Wednesday, January 03, 2018

China's Fears for 2018

At the beginning of each new year we are inclined to look back at the past year, and we try to predict what trends in political and economic development might become decisive for the year to come.

That's just what the Chinese are doing as well. However, Chinese people are said to be more superstitious than we are in the West. That might be the reason why some Chinese article, published today, is relating the possible dangers to a sound development of China's economy to the influence of nine ominous black swans. The dangers, however, might nevertheless be seen as real.


In 2018 there will be Nine big Black Swans:
Be careful - The devil might be behind your back !


The 1st black swan: Dramatic changes on the Korean peninsula.
[This chapter is referring to the acceleration of political tensions, as observed in 2017.]


The 2nd black swan: A rise of mineral oil prices above 100 US$ [per barrel].


The 3rd black swan: Europe's recovering from failure.


The 4th black swan: The soaring of US shares might end.


The 5th black swan: China undergoing [unstable] expansion.


The 6th black swan: A collapse of Bitcoin market quotations.


The 7th black swan: The Trump Hazard.
[What the Chinese call the "Trump Hazard" can be related to the US president's credo of "America first". The Chinese article casually mentions the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS), which prioritizes U.S. leadership in military, commercial, and scientific components of space, and which is no exception to the Trump administration’s continued desire to “make America great again in space.” As space evolves into a more globally competitive industry, the economic vitality of the U.S. space sector will support key national security goals to “promote American prosperity” and “advance American influence.” This finally shows how the 2017 NSS can be understood.]


The 8th black swan: A collapse of real estate quotations.


The 9th black swan: Expectations regarding the US [Federal Reserve's] augmentation of interest.

[Kaixian tv 汉丰网, quoting the Shenzhen journal New Fortune 新财富 on January 3, 2018]


Visitor from Rome, Italy, and who is interested in Chinese policy.

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