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Trump's oil price fake
US crude export fell under President Biden by 40%, most probably due to a decrease in demand by foreign partners. This is logically leading to a decrease of the crude price. Even though reasons for a lower consumption are mainly positioned abroad, an additional impact of erratic & invasive US politics under the following Trump administration can be expected.
As global crude prices are usually moving around 100 $ per barrel, it is not surprising that such prices had been slightly higher under the predictable rule of Obama and Biden, but didn't pose a problem for US consumers while overall economy was running more quietly without Trump.
From there, any decrease of crude oil prices cannot be
necessarily related to the 'genius' of US president Trump.
As geopolitics still matter, it is quite clear that all kinds of erupting military conflicts and other 'political disturbances' like trade wars are leaving their imprint on the history of crude price development. From time to time, oil extracting countries, united in the OPEC organisation, have to intervene by cutting their production quotes in order to stabilize the global crude oil price:
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Last week now, Trump declared his will to partly abandon sanctions on Russia, allowing Putin to sell giant amounts of diesel fuel on the global market. This happened only shortly after urging European nations to melt down part of their strategic reserves, and which was seen as kind of blackmail by US partners in the EU. This was obviously intended to ease fuel prices for his voters in rural areas of the USA that had already been badly treated by some Chinese retaliatory tariffs on certain agricultural products. Only days before Trump's Midterm Elections, it finally became clear that Trump is forced to abandon sanctions much earlier agreed between the USA & their European partners. It is as if he finally recognized the total failure of his own unpredictable way of managing the complex problems of his country. So Trump's political bankruptcy is as well a moral one. As to the wealth his questionable helpers aquired for him during his presidency, he won't be able to enjoy it as an incompetent inventor of facts showing first signs of premature dementia. |
China's lever on US soybean export
Soybeans are one of US biggest agricultural exports, and China is the most important buyer. The US exported $16.5 billion worth of soybeans last year, making soybeans the second-largest agricultural export after corn, according to the US Department of Agriculture. China buys more soybeans than every other country because it has limited arable land.
That dependence has made soybeans vulnerable to swings in US-China trade policy. In the years before the first Trump trade war in 2018, the American Soybean Association estimated 28% of all US soybean production was shipped to China. When Beijing then imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans in 2018, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated farmers absorbed $9.4 billion in soybean losses, costing Iowa $1.2 billion and Illinois $1.3 billion.
That helps explain why Trump focused on soybeans in his dealmaking with Beijing. In November, he struck a deal with Xi under which China committed to buying at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028. After he met Xi in May, the first time a US president visited China since 2017, the White House announced China agreed to buy at least $17 billion in agricultural products on top of those prior soybean commitments.
But China has options ...
For all of soybeans’ importance to American farmers, China has another supplier: Brazil, a member of the China led commercial alliance of nations BRICS.
Brazil had already overtaken the US as China’s largest soybean supplier over a decade ago, but recent trade tensions have widened the gap. USDA said 71% of China’s soybean imports came from Brazil, and its agricultural attaché in Beijing reported last year that Brazil’s share had continued to grow “at the expense of the United States” which was helped by cheaper prices.
So China left the door half-closed. [Fortune, September 28, 2026]
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