Polymarket recently showed for the Republican candidate, former President Trump, a significant lead with a win rate of 60 percent; the Democratic candidate, Vice President He Jinli is 40 percent, which is very different from the traditional polls showing the situation of both sides.
Four accounts were reportedly paired with more than $30 million (around RM130 million) to bet on Trump’s big win, prompting speculation as Polymarket does not allow Americans to bet on U.S. elections.
Sources confirmed that Polymarket users are international users, and the company certifies all high-value traders to make sure they are not hiding their country through a VPN.It was not immediately possible to confirm that the four accounts were controlled by the same person or persons.
[中国报, Malaysia, on October 19, 2024]
[Elon Musk on X quoting an external (!) post that refers to Polymarket]
美国总统大选：大笔资金操纵 — 预测市场上显示特朗普明显领先。 Polymarket投注者目前认为特朗普有65%的胜算，然而博彩和民调的预测不总是正确的。以希拉里·克林顿为例：在2016年大选她在博彩中领先特朗普。整个竞选期间她在预测和博彩网站上保持着优势。在最后几周她的胜算为80-90%。然而她失去大选。
US Presidential Election: Big Money Manipulation – Forecasts in the Market Show Trump Clearly Ahead. Polymarket bettors now believe Trump has a 65% chance of winning, but betting and polling predictions aren’t always right.Take Hillary Clinton, for example: She led Trump in the 2016 election.Throughout the campaign, she maintained an edge on predictions and betting sites.In the last few weeks, her odds were 80-90%. But she lost the election.
[My shortcut of the original Chinese text, as published on my X account on November 3]
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