region in Iraq is typically entrusted with the task of recruiting militants and facilitating their transfer to Syria.
Notably, recent meetings between US forces and armed factions from Arab tribes in Al-Hasakah and Raqqa in Syria have intensified. These meetings aim to coordinate efforts with the militants, raising questions about the nature of this movement and the potential resurgence of tensions along the Syrian-Iraqi border.
At the same time, tensions between the US side and Russia's air force in Syria seem to rise as has been reported by Kurdistan 24, a Kurdish news center on June 22:
In a briefing to journalists [in Washington], U.S. Air Force Lt. General Alexus Grynkewich, who heads CENTCOM’s Combined Forces Air Component, explained how the war in Ukraine is exacerbating tensions in northeastern Syria, where the U.S. supports the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against ISIS. ..........
Asked by Kurdistan 24 if Russia’s aggressive posture toward U.S. forces in Syria might relate to its aggression against Ukraine, Grynkewich seemed to agree, providing several examples.
He suggested that Russia’s air force in Syria had become more aggressive “perhaps as a way to compensate for the fact that they have had to move capability and capacity out of Syria in order to support the war in Ukraine.”
Grynkewich also suggested that the difficulties Russia is facing in Ukraine may be contributing to reckless behavior by its pilots.
Editor's Comment:
I created this blogspot in order to shed some light on an alleged 'deployment of Kurdish mercenaries in Ukraine', a topic discussed by different Chinese media some days earlier.
As to the credibility of Russian sources, quoted by the Chinese, I have my seconds thoughts. Same goes with the Iranian news center:
Trying to verify any information given here, I stumbled on the fact that this article was only available in English. While other daily subjects of high importance usually go with a translation into other regional idioms like Arabic, Farsi or Hebrew, this was obviously not the case.
In a subsequent search of the net I therefore used keywords in Arabic, but without any relevant result. Among lots of Arabic sources of each provenance there was simply no (= zero) additional information on the subject coming from the region. I might have overlooked something of minor importance, but I don't believe so. So I come to think that this is just another disinformation campaign, as I already indicated in my last blogspot.
[By the way, I even found the Arabic version of a Tasnim article on Syria challenging the US in front of the United Nations Security Council for inflicting damage on Syria, including 100 billion US dollars of economic losses. That information had been quoted by the Chinese. => Compare last blogspot of mine !]
Syrian Ambassador Sabbagh during a session of the UN Security Council [Tasnim, Jan. 25, 2023]
On June 30, local time, RIA Novosti quoted sources from Syria as saying that the US authorities began recruiting armed forces from Syria to support Ukraine. To this end, relevant personnel of the US Central Intelligence Agency are negotiating with the Kurdish armed forces and some tribes in Syria. [Chinese news published on 1st July]
Another Chinese source, published the same day, is stressing that Ukrainian forces might be running out of active soldiers, referring to 'heavy losses' but, as well, to lots of Ukrainian 'citizens fleeing the country'.
As to the Ukrainian refugees now flooding West European countries, I should add that these are entirely women and children. Young male adults are forbidden to leave Ukraine and are, therefore, either joining the army or waiting to be called to the weapons. And this is just what happens.
Russia's media information is difficult to believe. In fact, the US position in Syria seems to be rather delicate such as US troops can neither advance nor retreat in a war against, both, the Islamic State (ISIS) and Iranian-backed groups in a semi-autonomous region, run by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish group. It looks as if the US are essentially relying on their Kurdish allies in some kind of perpetual war that cannot be won. How then send away their most able Kurdish partners in combat to Ukraine ?
The following information is the gist of an article published on June 15 by Jonathan Guyer, a foreign policy, national security, and global affairs editor for VOX News:
Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that troops are needed because “if you completely ignore and turn your back, then you’re setting the conditions for a resurgence.”
But experts say that the US troops there are not building toward a sustainable outcome, and that resisting ISIS has become the pretext for a perpetual US presence.
“It’s a strategy that just makes no sense,” says Robert Ford, who served as US ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014. “The real way forward is not leaving 900 troops to play whack-a-mole in eastern Syria.”
Ford explains that the American mission to secure the outright defeat of ISIS is impossible. The 900 troops in the northeast of Syria and the US garrison at al-Tanf cannot stop a low level of recruitment into ISIS ranks. “So we can bomb some and we can kill some, but they'll always replace the people that they lose,” he told me. “This is a classic forever war.”
Anyway, it is difficult to understand why US units in Syria and their Kurdish allies should get into the focus of recruiters in need of loyal mercenaries for a deployment in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Instead, the whole story seems to be fabricated by the Russian side which follows different policies in the Syrian conflict and would welcome everything useful to weaken the US position there.
And there is another reason for the US to stay in Syria: It's the oil and gas fields that have to be 'secured' by US and allied military. Of course, US legitimacy for that can be questioned, but it's just another reason for the US to stay, as an earlier Chinese article indicated on June 16:
In December 2022, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the Chairman of the UN Security Council, pointing out that the illegal presence of U.S. troops and the opposition forces supported by the United States have continued to smuggle Syrian oil and other resources and destroy Syrian infrastructure, which has caused 25.9 billion US Dollars damage to Syria in direct economic losses and of 86 billion US Dollars in indirect economic losses.
"We keep the military for the oil"
Many analysts pointed out that the U.S. military came here uninvited and refused to leave, and they did so for the oil here. However, the income from that oil was originally intended to improve the livelihood of the Syrian people, and Syrian oil has never belonged to the United States.
Extended oil and gas fields, as well as wheat in the northeastern provinces of Syria
On June 27, the Austrian paper 'Der Standard' published an article about Jewgeni Serebrjakow, prominent member of Russia's hacker group 'Sandworm'. Here some excerpts from the German language publication in the English and Chinese version:
In April 2018, Yevgeny Serebryakov and three other Russian agents are standing in a parking lot in The Hague, the Netherlands, with a lot of hacking equipment in his rental car. The men have a plan: they want to hack into the Wi-Fi in the nearby building of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). At that time, the OPCW was investigating whether the Assad regime, which was allied with Russia, had used poison gas against civilians.
But before the hackers can get started, they are surrounded by Dutch agents who had been shadowing Serebryakov and his colleagues. The Dutch confiscate the equipment – cash, mobile phones, laptops – and expel the men from the country. A few months later, the Dutch company held a press conference – and presented photos of the passports used, the rental car and a bag in which the hackers collected their garbage so as not to leave fingerprints in the hotel. It is, there is hardly any other way to put it, a public demonstration of the GRU secret service.
[GRU = Russia's military intelligence service]
However, the same Yevgeny Serebryakov now leads one of the most dangerous hacking groups in the world: Sandworms. That's a staggering increase, as sandworm forces play a central role in Russian military intelligence: Ukrainian hackers shut down the grid twice, albeit only for a brief time in 2015 and 2016. Sandworms also play an important role in Russia's war of aggression. In March, the US trade magazine Wired reported on the promotion, and soon after a document appeared on the Internet that was of particular interest to Western intelligence services: a certain Yevgeny Serebryakov's master's thesis on the title: "Information Confrontation in World Politics." In more than 90 pages and 77 footnotes, it explains the meaning behind the clumsy term "information confrontation": it is generally believed not only in Russia that information can be used as a weapon.
Associated Press, CNN and other US media reported that on October 19, local time, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania issued arrest warrants for six Russian hackers. The six wanted hackers belonged to the Sandworm hacker organization which is backed by Russian intelligence agencies. [They had allegedly] carried out cyberattacks on U.S. companies, Ukrainian energy systems, organizers of the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, etc., paralyzing thousands of computers and costing about $1 billion. The U.S. believes the six Russian hackers are behind the NotPetya ransomware.
Leaked IT contractor files detail Kremlin's stockpile of cyber-weapons: The NTC Vulcan Files.
How the 'Washington Post' got their hands on the Vulcan files, leaked from Russia's IT giant.
Wagner is not the only private military company fighting for Russia in Ukraine, nor is its rise a "unique phenomenon". In fact, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the rapid expansion of other Russian private military companies and the birth of numerous mercenary regiments. According to statistics, Russia has more than 30 mercenary regiments.
Many previous analysts said that these corps, which are mostly funded by Russia's rich and powerful, are essentially private armies, and the "power game" behind them is destined to have a "destructive impact" in Russia. In a report on the 24th, Russian media also said that the root cause of "Wagner" from "henchman to henchman" is that these private military companies wander in the vacuum of Russian law, coupled with a series of entanglements such as money and power.
...........
An assessment report by the U.S. War Research Institute in October last year pointed out that Prigozhin occupies a "uniquely advantageous position in the Russian state structure and information space", which makes him more likely than a senior Russian military commander to conduct military operations in Russia and "expand his legal frame". Not only that, but Prigozhin is also free to "promote" himself and his troops, and at the same time "criticize Russian government officials or the Russian armed forces without fear of retaliation."
As Wagner has rapidly grown into a mainstay of the Russian government's allied force, its role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has grown, perhaps best exemplified by a legal overhaul earlier this year. In March, a law prohibiting "defamation or censorship of the Russian armed forces" was expanded to include "mercenaries and volunteers".
..........
Russia's largest energy giant holds at least 4 teams.
After being appointed as the administrator of the prison in the Russian-controlled area of Ukraine in November last year, Ukrainian pro-Russian businessman Armen Sarkisyan planned to use his position and learn from the recruitment model of the 'Wagner' group to set up a private military company. Ukraine claims the company was funded by Russian billionaire Samwell Karapetian. Karapetian is the owner of Tahir Holding, a subcontractor for Gazprom.
The most critical thing is that Russia's largest energy giant Gazprom has also formed a number of mercenary groups. At least three private military companies linked to Gazprom, known as 'Torch', 'Torrent' and 'Fortress', have been fighting alongside Russian forces inside Ukraine, according to reports.
Among them, 'Fortress' is the only company whose scale and experience are close to 'Wagner'. It is reported that the organization has existed for several years. It previously provided security for infrastructure projects in Syria. It was originally small in scale, but it has been actively "recruiting troops" after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
A similar article, dealing with the same subject, was published the same day by some other regional news center (above).
.........................
It's about sabotage of the North Stream pipelines that should have provided Germany
with natural gas delivered by Russia's GAZPROM. After the beginning of Russia's full-
fledged attack on Ukraine, Germany froze the project and enforced the construction of
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals to ensure energy supply independent from Russia.
Today, there are two Chinese media reports of importance, the first dealing with Prigozhin, leader of Russia's influential Wagner militia:
The conflict between the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group and the Russian army was ultimately irreconcilable. On June 23, Wagner leader Prigorzhin publicly accused Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov, saying that the two were trying to "strangle Wagner" and ordered the Russian army to attack the camp of Wagner's troops. So he wanted to "severely punish" the two of them. Subsequently, Prigorzhin, in the name of "the side of the Qing emperor"(*), wants to march into Moscow to "seek justice", and had already led troops into Rostov in southern Russia.
(*) = Chinese proverb used to depict a warlord who is allegedly still in support
of the emperor's cause while resisting the claims of the emperor's army.
Although many Russian generals came forward to appease the Wagner Group and tried to prevent Prigozhin’s actions, judging from the current situation, Prigozhin’s control over this mercenary armed force is very strong, and it is not the Russian army that can shake it off. Prigozhin also claimed that Wagner troops shot down a Russian helicopter during the expedition, implying that the "merger" had begun. In this regard, the Rostov region has issued a warning, requiring residents to stay at home, saying that law enforcement agencies would ensure the safety of locals.
The Chinese source comes to the following conclusion:
Prigozhin is being seen as a warlord who tries to bargain a deal with the Russian military in order to remain unchallenged in his position as "chief of the emperor's private army". It is worth to have a closer look, as well, on the very special relationship between Putin and Prigozhin, both sharing a similar past in St. Petersburg from where Putin rose to the commanding heights of state and Prigozhin founded a chain of exclusive gourmet restaurants, so that he became known in the public as "Putin's cook".
不过，俄罗斯已经定性普里戈任的行动是“武装叛乱”，发起了刑事立案。莫斯科所有重要机关、交通枢纽都出现了全副武装的士兵进行守卫，装甲车也现身街头，整体气氛非常紧张。
However, Russia has characterized Prigozhin's actions as an "armed rebellion" and initiated a criminal case. All important institutions and transportation hubs in Moscow were guarded by heavily armed soldiers, and armored vehicles also appeared on the streets. The overall atmosphere was described as very tense.
Armoured cars and armed soldiers in the streets of Mosccow to protect official buildings after
the conflict between Prigozhin's Wagner militia and Russia's army finally escalated last night.
- TVBS News, Taiwan -
..... Judging from the current situation, Russia is not a single piece of steel, and there are great differences among the various armed forces. If the Prigozhin issue is not resolved quickly and Ukraine and NATO take the opportunity to attack, Russia will really fall into a situation of "internal and external troubles".
Prigozin turned his back and directed his troops from Rostov-on-Don to the city of Voronezh,
pointing his sword at Moscow. Russian security sources are saying Wagner's army had taken
control of all military installations in the city of Voronezh, about 500 km south of Moscow.
据《莫斯科时报》24日报道，这是俄军在俄南部高速公路M4上袭击“瓦格纳”车队的视频截图
According to the "Moscow Times" and reported on the 24th, this is a video screenshot of
the Russian army's attack on the "Wagner" convoy on the southern Russian M4 highway.
After talks with Belarus president Lukashenko, Prigozhin agrees to stop his troops' advance
on Moscow to avoid bloodshed. Instead, he vows to send his troops back to their bases, after
having already been pretty close to Moscow. [Breaking News on Al-Jazeera at 07:00 PM CET]
Whatever Prigozhin accepted when he finally caved in, he lost that round in the fight for power.
More important, however, is the damage he inflicted on Vladimir Putin who just lost his nimbus
as the uncontested leader of Russia. [Common opinion of several foreign media on June 24]
Last news of the day .....
Russian law enforcement officers found 4 billion rubles (about 343 million yuan)
in a car near Prigozhin's St. Petersburg office. Prigozhin confirmed this was kind
of "daily expenses" for the Wagner group.
...............
Recent proceedings of Ukrainian units according to Prigozhin. The situation should be very serious for Russia and even locals were allegedly shocked.
On May 24, 2023, some Chinese publication dealt with the consequences large-scale implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) would have on different groups of employees. However things are more complicated and far-reaching to be discussed in the frame of a single blogspot. So let me just quote some basic ideas extracted from that publication.
Within Ten Years, Two Types of People Won't be Replaced
Since the release of ChatGPT in February, there has been a blockbuster order almost every day, connecting to the Microsoft family bucket for a while, and connecting to third-party application plug-ins for a while. The latest blockbuster is to unseal and connect to the Internet.
ChatGPT has many functions, including 49 functions in the fields of program language conversion, story creation, code, brainstorming, RE text sentiment analysis, and advertisement design. In summary, there are 7 major application scenarios: application and layout, search and data analysis, program generation and analysis, text generation, content creation, general reasoning and others.
In order to survive in the times of AI, it becomes essential to master three digital capabilities: knowledge, creation, operation on the job.
First, the ability to acquire all kinds of knowledge you never imagined before you might need.
Second, the ability to create works, including text, images, audio codes, and more.
Third, empower operational capabilities. AI can generate various processes, designs, business plans, and marketing collaboration processes. That demands you to use AI in order to make business proceedings running more smoothly in your daily routine.
任正非说，未来只有两种人，一种是熟练使用AI工具的人，另一种是可以生产AI工具的人。
Ren Zhengfei [the founder of HUAWEI] said that there will be only two types of people in the future, one is those who are proficient in using AI tools, and the other is those who can produce AI tools.
After the emergence of AI, many human positions, departments, and industries have been eliminated at once. But compared to AI, humans still have some comparative advantages in skills showing up in three fundamental abilities. From there, three categories of working positions can be described as follows :
The first category is dexterity work which requires manual precision work together with expert knowledge. Precision surgery or arts and crafts could serve as an example.
The second category is creative work. Such work cannot be fully standardized.
The third category is work that requires empathy. You might say that current machines also have empathy, such as intelligent care robots for the elderly, comfort robots, robot girlfriends, and so on. But at present, the gap between robot 'ethics' and human empathy is still very large.
These three types of [working] positions are currently relatively safe and secure. If you do not belong to these three categories, as long as you master the three digital capabilities mentioned above, or quickly become one of the two types of professionals [mentioned by Ren Zhengfei], you can still keep pace with the times.
The question why Japan joined NATO forces in the frame of their Defender 23 drills is driving China. However, opinion from China, as it appears in the quoted article below, should be seen in the frame of Japan recently overhauling its defence strategy in the presence of an increasing danger posed by China. Here is another blogspot of mine dealing with the same subject.
Going back to Japan, although Japan has always been the number one "running dog" of the United States, these are all joint military exercises of NATO countries and quasi-NATO countries. Japan also wants to participate. What is the purpose?
From Japan's point of view, participating in this military exercise can improve the degree of integration with the US-made armaments on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can also familiarize itself with the combat methods of the United States and NATO to prepare for the future. Secondly, for Japan, this military exercise is a way to strengthen its own military power and jump out of the circle of military power limitations. Rules of restriction and limitation for the belligerent Japan, concerning the development of nuclear weapons, the number of troops, and the size of warships are simply unbearable. In the past, the United States strictly limited Japan's military development in order to take care of the emotions of East Asian countries. Now Japan has an increasingly important position in the United States' strategy. The previous restrictions hindered the recovery of Japanese militarism. Now that the chain is loose, we should also be vigilant against the counterattack of Japanese militarism.
For the United States, allowing Japan to participate in this NATO military exercise can better tie Japan to its anti-China and anti-Russia chariot. The second is that although it was said before that NATO would establish an office in Japan, this was opposed by France. Now the United States directly pulls Japan over for joint military exercises, and for France it's not easy to object. The United States can also further strengthen its control over the Asia-Pacific situation.
Editor's Note: It must be added that Japan takes part in the Defender 23 drills only as an observer, same as Sweden which does not yet enjoy full Nato membership. Some Nato circles, however, are favoring the foundation of a Nato office in Japan in order to coordinate common military projects and relations that are already existing. In fact, Japan has more cooperation with European and American allies than may immediately be visible. "No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan," Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in January on a visit to Tokyo.
While the proceedings of Defender 23 Nato drills are rather smoothly going on, here are US voices from Germany where Nato operations should simulate a situation of war in an allied country. The imagined situation: Germany being already partly invaded by an unnamed enemy is trying to defend an East German port from being taken over by that enemy.
I decided to quote an article from ABC News (June 7) where US Ambassador to Germany, Amy Gutman, and the director of the U.S. Air National Guard, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, are putting things more bluntly than German sources usually would do. Here is what they are saying, together with a raw translation of their words into Chinese:
First a diplomatic view:
“This is an exercise that would be absolutely impressive to anybody who’s watching, and we don’t make anybody watch it,” U.S. Ambassador to Germany Amy Gutmann said.
“It will demonstrate beyond a shadow of a doubt the agility and the swiftness of our allied force in NATO as a first responder,” she told reporters in Berlin.
“I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance," Gutmann said.
"And that includes Mr. Putin,” she added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The director of the U.S. Air National Guard, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, said the exercise goes beyond deterrence.
“It's about the readiness of our force. It’s about coordination, not just within NATO, but with our other allies and partners outside of NATO,” he said.
Loh said the exercise would be an opportunity for younger U.S. airmen, many of whom have mainly gotten experience serving in the Middle East, to build relationships with allies in Europe and prepare for a different military scenario.
“So this is about now establishing what it means to go against a great power, in a great power competition,” he said.
美国空军国民警卫队主任迈克尔·A·罗（Michael A. Loh）中将表示，这次演习超越了威慑。
...............
"这是关于我们部队的准备情况。这是关于协调，不仅在北约内部，而且与北约以外的其他盟国和伙伴，"他说。
...............
卢说，这次演习将为年轻的美国飞行员提供一个机会，其中许多人主要在中东服役，与欧洲盟国建立关系并为不同的军事场景做准备。
...............
"所以这是关于现在确定在大国竞争中对抗大国意味着什么，"他说。
June 14: German National Radio DW on the presentation of Germany's first
National Security Concept by Chancellor Scholz and four of his ministers.
德国第一件国家安全提纲（德国国家广播电台DW）
Based on the attack of Russian territory at Belgorod on June 2, some Chinese media comment, published June 10, comes to the following conclusion : It is not looking too good for Russia.
That evaluation is founded on the idea that the Belgorod incident, even though restricted to one single region, is revealing essential shortcomings of both, Russia's military forces and Russia's politics. It therefore comes to the conclusion that Russia's position should not be looked at with any optimism.
Title: Russia's Belgorod region was attacked 107 times in 24 hours.
One: Russia's desire to completely defeat Ukraine is nowhere in sight. It is said that there is no hope, no possibility. I'm afraid it cannot be said to be realistic. After fighting for more than a year, [Russia] not only failed to achieve a repressive victory, but also experienced its own territory being attacked by the Ukrainian side. [phrase based on a Chinese proverb]
Second: [Only consider that] Russian attacks on Ukraine were allowed to go unchecked, comprising 107 attacks within 24 hours. Then just imagine the Ukrainian side launching a [similar] attack and the Russian side failed to suppress it in time while the Ukrainian side was only allowed to attack with artillery fire. Such a situation is really not optimistic.
Third: The Russian border is in a severe state of emptiness. Belgorod is a border city of Russia, and the Ukrainian side used artillery and mortars to attack the [Russian] state. In other words, it was a close range attack. To put it bluntly, it was an attack launched from the Ukrainian border city adjacent to Russian territory. To compare the border forces of both sides, the Ukrainian side could make 107 attacks within 24 hours. The Russian side let them go and was beaten passively. It can be seen that Russia's military strength on the border is severely lacking.
Based on the above told facts, the Chinese commentator draws a rather gloomy picture of Russia's position in its war on Ukraine. However, this is only a single person's opinion.
Editor's opinion: Speaking of myself as somebody who already encountered different Chinese opinions regarding Putin's war on Ukraine, I came to think that such pluralistic treatment of the subject is rather unusual in an evironment lacking the total freedom of press. This should only be possible, if China's leadership had their own problems of coming to terms with Putin's war policy. And there is much at stake for China in the frame of its 'road and belt' policies in Central and Western Asia.
According to China's CCTV news, on June 9 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first evaluation of the Ukrainian army's counterattack in Sochi. Putin said the Ukrainian army had launched a counteroffensive and that the Ukrainian army had used its strategic reserves, but it failed to achieve any of its intended goals.
On the eve of the counter-attack [i.e. June 8], some 'military editor' from Shandong province wrote that Russia has deployed thousands of FPV suicide-drones named 'Warrior 40' at the front-line during the last days.
The 'Warrior 40' drone seeems to be a modified civilian four-axis drone being able to drop a bomb. It has a flight distance of about 12 kilometers, a battery life of 35 minutes, and can carry 2.5 kilograms of ammunition. In terms of weight alone, it is heavier than a 60 mm mortar shell. From the perspective of charge, the charge of the Warrior 40's high-explosive warhead is estimated to be at least 2 kg, which is heavier than that of some 80 mm mortar shells. But in general, its power should be equivalent to an 80 mm mortar shell.
Above: Russian 'Warrior 40' drones approaching their targets. Below: Similar war drones deployed by the Ukrainian army.
The IISS Shangri-la Dialogue is Asia's premier defence summit. It’s a unique meeting where ministers debate the region’s most pressing security challenges, engage in important bilateral talks and come up with fresh approaches together. The 2023 event took place in Singapore on 2–4 June. Here is a brandnew report from the meeting by China's People's Daily 人民日报 :
People's Daily, June 5, 2023 – Yesterday, June 4, State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu delivered a speech at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue on the topic of "China's New Security Initiative".
Li Shangfu stressed: Taiwan is China's Taiwan, and how to resolve the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people's own affair, and no outside forces should be allowed to interfere. The DPP [i.e. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party] authorities' "coercion of foreigners to seek independence" and external forces "using Taiwan to contain China" are the biggest troublemakers in changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will not hesitate in the slightest, will not be afraid of any opponent, and will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity no matter what the cost.
This comes shortly after a new incident in the Taiwan Strait when a US navy ship was blocked by some Chinese warship and which led to a dangerous encounter between both vessels.
After the incident, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin surprisingly approached China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the Shangri-la meeting and shook hands with him. However, there was no subsequent discussion of the naval incident between both sides.
To begin with the essential facts. Here is what everybody should know about the BRICS Alliance :
The BRICS countries are a cooperation mechanism composed of China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. These five countries have 25.24% of the global GDP, 42% of the foreign exchange reserves, 26.46% of the total territory, and nearly 42% of the population. One of their projected purposes is to replace the incumbent US$ currency standard by an adequate alternative, thus reducing economic dependencies of developing nations from the USA. While Russia is being occupied with waging war on Ukraine and struggling with Western sanctions, China seems to be the true global power behind BRICS and which is pulling the strings by now.
As the BRICS countries begin to play an increasingly important role on the international stage, capacity expansion has become a hot topic among the five BRICS countries. According to South African officials, currently 13 countries have formally submitted applications for membership, and 6 countries have informally expressed their intention to join. That process of expansion, however, is going to be tedious and time-consuming.
Here is what Tencent Network 腾讯网 wrote today (June 3) about expected development and basic intentions of the BRICS Alliance, as seen from a Chinese point of view :
Faced with the rapid development of the BRICS countries, some countries began to panic. According to Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun", 19 countries line up to join the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries will absorb more and more developing countries to join, and gradually gain the strength to compete with the Group of Seven (G7).
Japanese media lamented that for developed countries, the BRICS countries may become a "difficult existence" in the future. Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey and other countries were invited to participate in the Hiroshima G7 summit not long ago, but now they all intend to become a member of the BRICS.
The United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other oil-producing countries have also applied to join the BRICS countries, which means that the BRICS countries will control more than half of the world's natural gas and oil. The BRICS mechanism will play an increasingly important role in the global energy sector.
Moreover, the BRICS countries will likely absorb many Asian, African and Latin American countries that have been marginalized by the Western world. Brazil has always wanted South American countries to join the BRICS. Brazilian President Lula met with Venezuelan President Maduro a few days ago and made it clear that he would support Venezuela in becoming a member of the BRICS.
In addition, Brazil regards Argentina, the second largest country in South America, as a "strategic neighbor" and pushes it to join the BRICS. If Argentina and other South American countries become members of the BRICS, other countries in the region will also have the idea of joining the BRICS.
India - A Swaggering Candidate ....
India seems to have some difficulties with BRICS expansion. It fears a loss of importance in the presence of other developing nations owing a similar potential.
Bloomberg reported that India hopes to reach an agreement on the BRICS expansion process, so as to obtain assurances that China and its allies will not "squeeze" India to a secondary position.
In fact, our country [i.e. China] has always sought to carry out practical cooperation with other countries, and has never excluded any country. However, if India will only delay the formation of decision-making in the BRICS mechanism and interfere with the cooperation of other countries, more and more countries will take the initiative to put India aside.
US Decay Led to the Rise of BRICS
Instead of naming it a confrontation between the West and BRICS, the Chinese source is stressing that BRICS came into being as an alternative for nations on the rise to a Western dominated alliance, already weakened by US decay.
The American media saw the decline of the United States from the development and growth of the BRICS countries. Some American media believe that since so many countries want to join the BRICS mechanism, this may reflect a trend in the current international situation. Emerging economic forces are launching a "challenge" to the original economic forces.
According to a report released by Gallup, the international leadership of the United States is weakening, and China has surpassed the United States in many aspects. Moreover, from a long-term perspective, the world no longer trusts the United States, and does not expect the United States to regain the trust of other countries by changing its own image.
In this general environment, many countries have begun to seek broader resources, markets, and global governance solutions by joining cooperative organizations such as the BRICS mechanism. Therefore, the BRICS can strengthen leadership in regional and global governance through expansion.
Editor's Comment
US decay partly enabled the unprecedented economic and political rise of China, as well as Russia's imperialism in its regions of interest. In addition, US politics, namely under president Trump, fostered a dangerous development in Iran and North Korea. As a result, even long-standing partners in Europe are showing their disappointment of what is happening in the States now.
Seeing itself at the center of a democratic alliance, at times referred to as the "Community of Democracies" or a "Concert of Democracies", US leaders forgot the necessity to attract other countries by alternatives rather than exclude them by sanctions.
National interests, not ideology, should therefore be the guiding compass for US policy. Some US source I recently encountered put it like this: Instead of simply relying on an alliance of hand-picked democracies, there should be a coalition of open and resilient economies (CORE).
Looking at BRICS that's just what China and Russia have in mind as far as it concerns the unhampered economic development of BRICS member countries. The BRICS concept, however, wilfully excludes all those aspects related to democratic development and human rights. This could become the critical point of decision for developing nations as soon as Western alliances were able to realize the CORE concept. - Ulysses -
