Niger - The Russian Aspect of the Coup

UPDATE included on August 4.

Yesterday, July 30, the Arabic news center El-AIN العين from the Emirates stressed the pro-Russian aspect of mass demonstrations directed against France, Niger's former colonial power. They are asking the following question:

انقلاب النيجر.. هل مخطط من "فاغنر" للإطاحة بفرنسا؟
The Niger Coup - What is the Wagner [group's] plan to subdue France ?

متظاهرون أمام السفارة الفرنسية بنيامي

وحاول بعض المتظاهرين اقتحام مبنى السفارة بينما انتزع آخرون اللوحة التي تحمل عبارة "سفارة فرنسا في النيجر" وداسوا عليها ووضعوا مكانها علمي روسيا والنيجر وسط هتافات "تحيا روسيا" و"لتسقط فرنسا".

وكانت "رابطة الضباط من أجل الأمن الدولي" التي تعتبرها الولايات المتحدة واجهة لمجموعة فاغنر في جمهورية أفريقيا الوسطى، بثت تسجيلاً صوتياً نسبته لزعيمها يفغيني بريغوجين مساء الخميس، يؤكد فيه أن محاولة الانقلاب في النيجر "كفاح ضد المستعمرين".

ويمكن التعرّف من خلال المقطع المنشور على تطبيق تليغرام على صوت بريغوجين ونبرته، لكن لم يتمكن مراسلو وكالة فرانس برس من التأكد من صحة التسجيل تمامًا. ومنذ 26 يونيو/حزيران الماضي بعد محاولة تمرده الفاشلة في روسيا لم يصدر رئيس فاغنر أي إعلان رسمي على حسابات منظمته.

Demonstrations in front of the French Embassy in Niamey

Some of the demonstrators tried to storm the embassy building, while others grabbed the plaque bearing the phrase "France's Embassy in Niger" and trampled on it, placing the flags of Russia and Niger in its place, amid chants of "Long live Russia" and "Down with France."

The "Association of Officers for International Security," which the United States considers a front for the Wagner Group in the Central African Republic, broadcast an audio recording attributed to its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Thursday evening, confirming that the coup attempt in Niger is "a struggle against the colonialists."

Prigozhin's voice and tone can be identified from the clip posted on Telegram, but AFP reporters were unable to verify the authenticity of the recording. Since last June 26, after his failed rebellion attempt in Russia, Wagner's president has not made any official announcement on his organization's accounts.

My UPDATE on August 4 is quoting an earlier article about Wagner chief Prigozhin, deliberating on the Niger coup and the fight against colonialism. It was published by the Saudi government near paper Al-Shark Al-Awsad (The Middle-East) الشرق الأوسط two days before, on July 28.

Russia Strikes Grain Port on Border to NATO Member

Russia’s surgical strike on the Moldovan-Romanian-Ukrainian Tri-Border on July 24 damaged Ukraine's grain port of Reni [Рени] on river Danube, - only within a stone's throw away from NATO territory. The West remained silent.

Russian forces targeting Ukraine's grain port of Reni [Рени]
right on the Danube river border to NATO member Romania.




Another video of Ukrainian military origin, hosted on a pro-Ukrainian twitter account and showing the moment of attack on Reni port more directly, couldn't be linked to this site for technical reasons. It is quoted by europereloaded on some military analysis website, dated July 25.

_____________________________________________________

The Consequences: Rising Prices for Grain and Fertilizer

The below quoted information comes from Phenix Net and refers to (official) information from Beijing.

On July 25, Russia launched an air strike on Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine further escalated. And just the day before, Russia bombed the port of Reni on the Danube River in Ukraine, near the Romanian border, causing irreversible damage to the port and making it impossible to continue to use it. This port was once used by Ukraine as the last port for grain export after the black sea grain export agreement was interrupted. an alternate channel. In addition to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine’s shipping ports were completely blocked, and its grain exports through land transport and inland rivers were also boycotted by five neighboring countries. Ukrainian food is also difficult to export. Ukraine is a major grain producer and exporter in the world. Affected by the further intensification of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, the global prices of major grain futures such as wheat, corn, and soybeans have risen to varying degrees. On July 24, the Bloomberg Grain Sub-Index rose 5.02%. CBOT (*) corn futures rose 6.45%; wheat futures rose 8.6%; soybean futures rose 1.68%. Industry insiders said that with the sharp rise in international grain prices again, the prices of the three major fertilizers, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, which are necessary for grain cultivation, may be further affected and are expected to stabilize and rise. Among them, due to the higher concentration and stronger monopoly of global potassium resources, and being at the core of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it affects SINOTRANS (*) in Russia and Belarus, the main suppliers of potassium fertilizers. This event has a more positive impact on potassium fertilizer prices. In addition, one of the most direct results is that farmers in some countries will profitably sell futures to lock in grain sales prices, ensuring the planting area and increasing the demand for potassium fertilizers, which will also support the continuous rise in potassium fertilizer prices.

* SINOTRANS: Sinotrans Ltd. is a logistics enterprise under China Merchants Group and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 中國外運股份有限公司（简称“中国外运”）是招商局集团下属的物流企业，在上交所和港交所挂牌上市。

* CBOT: The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is a designated contract market offering products subject to CBOT rules and regulations.

While the above text is quoting CBOT, here are latest market prices from another source, published by Easy Net on July 26:

The impact of rising food prices on Africa's population as a result of Russia obstructing any grain export from Ukraine, became a subject of discussion on the 2nd Russian-African Summit in Saint Petersburg in July 2023. On July 28 Al-Jazeera therefore dealt with the subject in the following evaluation.

اعتماد غالبية الدول الأفريقية على واردات القمح الروسي والأوكراني؛ فعلى سبيل المثال يعتمد الصومال وبنين اعتمادا كاملا على البلدين، في حين تستورد مصر ما يزيد على 80% من احتياجاتها منهما، تليها السودان بـ75% ثم الكونغو 69% والسنغال 66%، وفق تقارير.

The majority of African countries rely on imports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat; for example, Somalia and Benin are completely dependent on the two countries. Egypt imports more than 80% of its needs, followed by Sudan with 75%, Congo with 69% and Senegal with 66%, according to reports.

UNO - China Calls on "Fellow Traveler" Russia to Comply

News Report from India TV: In a session of the United Nations Security Council, China showed its support for an international call on Russia to enable further grain exports from Ukraine.

By the way, it should be added that India belongs to the countries unwilling to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

China's deputy UN ambassador Geng Shuang said that he hoped Russia and the UN would work together to resume grain exports from both countries at "an early date" for maintaining international food security and alleviating the food crisis in developing countries.

This is the mildest form of protest China is willing to express in order to critisize its long-standing partner Russia.

On the same day, the Chinese news center NetEase published an article that clarifies China's strategy in its fight for supremacy against the West. As usual, NetEase marked that article as kind of 'personal opinion' and denies any responsibility.

而俄乌战争，就给我们制造了一个良机。被制裁的俄罗斯，和我们的关系也越来越好，原油天然气等便宜出售给我们，双方谈成了好几笔大单子。

大量的资源输入我国，也造福了我们人民。俄乌战争开战一年多，我们的汽油价格基本稳定，而反观欧洲地区，汽油价格飙升，各项生活成本也迅速增加，社会随之变得动荡不安。

The Russo-Ukraine war created a good opportunity for us. Russia, which has been sanctioned, has a better and better relationship with us. Crude oil and natural gas are sold to us cheaply, and the two sides have negotiated several big deals.

A large amount of resources have been imported into our country, which has also benefited our people. The Russo-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than a year, and our gasoline prices are basically stable. In contrast, in Europe, gasoline prices have soared, various living costs have also increased rapidly, and society has become turbulent.

..........

为了遏制俄罗斯，美国被迫放松对我国的遏制，给我们经济恢复创造良机。因此，对于我们来说，俄罗斯，是不能输的，他的战败并不符合我国的利益。

In order to contain Russia, the United States is forced to relax its containment of our country, creating a good opportunity for our economic recovery. Therefore, for us, Russia cannot lose, and its defeat is not in the interests of our country.

____________________________________

In order to understand different strategic positions of China and India in comparison with those of rich Western countries, the global development of industrial production might be a key factor, as economic aspects have always driven geopolitical decisions.

Some Chinese language open platform on economy [爱集微] put it that way, using the followwing title for their related article published on July 17:

经济学人：欧美政客重金押注芯片和新能源，但他们注定会失望
The Economist: European and American politicians bet heavily on chips and new energy, but they are destined to be disappointed

在西方国家，目标是扭转工业衰退的趋势，这一点选民们深感其重要性。作为全球经济产出的一部分，制造业的占比已从1997年的19%下降至今天的16%，其中富裕国家的下降幅度最大。在中国和印度，工业在经济产出中的份额似乎与三十年前相差不大，但即使在这些国家，近年来工业的份额也有所下降（参见图表1）。

In Western countries, the goal is to reverse the trend of industrial decline, which voters feel deeply important. As a share of global economic output, manufacturing has fallen from 19 per cent in 1997 to 16 per cent today, with the largest declines in rich countries. In China and India, industry's share of economic output appears to be about the same as it was three decades ago, but even in these countries, industry's share has declined in recent years.



The video, named Europe's Deindustrialization: Ukraine War's Ripple Effect [Asia Times], presents an intelligent perception of the subject by David Woo, some Wall Street expert of Chinese extraction. It seems to support the above quoted Chinese article in a certain way.

Ukraine - Bigger Damage Inflicted on Crimean Bridge

Here some excerpts from different Chinese sources that published their reports about the 2nd Ukrainian attack, targeting the strategically important Kerch Bridge in Russian occupied Crimea on July 17. They are quoting today's news from China's CCTV (July 19).

主管交通运输的俄罗斯联邦副总理马拉特·胡斯努林说：“克里米亚大桥公路部分的一跨已被摧毁且无法修复”。此外，“大桥的一条铁轨有轻微损坏。”克里米亚刻赤海峡大桥被炸以后，如何恢复与克里米亚半岛的交通成了头等大事。[NetEase]

"A span of the highway section of the Crimea Bridge has been destroyed beyond repair," said Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin of the Russian Federation in charge of transport. In addition, "one rail of the bridge was slightly damaged." After the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was bombed, how to restore traffic with the Crimea Peninsula became a top priority.

The Chinese source emphasizes that US satellites are obviously monitoring every move in the Russian-Ukrainian war theater almost 24 hours a day.

.................

克里米亚大桥17日凌晨再遭破坏，造成两人死亡、一人受伤，大桥公路路面受损。俄罗斯副总理胡斯努林18日表示，须拆除通往刻赤方向被摧毁的桥段，修复所需的材料和构件17日已经从陶里亚蒂[Толья́тти]启运。由于桥墩位于汽车车道和铁路车道之间，无法使用浮吊，需建造一座250米长的临时桥，预计这一工作将耗时2个月。初步预计，修复费用可能为10亿至13亿卢布（约合人民币8000万至1亿元）。[Sohu]

The Crimea Bridge was damaged again in the early morning of the 17th, resulting in two deaths, one injury, and damage to the road surface of the bridge. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin said on the 18th that the destroyed bridge section leading to Kerch must be dismantled, and the materials and components needed for repair have been shipped from Togliatti [former Stavropol in Samara Oblast] on the 17th. Since the pier is located between the car lane and the railway lane, floating cranes cannot be used, and a 250-meter-long temporary bridge needs to be built. This work is expected to take 2 months. It is initially estimated that the repair cost may be 1 billion to 1.3 billion rubles (about 80 million to 100 million yuan).

Ukraine - Diplomatic Activity after 500 Days of War

Security in Lithuania enforced ahead of NATO summit about Ukraine on July 11.


Turkish president Erdogan willing to support Ukraine's entry into NATO after war with Russia.


German language news report on Zelensky's visit to Turkey.

US-Russian Tensions Rising in Syria and Ukraine

On July 1st, the Iranian news center Tasnim quoted 'military-diplomatic sources' in Damascus, Syria, on the formation of Kurdish volunteers by Ukrainian experts inside Syria, in what is referred to as 'terrorist structures'. It is about both, countering Russian presence in Syria and preparing Kurdish fighters for a later deployment in Ukraine. The original text message from Iran is as follows:

Furthermore, the source revealed that American and Ukrainian intelligence officers hold regular joint consultations in Iraq to address the issue of countering the Russian presence in Syria. It was also disclosed that a decision has been made to double the number of 'terrorist structures' in the region.

According to the source, Ukrainian experts trained at US bases in Iraq are currently providing training to recruited militants who will be sent to Ukraine at a later stage. The source highlighted that the Ukrainian consul in the Kurdish Autonomous Region in Iraq is typically entrusted with the task of recruiting militants and facilitating their transfer to Syria.

Notably, recent meetings between US forces and armed factions from Arab tribes in Al-Hasakah and Raqqa in Syria have intensified. These meetings aim to coordinate efforts with the militants, raising questions about the nature of this movement and the potential resurgence of tensions along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

At the same time, tensions between the US side and Russia's air force in Syria seem to rise as has been reported by Kurdistan 24, a Kurdish news center on June 22:

In a briefing to journalists [in Washington], U.S. Air Force Lt. General Alexus Grynkewich, who heads CENTCOM’s Combined Forces Air Component, explained how the war in Ukraine is exacerbating tensions in northeastern Syria, where the U.S. supports the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against ISIS. ..........

Asked by Kurdistan 24 if Russia’s aggressive posture toward U.S. forces in Syria might relate to its aggression against Ukraine, Grynkewich seemed to agree, providing several examples.

He suggested that Russia’s air force in Syria had become more aggressive “perhaps as a way to compensate for the fact that they have had to move capability and capacity out of Syria in order to support the war in Ukraine.”

Grynkewich also suggested that the difficulties Russia is facing in Ukraine may be contributing to reckless behavior by its pilots.

Editor's Comment:
I created this blogspot in order to shed some light on an alleged 'deployment of Kurdish mercenaries in Ukraine', a topic discussed by different Chinese media some days earlier.

As to the credibility of Russian sources, quoted by the Chinese, I have my seconds thoughts. Same goes with the Iranian news center:

Trying to verify any information given here, I stumbled on the fact that this article was only available in English. While other daily subjects of high importance usually go with a translation into other regional idioms like Arabic, Farsi or Hebrew, this was obviously not the case.

In a subsequent search of the net I therefore used keywords in Arabic, but without any relevant result. Among lots of Arabic sources of each provenance there was simply no (= zero) additional information on the subject coming from the region. I might have overlooked something of minor importance, but I don't believe so. So I come to think that this is just another disinformation campaign, as I already indicated in my last blogspot.

[By the way, I even found the Arabic version of a Tasnim article on Syria challenging the US in front of the United Nations Security Council for inflicting damage on Syria, including 100 billion US dollars of economic losses. That information had been quoted by the Chinese. => Compare last blogspot of mine !]

Syrian Ambassador Sabbagh during a session of the UN Security Council [Tasnim, Jan. 25, 2023]

Russian Agency : Kurdish Mercenaries for Ukraine ?

当地时间6月30日，俄新社援引来自叙利亚相关人士的话报道称，美国当局开始从叙利亚境内招募武装力量以支持乌克兰。为此，美国中央情报局的相关人员正同叙境内的库尔德武装力量和一些部落进行谈判。

On June 30, local time, RIA Novosti quoted sources from Syria as saying that the US authorities began recruiting armed forces from Syria to support Ukraine. To this end, relevant personnel of the US Central Intelligence Agency are negotiating with the Kurdish armed forces and some tribes in Syria. [Chinese news published on 1st July]

Another Chinese source, published the same day, is stressing that Ukrainian forces might be running out of active soldiers, referring to 'heavy losses' but, as well, to lots of Ukrainian 'citizens fleeing the country'.

As to the Ukrainian refugees now flooding West European countries, I should add that these are entirely women and children. Young male adults are forbidden to leave Ukraine and are, therefore, either joining the army or waiting to be called to the weapons. And this is just what happens.

Russia's media information is difficult to believe. In fact, the US position in Syria seems to be rather delicate such as US troops can neither advance nor retreat in a war against, both, the Islamic State (ISIS) and Iranian-backed groups in a semi-autonomous region, run by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish group. It looks as if the US are essentially relying on their Kurdish allies in some kind of perpetual war that cannot be won. How then send away their most able Kurdish partners in combat to Ukraine ?

The following information is the gist of an article published on June 15 by Jonathan Guyer, a foreign policy, national security, and global affairs editor for VOX News:

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that troops are needed because “if you completely ignore and turn your back, then you’re setting the conditions for a resurgence.”

But experts say that the US troops there are not building toward a sustainable outcome, and that resisting ISIS has become the pretext for a perpetual US presence.

“It’s a strategy that just makes no sense,” says Robert Ford, who served as US ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014. “The real way forward is not leaving 900 troops to play whack-a-mole in eastern Syria.”

Ford explains that the American mission to secure the outright defeat of ISIS is impossible. The 900 troops in the northeast of Syria and the US garrison at al-Tanf cannot stop a low level of recruitment into ISIS ranks. “So we can bomb some and we can kill some, but they'll always replace the people that they lose,” he told me. “This is a classic forever war.”

Anyway, it is difficult to understand why US units in Syria and their Kurdish allies should get into the focus of recruiters in need of loyal mercenaries for a deployment in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Instead, the whole story seems to be fabricated by the Russian side which follows different policies in the Syrian conflict and would welcome everything useful to weaken the US position there.

And there is another reason for the US to stay in Syria: It's the oil and gas fields that have to be 'secured' by US and allied military. Of course, US legitimacy for that can be questioned, but it's just another reason for the US to stay, as an earlier Chinese article indicated on June 16:

2022年12月，叙利亚外交部致信联合国秘书长和联合国安理会主席指出，美国非法驻军及其支持的反对派武装，不断盗运叙利亚石油等资源、并破坏叙利亚基础设施，已给叙利亚造成259亿美元的直接经济损失，以及860亿美元的间接经济损失。

“我们留下军队就是为了石油”

多位分析人士指出，美军不请自来、又赖着不走，他们就是为了这里的石油。但这些石油所带来的收入原本是为了改善叙利亚民生，叙利亚石油从来就不属于美国。

In December 2022, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the Chairman of the UN Security Council, pointing out that the illegal presence of U.S. troops and the opposition forces supported by the United States have continued to smuggle Syrian oil and other resources and destroy Syrian infrastructure, which has caused 25.9 billion US Dollars damage to Syria in direct economic losses and of 86 billion US Dollars in indirect economic losses.

"We keep the military for the oil"

Many analysts pointed out that the U.S. military came here uninvited and refused to leave, and they did so for the oil here. However, the income from that oil was originally intended to improve the livelihood of the Syrian people, and Syrian oil has never belonged to the United States.

Extended oil and gas fields, as well as wheat in the northeastern provinces of Syria

Sandworm - Hacker Unit of Russia's Military Intelligence

On June 27, the Austrian paper 'Der Standard' published an article about Jewgeni Serebrjakow, prominent member of Russia's hacker group 'Sandworm'. Here some excerpts from the German language publication in the English and Chinese version:

In April 2018, Yevgeny Serebryakov and three other Russian agents are standing in a parking lot in The Hague, the Netherlands, with a lot of hacking equipment in his rental car. The men have a plan: they want to hack into the Wi-Fi in the nearby building of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). At that time, the OPCW was investigating whether the Assad regime, which was allied with Russia, had used poison gas against civilians.

But before the hackers can get started, they are surrounded by Dutch agents who had been shadowing Serebryakov and his colleagues. The Dutch confiscate the equipment – cash, mobile phones, laptops – and expel the men from the country. A few months later, the Dutch company held a press conference – and presented photos of the passports used, the rental car and a bag in which the hackers collected their garbage so as not to leave fingerprints in the hotel. It is, there is hardly any other way to put it, a public demonstration of the GRU secret service. [GRU = Russia's military intelligence service]

Diplomatic passport used by Jewgeni Serebrjakow

2018年4月，叶夫根尼·谢列布里亚科夫和另外三名俄罗斯特工站在荷兰海牙的一个停车场，租来的车里有很多黑客设备。这些人有一个计划：他们想入侵禁止化学武器组织（禁化武组织）附近大楼的Wi-Fi。当时，禁化武组织正在调查与俄罗斯结盟的阿萨德政权是否对平民使用毒气。

但在黑客开始之前，他们被一直跟踪谢列布里亚科夫及其同事的荷兰特工包围。荷兰没收了设备——现金、手机、笔记本电脑——并将这些人驱逐出境。几个月后，这家荷兰公司举行了新闻发布会，并展示了所用护照、租车和黑客收集垃圾的袋子的照片，以免在酒店留下指纹。几乎没有任何其他方式可以说，这是 GRU 特勤局的公开展示。

However, the same Yevgeny Serebryakov now leads one of the most dangerous hacking groups in the world: Sandworms. That's a staggering increase, as sandworm forces play a central role in Russian military intelligence: Ukrainian hackers shut down the grid twice, albeit only for a brief time in 2015 and 2016. Sandworms also play an important role in Russia's war of aggression. In March, the US trade magazine Wired reported on the promotion, and soon after a document appeared on the Internet that was of particular interest to Western intelligence services: a certain Yevgeny Serebryakov's master's thesis on the title: "Information Confrontation in World Politics." In more than 90 pages and 77 footnotes, it explains the meaning behind the clumsy term "information confrontation": it is generally believed not only in Russia that information can be used as a weapon.

然而，同样的叶夫根尼·谢列布里亚科夫现在领导着世界上最危险的黑客组织之一：沙虫。这是一个惊人的增长，因为沙虫部队在俄罗斯军事情报部门发挥着核心作用：乌克兰的黑客两次关闭电网，尽管只是在 2015 年和 2016 年的短暂时间。沙虫在俄罗斯侵略战争中也发挥着重要作用。 3月，美国贸易杂志《连线》报道了这次推广，不久后，一份文件登陆了互联网，西方情报部门对此特别感兴趣：某叶夫根尼·谢列布里亚科夫的硕士论文，题目："世界政治中的信息对抗"。在 90 多页和 77 个脚注中，它解释了笨拙的术语"信息对抗"背后的含义：不仅在俄罗斯普遍认为信息可以用作武器。

In 2020, some Chinese language publication already mentioned the Sandworm group as being targeted by US authorities:

美联社和CNN等多家美媒报道，当地时间10月19日，美国宾夕法尼亚州西部地区地方法院对6名俄罗斯黑客发出了逮捕令，被通缉的6名黑客属于Sandworm（沙虫）黑客组织，在俄罗斯情报机构的支持下，对美国公司、乌克兰能源系统、2018年韩国冬季奥运会的组织者等进行了网络攻击，导致数千台计算机瘫痪，损失约10亿美元，美国方面相信这6名俄罗斯黑客就是NotPetya勒索软件的幕后黑手。

Associated Press, CNN and other US media reported that on October 19, local time, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania issued arrest warrants for six Russian hackers. The six wanted hackers belonged to the Sandworm hacker organization which is backed by Russian intelligence agencies. [They had allegedly] carried out cyberattacks on U.S. companies, Ukrainian energy systems, organizers of the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, etc., paralyzing thousands of computers and costing about $1 billion. The U.S. believes the six Russian hackers are behind the NotPetya ransomware.

Leaked IT contractor files detail Kremlin's stockpile of cyber-weapons: The NTC Vulcan Files.
How the 'Washington Post' got their hands on the Vulcan files, leaked from Russia's IT giant.

Russia's Private Armies - Acting in a Legal Vacuum

然而，尽管是最高调的存在，“瓦格纳”却不是唯一在乌克兰为俄罗斯作战的私人军事公司，它的崛起也并非“独一无二的现象”。事实上，俄乌冲突导致俄罗斯其他私人军事公司急速扩张，以及众多雇佣兵团的诞生。据统计，俄罗斯已有超过30个雇佣兵团。

此前不少分析称，这些大多由俄罗斯富豪、权贵资助的兵团实质就是私人军队，其背后引发的“权力游戏”注定将在俄罗斯产生“破坏性影响”。俄媒也在24日的报道中称，“瓦格纳”从“心腹变为心腹大患”的根源，是这些私人军事公司游走在俄罗斯法律的真空地带，再加之金钱、权力等一系列纠葛。

Wagner is not the only private military company fighting for Russia in Ukraine, nor is its rise a "unique phenomenon". In fact, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the rapid expansion of other Russian private military companies and the birth of numerous mercenary regiments. According to statistics, Russia has more than 30 mercenary regiments.

Many previous analysts said that these corps, which are mostly funded by Russia's rich and powerful, are essentially private armies, and the "power game" behind them is destined to have a "destructive impact" in Russia. In a report on the 24th, Russian media also said that the root cause of "Wagner" from "henchman to henchman" is that these private military companies wander in the vacuum of Russian law, coupled with a series of entanglements such as money and power. ...........

美国战争研究所在去年10月的一份评估报告指出，普里戈任在“俄罗斯国家结构和信息空间中占据着独特的优势地位”，这使得他比俄军高级指挥官更容易在俄罗斯“扩大自己的选区”。不仅如此，普里戈任还可以自由地“提升”自己和他的部队，同时还能“批评俄政府官员或俄武装部队，而不必担心遭到反击”。

随着“瓦格纳”快速成长为一支俄罗斯政府军主力的结盟部队，其在俄乌冲突中扮演的角色也越来越重要，最好的例证可能就是今年初的一次法律改革。今年3月，一项禁止“诋毁或审查俄武装部队”的法律范围扩大到了包括“雇佣军和志愿军”。

An assessment report by the U.S. War Research Institute in October last year pointed out that Prigozhin occupies a "uniquely advantageous position in the Russian state structure and information space", which makes him more likely than a senior Russian military commander to conduct military operations in Russia and "expand his legal frame". Not only that, but Prigozhin is also free to "promote" himself and his troops, and at the same time "criticize Russian government officials or the Russian armed forces without fear of retaliation."

As Wagner has rapidly grown into a mainstay of the Russian government's allied force, its role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has grown, perhaps best exemplified by a legal overhaul earlier this year. In March, a law prohibiting "defamation or censorship of the Russian armed forces" was expanded to include "mercenaries and volunteers". ..........

GAZPROM - Military Branch

俄最大能源巨头至少手握4支队伍。

去年11月被任命为乌克兰俄控区监狱管理员后，乌克兰亲俄商人阿尔缅·萨尔基斯扬便计划利用自己的职位，并借鉴“瓦格纳”集团的招募模式，成立一个私人军事公司。乌克兰方面声称，这家公司由俄罗斯富豪萨姆韦尔·卡拉佩提安资助。卡拉佩提安是塔希尔控股公司老板，该公司是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的分包商。

最为关键的是，俄最大能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（简称“俄气”）也组建了多个雇佣兵团。据报道，至少有三家与俄气公司有关联的私人军事公司一直在乌克兰境内与俄罗斯军队并肩作战，它们分别被称为“火炬”“洪流”和“堡垒”。

其中，“堡垒”是唯一一家规模和经验都与“瓦格纳”接近的。据悉，该组织已存在数年，此前为叙利亚的基础设施项目提供安全保障，最初规模很小，但在俄乌冲突爆发后一直在积极“招兵买马”。

Russia's largest energy giant holds at least 4 teams.

After being appointed as the administrator of the prison in the Russian-controlled area of Ukraine in November last year, Ukrainian pro-Russian businessman Armen Sarkisyan planned to use his position and learn from the recruitment model of the 'Wagner' group to set up a private military company. Ukraine claims the company was funded by Russian billionaire Samwell Karapetian. Karapetian is the owner of Tahir Holding, a subcontractor for Gazprom.

The most critical thing is that Russia's largest energy giant Gazprom has also formed a number of mercenary groups. At least three private military companies linked to Gazprom, known as 'Torch', 'Torrent' and 'Fortress', have been fighting alongside Russian forces inside Ukraine, according to reports.

Among them, 'Fortress' is the only company whose scale and experience are close to 'Wagner'. It is reported that the organization has existed for several years. It previously provided security for infrastructure projects in Syria. It was originally small in scale, but it has been actively "recruiting troops" after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

A similar article, dealing with the same subject, was published
the same day by some other regional news center (above).

.........................


It's about sabotage of the North Stream pipelines that should have provided Germany
with natural gas delivered by Russia's GAZPROM. After the beginning of Russia's full-
fledged attack on Ukraine, Germany froze the project and enforced the construction of
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals to ensure energy supply independent from Russia.

Russia's Prigozhin - A Warlord siding with the Emperor -Ukrainian soldiers operating behind the Russian lines

- Continuously Updated on June 24 -

Today, there are two Chinese media reports of importance, the first dealing with Prigozhin, leader of Russia's influential Wagner militia:

The conflict between the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group and the Russian army was ultimately irreconcilable. On June 23, Wagner leader Prigorzhin publicly accused Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov, saying that the two were trying to "strangle Wagner" and ordered the Russian army to attack the camp of Wagner's troops. So he wanted to "severely punish" the two of them. Subsequently, Prigorzhin, in the name of "the side of the Qing emperor"(*), wants to march into Moscow to "seek justice", and had already led troops into Rostov in southern Russia.

(*) = Chinese proverb used to depict a warlord who is allegedly still in support
of the emperor's cause while resisting the claims of the emperor's army.

Although many Russian generals came forward to appease the Wagner Group and tried to prevent Prigozhin’s actions, judging from the current situation, Prigozhin’s control over this mercenary armed force is very strong, and it is not the Russian army that can shake it off. Prigozhin also claimed that Wagner troops shot down a Russian helicopter during the expedition, implying that the "merger" had begun. In this regard, the Rostov region has issued a warning, requiring residents to stay at home, saying that law enforcement agencies would ensure the safety of locals.

The Chinese source comes to the following conclusion:
Prigozhin is being seen as a warlord who tries to bargain a deal with the Russian military in order to remain unchallenged in his position as "chief of the emperor's private army". It is worth to have a closer look, as well, on the very special relationship between Putin and Prigozhin, both sharing a similar past in St. Petersburg from where Putin rose to the commanding heights of state and Prigozhin founded a chain of exclusive gourmet restaurants, so that he became known in the public as "Putin's cook".

不过，俄罗斯已经定性普里戈任的行动是“武装叛乱”，发起了刑事立案。莫斯科所有重要机关、交通枢纽都出现了全副武装的士兵进行守卫，装甲车也现身街头，整体气氛非常紧张。
However, Russia has characterized Prigozhin's actions as an "armed rebellion" and initiated a criminal case. All important institutions and transportation hubs in Moscow were guarded by heavily armed soldiers, and armored vehicles also appeared on the streets. The overall atmosphere was described as very tense.



Armoured cars and armed soldiers in the streets of Mosccow to protect official buildings after
the conflict between Prigozhin's Wagner militia and Russia's army finally escalated last night.
- TVBS News, Taiwan -



Putin's speech targeting the Wagner Mutiny

..... 从现在的情况看，俄罗斯内部并不是钢板一块，各个武装存在很大分歧，若普里戈任的问题不迅速解决，乌克兰和北约趁机发难，俄罗斯真的会陷入“内忧外患”的局面。

..... Judging from the current situation, Russia is not a single piece of steel, and there are great differences among the various armed forces. If the Prigozhin issue is not resolved quickly and Ukraine and NATO take the opportunity to attack, Russia will really fall into a situation of "internal and external troubles".

Prigozin turned his back and directed his troops from Rostov-on-Don to the city of Voronezh,
pointing his sword at Moscow. Russian security sources are saying Wagner's army had taken
control of all military installations in the city of Voronezh, about 500 km south of Moscow.

据《莫斯科时报》24日报道，这是俄军在俄南部高速公路M4上袭击“瓦格纳”车队的视频截图

According to the "Moscow Times" and reported on the 24th, this is a video screenshot of
the Russian army's attack on the "Wagner" convoy on the southern Russian M4 highway.

After talks with Belarus president Lukashenko, Prigozhin agrees to stop his troops' advance
on Moscow to avoid bloodshed. Instead, he vows to send his troops back to their bases, after
having already been pretty close to Moscow. [Breaking News on Al-Jazeera at 07:00 PM CET]

Whatever Prigozhin accepted when he finally caved in, he lost that round in the fight for power.
More important, however, is the damage he inflicted on Vladimir Putin who just lost his nimbus
as the uncontested leader of Russia. [Common opinion of several foreign media on June 24]

Last news of the day .....

Russian law enforcement officers found 4 billion rubles (about 343 million yuan)
in a car near Prigozhin's St. Petersburg office. Prigozhin confirmed this was kind
of "daily expenses" for the Wagner group.

...............

Recent proceedings of Ukrainian units according to Prigozhin. The situation
should be very serious for Russia and even locals were allegedly shocked.

Artificial Intelligence - Who will Lose their Jobs ?

On May 24, 2023, some Chinese publication dealt with the consequences large-scale implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) would have on different groups of employees. However things are more complicated and far-reaching to be discussed in the frame of a single blogspot. So let me just quote some basic ideas extracted from that publication.

Within Ten Years, Two Types of People Won't be Replaced

自2月份ChatGPT发布以来，几乎每天一个重磅炸单，一会儿接入微软全家桶，一会儿对接第三方应用插件，最新的重磅是解除封印可以联网。

Since the release of ChatGPT in February, there has been a blockbuster order almost every day, connecting to the Microsoft family bucket for a while, and connecting to third-party application plug-ins for a while. The latest blockbuster is to unseal and connect to the Internet.

ChatGPT的功能很多，包括程序语言转换、故事创作、代码、头脑风暴、RE文本情绪分析、广告设计等49个。概括起来有7大应用场景：应用和布局、搜索和数据分析、程序生成和分析、文本生成、内容创作、一般推理和其他。

ChatGPT has many functions, including 49 functions in the fields of program language conversion, story creation, code, brainstorming, RE text sentiment analysis, and advertisement design. In summary, there are 7 major application scenarios: application and layout, search and data analysis, program generation and analysis, text generation, content creation, general reasoning and others.

In order to survive in the times of AI, it becomes essential to master three digital capabilities: knowledge, creation, operation on the job.
First, the ability to acquire all kinds of knowledge you never imagined before you might need.
Second, the ability to create works, including text, images, audio codes, and more.
Third, empower operational capabilities. AI can generate various processes, designs, business plans, and marketing collaboration processes. That demands you to use AI in order to make business proceedings running more smoothly in your daily routine.

任正非说，未来只有两种人，一种是熟练使用AI工具的人，另一种是可以生产AI工具的人。

Ren Zhengfei [the founder of HUAWEI] said that there will be only two types of people in the future, one is those who are proficient in using AI tools, and the other is those who can produce AI tools.

After the emergence of AI, many human positions, departments, and industries have been eliminated at once. But compared to AI, humans still have some comparative advantages in skills showing up in three fundamental abilities. From there, three categories of working positions can be described as follows :
The first category is dexterity work which requires manual precision work together with expert knowledge. Precision surgery or arts and crafts could serve as an example.
The second category is creative work. Such work cannot be fully standardized.
The third category is work that requires empathy. You might say that current machines also have empathy, such as intelligent care robots for the elderly, comfort robots, robot girlfriends, and so on. But at present, the gap between robot 'ethics' and human empathy is still very large.

这三类岗位目前是比较安枕无忧的。如果不属于这三类，只要掌握前面说的三种数字能力，或者迅速成为两种专业人士中的一种，依然可以与时俱进。

These three types of [working] positions are currently relatively safe and secure. If you do not belong to these three categories, as long as you master the three digital capabilities mentioned above, or quickly become one of the two types of professionals [mentioned by Ren Zhengfei], you can still keep pace with the times.

Defender 23 - Japan joining NATO ? - Chinese view

The question why Japan joined NATO forces in the frame of their Defender 23 drills is driving China. However, opinion from China, as it appears in the quoted article below, should be seen in the frame of Japan recently overhauling its defence strategy in the presence of an increasing danger posed by China. Here is another blogspot of mine dealing with the same subject.

再回到日本，虽然日本一直是美国的头号“走狗”，但这全是北约国家和准北约国家的联合军演，日本也要来参加，有什么目的？

从日本角度来看，参加这次军演，一方面能提高和美制军备的磨合度，一方面也能熟悉美国和 北约的作战手法，为以后做准备。其次，对日本来说，这次的军演是一个加强自身军事力量，跳出军事实力限制的圈子。对好战的日本来说，被限制发展核武器、限制军队人数、限制军舰规格简直不能忍。之前美国为了照顾东亚各国的情绪严格限制日本军事发展，现在日本在美国的战略中拥有越来越重要的地位，默许日本扩张军事实力也是美日心照不宣的事。之前的限制阻碍了日本军国主义的复苏，现在链子松了，我们也该警惕日本军国主义的反扑。

对美国来说，让日本参加这次的北约军演，可以更好的把日本绑在它反华反俄的战车上。其次就是虽然之前说了要让北约在日本建立办事处，但是被法国反对了。现在美国直接把日本拉过来联合军演，法国也不好反对。美国也能进一步加强对亚太局势的掌控。

Going back to Japan, although Japan has always been the number one "running dog" of the United States, these are all joint military exercises of NATO countries and quasi-NATO countries. Japan also wants to participate. What is the purpose?

From Japan's point of view, participating in this military exercise can improve the degree of integration with the US-made armaments on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can also familiarize itself with the combat methods of the United States and NATO to prepare for the future. Secondly, for Japan, this military exercise is a way to strengthen its own military power and jump out of the circle of military power limitations. Rules of restriction and limitation for the belligerent Japan, concerning the development of nuclear weapons, the number of troops, and the size of warships are simply unbearable. In the past, the United States strictly limited Japan's military development in order to take care of the emotions of East Asian countries. Now Japan has an increasingly important position in the United States' strategy. The previous restrictions hindered the recovery of Japanese militarism. Now that the chain is loose, we should also be vigilant against the counterattack of Japanese militarism.

For the United States, allowing Japan to participate in this NATO military exercise can better tie Japan to its anti-China and anti-Russia chariot. The second is that although it was said before that NATO would establish an office in Japan, this was opposed by France. Now the United States directly pulls Japan over for joint military exercises, and for France it's not easy to object. The United States can also further strengthen its control over the Asia-Pacific situation.

Editor's Note: It must be added that Japan takes part in the Defender 23 drills only as an observer, same as Sweden which does not yet enjoy full Nato membership. Some Nato circles, however, are favoring the foundation of a Nato office in Japan in order to coordinate common military projects and relations that are already existing. In fact, Japan has more cooperation with European and American allies than may immediately be visible. "No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan," Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in January on a visit to Tokyo.

Defender 23 - Nato Drills in Germany - US Voices

While the proceedings of Defender 23 Nato drills are rather smoothly going on, here are US voices from Germany where Nato operations should simulate a situation of war in an allied country. The imagined situation: Germany being already partly invaded by an unnamed enemy is trying to defend an East German port from being taken over by that enemy.

I decided to quote an article from ABC News (June 7) where US Ambassador to Germany, Amy Gutman, and the director of the U.S. Air National Guard, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, are putting things more bluntly than German sources usually would do. Here is what they are saying, together with a raw translation of their words into Chinese:

First a diplomatic view:

“This is an exercise that would be absolutely impressive to anybody who’s watching, and we don’t make anybody watch it,” U.S. Ambassador to Germany Amy Gutmann said.

“It will demonstrate beyond a shadow of a doubt the agility and the swiftness of our allied force in NATO as a first responder,” she told reporters in Berlin.

“I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance," Gutmann said.

"And that includes Mr. Putin,” she added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"对于任何正在观看的人来说，这是一项绝对令人印象深刻的演习，我们不会让任何人观看它，"美国驻德国大使艾米古特曼说（Amy Gutmann）。
...............
"毫无疑问，这将展示我们在北约盟军作为第一反应者的敏捷性和迅速性，"她在柏林告诉记者。
..............
"如果任何世界领导人没有注意到这个联盟的精神所显示的内容，这意味着这个联盟的力量，我会感到非常惊讶，"古特曼说。
.............
"这包括普京先生，"她补充说，指的是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京。

And here is opinion from the US military:

The director of the U.S. Air National Guard, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, said the exercise goes beyond deterrence.

“It's about the readiness of our force. It’s about coordination, not just within NATO, but with our other allies and partners outside of NATO,” he said.

Loh said the exercise would be an opportunity for younger U.S. airmen, many of whom have mainly gotten experience serving in the Middle East, to build relationships with allies in Europe and prepare for a different military scenario.

“So this is about now establishing what it means to go against a great power, in a great power competition,” he said.

美国空军国民警卫队主任迈克尔·A·罗（Michael A. Loh）中将表示，这次演习超越了威慑。
...............
"这是关于我们部队的准备情况。这是关于协调，不仅在北约内部，而且与北约以外的其他盟国和伙伴，"他说。
...............
卢说，这次演习将为年轻的美国飞行员提供一个机会，其中许多人主要在中东服役，与欧洲盟国建立关系并为不同的军事场景做准备。
...............
"所以这是关于现在确定在大国竞争中对抗大国意味着什么，"他说。




June 14: German National Radio DW on the presentation of Germany's first
National Security Concept by Chancellor Scholz and four of his ministers.
德国第一件国家安全提纲（德国国家广播电台DW）