At the beginning of each new year we are inclined to look back at the past year, and we try to predict what trends in political and economic development might become decisive for the year to come.
That's just what the Chinese are doing as well. However, Chinese people are said to be more superstitious than we are in the West. That might be the reason why some Chinese article, published today, is relating the possible dangers to a sound development of China's economy to the influence of nine ominous black swans. The dangers, however, might nevertheless be seen as real.
In 2018 there will be Nine big Black Swans:
Be careful - The devil might be behind your back !
黑天鹅一号：朝鲜半岛剧变
The 1st black swan: Dramatic changes on the Korean peninsula. [This chapter is referring to the acceleration of political tensions, as observed in 2017.]
黑天鹅二号：石油价格重上100美元
The 2nd black swan: A rise of mineral oil prices above 100 US$ [per barrel].
黑天鹅三号：欧洲复苏失败
The 3rd black swan: Europe's recovering from failure.
黑天鹅四号：美股长牛终结
The 4th black swan: The soaring of US shares might end.
黑天鹅五号：中国通胀再起
The 5th black swan: China undergoing [unstable] expansion.
黑天鹅六号：比特币崩盘
The 6th black swan: A collapse of Bitcoin market quotations.
黑天鹅七号：特朗普风险
The 7th black swan: The Trump Hazard. [What the Chinese call the "Trump Hazard" can be related to the US president's credo of "America first". The Chinese article casually mentions the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS), which prioritizes U.S. leadership in military, commercial, and scientific components of space， and which is no exception to the Trump administration’s continued desire to “make America great again in space.” As space evolves into a more globally competitive industry, the economic vitality of the U.S. space sector will support key national security goals to “promote American prosperity” and “advance American influence.” This finally shows how the 2017 NSS can be understood.]
黑天鹅八号：中国房地产崩盘
The 8th black swan: A collapse of real estate quotations.
黑天鹅九号：美联储加息超预期
The 9th black swan: Expectations regarding the US [Federal Reserve's] augmentation of interest.
[Kaixian tv 汉丰网, quoting the Shenzhen journal New Fortune 新财富 on January 3, 2018]
Visitor from Rome, Italy, and who is interested in Chinese policy.
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