US and China - A Strategic Competition

美专家：美国正在输掉与中国的战略竞争

US experts: America is losing in strategic competition with China.

华盛顿 — 美国国会众议院军事委员会星期四就美国与中国的战略竞争举行了听证会。 美国的中国问题专家在听证会上表示，美国过去25年的对华策略失败了， 美国正在输掉与中国的战略竞争。不过他们认为，美国仍然能够阻遏中国的势头， 防止中国主导的非自由秩序在亚洲以及世界其他地方发展壮大。

On Thursday, the military committee for the House of Representatives within US Congress held an informative meeting regarding US-Chinese strategic competitiveness. On that meeting US experts of the Chinese subject demonstrated that America has lost against Chinese tactics during the last 25 years and is losing against China's strategic competition. They are considering that America is still able to counter China's impetus and prevent China's non-liberal style domination of the expanding development in Asia and other places in the world.

[Source: Voice of America VOA, Chinese Service on February 16, 2018]




哈里斯：中国军事高速发展对美国形成挑战

Harris: China's military is developing at high speed
and is forming a challenge for the US.

This is referring to Admiral Harris, up to now commander of the US Pacific Command 美军太平洋司令部司令哈里斯海军上将

值得注意的是，哈里斯上将刚刚被川普政府提名为驻澳大利亚大使的哈里斯， 而中国一直将哈里斯认为是鹰派将领，对特朗普提名他出任澳大利亚大师非常不高兴， 官媒新华社的文章直言说：“哈里斯担任太平洋司令部司令期间， 他的种种言行让太平洋很'不太平'”。

What deserves to be noticed is: Admiral Harris has just been nominated by the Trump administration as an ambassador to Australia. Admiral Harris, however, is being considered by China as a military leader belonging to the 'falcon faction' and whose mission as an ambassador to Australia by appoinment of Trump is not making China happy. An article from the official agency Xin Hua stated outright: " At the time when Harris held the post of a commander of the Pacific Command, his statements and actions made the Pacific Ocean rather 'less pacific' ".

[Source: Radio France International RTI, Chinese Service on February 15, 2018]

Russian Mercenaries in Syria

Today, different US media reported on Russian mercenaries being killed in US air strikes in Syria while fighting side by side with Syrian government-backed troops. Official Russian sources are downplaying such reports. A private Russian military agency named Wagner is allegedly behind the recruiting and deployment of Russian ex-soldiers. Sources are indicating that a former Russian special-forces officer, Dmitry Utkin, is acting on behalf of Wagner, his group numbering as many as 2,500 men. That group is believed to have figured heavily in operations around Palmyra in 2016, serving as “shock troops” alongside the Syrian army, says Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security at the Institute of International Relations in Prague. Though the Russian army has not acknowledged Wagner’s existence, Mr Utkin was photographed late last year alongside President Vladimir Putin at a Kremlin reception for military officers in honour of Day of Heroes of the Fatherland.

[Sources: BBC, today two hours ago, and The Economist on November 2nd, 2017]




外媒称数十万俄罗斯雇佣兵遍布全球：广泛参与叙战事

Foreign media are saying that 100.000 Russian mercenaries are
spread all over the world: Broad participation in the Syrian War.

[Source: SINA / XinHua 新华社 on January 31, 2018]




خبير روسي يوضح مصير الاتفاقات المبرمة بين موسكو و واشنطن بشأن سوريا

Russian expert explicates the fate of agreements
between Moscow and Washington related to Syria.

The article is referring to Vitaly Naumkin, director of the Institute of Orientalistic in the Russian Aceademy of Science and the United Nations special envoy for Syria. Vitaly Naumkin is considering all US-Russian agreements on Syria as being intact. "Citizens with Russian passports within the Syrian Army" should therefore not be overestimated, especially because these people are definitely breaking Russian law when joining the Syrian army as well-paid mercenaries.

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Visitor from Singapore interested in Islamic State propaganda.

Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang

Rare encounter in times of conflict !

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The possibility of a U.S. military strike against North Korea has dominated the news in the United States and South Korea and for a good reason. The Trump administration now appears to be downplaying the idea that it is considering a military strike to prevent Pyongyang from crossing the ICBM threshold. But it’s hard to ignore the consistent signals that senior officials had been sending over the past several months.

National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster and others have been talking about a “preventive war,” saying we are “running out of time” to solve the North Korea problem, and that North Korea has brought the world “closer to war.” President Trump, for his part, has warned that the U.S. military is “locked and loaded” and threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea.

Recently the administration withdrew Victor Cha’s nomination to be ambassador to South Korea, reportedly because of his objection to a “bloody nose” strike. Despite appearances at the Olympics, we are now closer to a war on the Korean Peninsula than at any time since 1994, when the Clinton administration considered a military strike to destroy North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex.

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Excerpt from an article published by authors near to the The Brookings Institution in the US daily USA Today on February 9, 2018. The Brookings Institution is a think tank located in Washington DC and which is usually considered as a rather conservative and liberal organization.

North Korea Cheating on China ?

Important Update added on February 7 !



朝鲜造假文件向中国运输煤炭获利？ 中方回应

Is North Korea making Profit from Faked Documents
on Coal Transport to China ? China's Response.

问：据悉，联合国负责朝鲜制裁问题的独立调查员在一份报告中称， 朝鲜去年通过出口违禁商品获得2亿美元收入，其中包括通过造假文件向中国运输煤炭， 向叙利亚和缅甸出口武器等。中方是否看到了这份报告？对该报告的有关内容有何评论？

Question: It is said that an independent investigator for the United Nations and who is in charge of the subject of North Korea sanctions, stated in a report: Last year, North Korea gained a 200 million US$ income from undergoing export of sanctioned merchandise, thereby including the falsification of documents for the transport of coal to China and the export of weapons to Syria and Myanmar. Has China seen that report ? What is China's comment on its content ?

答：据我了解，你提到的报告正在联合国安理会有关制裁委员会的内部审议进程当中。 目前，我不便对媒体就报告作出具体评论。

Answer: As to my understanding, you refer to the report that is just being internally discussed by the United Nations Security Council's committee concerned with the sanctions. At the moment I consider it inappropriate to make any specific comment on that report to the media.

这里我想指出，第一，中方始终主张联合国安理会通过的有关决议应该得到全面、 严格执行。第二、中方作为安理会常任理事国，一直带头全面、严格执行安理会有关涉朝决议， 履行我们应尽的国际义务。

Here I want to point out: Firstly, China all along endorses that the United Nations Security Council's related resolutions should be fully and rigorously implemented. Secondly, China as a permanent member of the Security Council is always among the first to fully and rigorously implement the Security Council's resolutions involving North Korea.

[Source SINA on the regular press conference of China's Foreign Ministry held on February 5, 2018]

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中朝边境气氛诡异 中方突增兵30万加导弹部队

Eerie and strange atmosphere at the North Korean border.
China suddenly rushes in another 300.000 troops,
including missile units.

[Source: NTDTV 新唐人 on February 5, 2018]

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Russian visitor from the border region to China and North Korea.

North Korea - Enforcement of Sanctions

Update added !



Another Taiwanese businessman has been questioned on suspicion of transporting oil to a North Korean buyer in the open seas, Taiwan prosecutors said on Friday.

Chuang Chin-hung, 56, was questioned over the alleged sale of 7,000 tonnes of diesel oil to North Korea in December, prosecutors said. He was released on NT$2 million (US$68,400) bail and will face further questioning.

Ship-to-ship transfers of oil violate UN sanctions imposed on Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons programme.

“We have found that Chuang is the owner of a Marshall Island-registered trading company … and used the Jin Hye oil tanker, which he owns, to sell oil in international waters,” a spokesman for the Kaohsiung prosecutors office said on Friday.

Russia warns totally cutting oil supplies to North Korea would be seen by Pyongyang as act of war. [South China Morning Post] North Korean diplomats en route to Moscow for talks over mutual cooperation, the Russian Embassy in North Korea said. [Reuters]

The spokesman said the tanker was found to have loaded oil from Taiwan in November and transported the oil to a North Korean vessel in the East China Sea in December. But in the port and customs documents, Chuang allegedly wrote that the tanker was transporting the oil to Hong Kong.

Chuang, however, said he was unaware that the buyer was North Korea, but was unable to explain the false information in the documents, the spokesman said.

Chuang is the second Taiwanese national suspected of selling oil to North Korea. Last month, prosecutors placed Kaohsiung-based businessman Chen Shih-hsien and his overseas companies on a sanction list for allegedly selling oil to North Korean vessels in international waters.

The Kaohsiung prosecutors office alleged that Chen, who owns two fishing companies in Kaohsiung, was the dealer behind the transfer of oil to North Korea through the Hong Kong-registered Lighthouse Winmore in the Yellow Sea.

The tanker was seized by South Korean officials after it allegedly transferred about 600 tonnes of oil to a North Korean vessel in October.

[Source: South China Morning Post in Hong Kong and Reuters on February 2nd, 2018]

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约旦宣布与朝鲜断交

Jordan declares to cut off diplomatic relations with North Korea.

根据该声明，约旦王室已批准政府这一决定。约旦将不再承认朝鲜驻约旦大使， 约旦也将停止其驻朝鲜大使的工作。

Based on that statement, the Royal Court of Jordan already approved the government's decision. Jordan will no longer recognize North Korea's abassador in its country. It will stop as well the activity of its own ambassador to North Korea.

美国政府去年向一些国家施加压力，敦促它们与朝鲜切断外交和经济联系以孤立朝鲜。

Last year, the U.S. government put pressure on some countries urging them to cut off their diplomatic and economic relations with North Korea in order to isolate that country.

Jordan is therefore joining the regional pro-American alliance in the Middle East as presented by countries like Kuwait that is now hailing the Jordanian decision.

[Source: XinHua 新华 on February 2nd, 2018]

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Newsweek article dating from January 31, 2018.

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美国计划对朝“流鼻血打击” 韩国忧心

The US are planning a "Bloody Nose Strike" on North Korea
South Korea is worried.

[Source: RFA Radio Free Asia 自由亚洲电台普通话, Chinese language site from Washington DC on February 2nd, 2018]

North Korea's Days are Numbered

Just In !

On late January 30, U.S. president Donald Trump in his State of the Union speech made it clear that North Korea's days are numbered.




Ji Seong-ho, North Korean defector and survivor of North Korean torture,
holds up his crutches as symbol of defiance to the North Korean regime
after president Trump details his harrowing journey to freedom.

Comment by Fox News:
History proves time and time again that the yearning for freedom will crush the jackboots of the vilest dictators. Kim Jong Un won’t get much sleep after President Trump’s speech, as he knows time is not on his side. And it took the power of just one man with his old crutches to prove it.





路透：制裁之下，朝鲜通过俄罗斯出口煤炭

Reuters: Under Sanctions ... North Korea is Exporting Coal to Russia.

朝鲜经济特区罗先等待装船的煤炭

In North Korea's special economic zone of Rason, coal is waiting for being shipped.

[Source: VOA Voice of America Chinese language service on January 27, 2018]

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Turkey attacks Kurds in Syria

Today, Turkish forces have started shelling the Kurdish stronghold in Syria in the Afrin region. Latest reports confirm artillery shelling and air raids targeting Afrin. According to BBC, the Syrian regime of Bashir Assad is threatening to shoot down Turkish war planes.



قصف مدفعي تركي مستمر على عفرين

Permanent Turkish Artillery Shelling of Afrin

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خبر عاجل :القوات التركية تطلق على عمليتها العسكرية في عفرين اسم "غصن الزيتون"ـ

Breaking News: Turkish forces started their military
operation named "cutting the olive trees" in Afrin.

عملية عفرين ... المهمة و النطاق و الإشكالات السياسية

Operation Afrin ... Mission, Region, and Political Problems.

[Al-Jazeera الجزيرة on January 20, 2018]

China's Fears for 2018

At the beginning of each new year we are inclined to look back at the past year, and we try to predict what trends in political and economic development might become decisive for the year to come.

That's just what the Chinese are doing as well. However, Chinese people are said to be more superstitious than we are in the West. That might be the reason why some Chinese article, published today, is relating the possible dangers to a sound development of China's economy to the influence of nine ominous black swans. The dangers, however, might nevertheless be seen as real.


2018年九大黑天鹅：小心，魔鬼在你背后

In 2018 there will be Nine big Black Swans:
Be careful - The devil might be behind your back !

黑天鹅一号：朝鲜半岛剧变

The 1st black swan: Dramatic changes on the Korean peninsula. [This chapter is referring to the acceleration of political tensions, as observed in 2017.]

黑天鹅二号：石油价格重上100美元

The 2nd black swan: A rise of mineral oil prices above 100 US$ [per barrel].

黑天鹅三号：欧洲复苏失败

The 3rd black swan: Europe's recovering from failure.

黑天鹅四号：美股长牛终结

The 4th black swan: The soaring of US shares might end.

黑天鹅五号：中国通胀再起

The 5th black swan: China undergoing [unstable] expansion.

黑天鹅六号：比特币崩盘

The 6th black swan: A collapse of Bitcoin market quotations.

黑天鹅七号：特朗普风险

The 7th black swan: The Trump Hazard. [What the Chinese call the "Trump Hazard" can be related to the US president's credo of "America first". The Chinese article casually mentions the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS), which prioritizes U.S. leadership in military, commercial, and scientific components of space， and which is no exception to the Trump administration’s continued desire to “make America great again in space.” As space evolves into a more globally competitive industry, the economic vitality of the U.S. space sector will support key national security goals to “promote American prosperity” and “advance American influence.” This finally shows how the 2017 NSS can be understood.]

黑天鹅八号：中国房地产崩盘

The 8th black swan: A collapse of real estate quotations.

黑天鹅九号：美联储加息超预期

The 9th black swan: Expectations regarding the US [Federal Reserve's] augmentation of interest.

[Kaixian tv 汉丰网, quoting the Shenzhen journal New Fortune 新财富 on January 3, 2018]

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Visitor from Rome, Italy, and who is interested in Chinese policy.