Iran's Dilemma and Strategy

As recent naval exercises have shown, the Islamic Republic of Iran is still defiant, even though the Obama administration just confirmed the application of further sanctions. Here now excerpts of a comment on Iran's strategy for the limitation of damage. This evaluation has been published the day before by semi-official People's Network, Beijing:

伊朗在制裁尖刀下寻突围
Iran is seeking to escape the encirclement
with downheld dagger while being punished.

“穿越霍尔木兹海峡的美国航母不要返回波斯湾水域，否则伊朗的反应将不会仅仅停留在建议上”；“制裁不会让伊朗经济伤到一根头发”……最近几天，伊朗政府和军方接连向西方发炮，回击白宫年前出台的针对伊朗石油出口的制裁新措施。
"No U.S. [carrier ship] passing through the strait of Hormuz must return [through] Persian waters. Otherwise Iran's response could not merely restrict to recommendations." "Punishment cannot hurt a tiny bit of Iran's economy. [Lit.: cannot bent a single hair on the head of Iran's economy]" ... During the last days, both, Iranian government and military successively sent a cannonade [of stances] to the West, such striking back at the White House that delivered a stitch [of the needle] to Iran last year and in the frame of new steps against Iranian oil export.

向来嘴不饶人的伊朗，摆出一副无所畏惧的架势，对西方称为“严厉”的制裁轻描淡写地略过。然而外界分析认为，伊朗表面嘴硬，内心则担心制裁的严重后果。而眼下除了喷喷口水显示强硬外，伊朗也开始寻求破解压力的突围之策。
All along a bigmouthed Iran, [not sparing anybody and] assuming a fearless posture, is using the strategy of just occasionally mentioning what the West calls "severe" punishment. However, any foreign analysis is considering Iran's superficial stubbornness [as a sign of] deeply-rooted anxiety of severe consequences that might arise from punishment. Thus at present and in addition to a strong demonstration of gushing saliva directed at the outside, Iran has begun to look for a strategy to escape from the encircling pressure as well.

伊朗寻求斗而不破
Subtitle: Iran is seeking struggle but not rupture.

互摸底线不求战姿态强硬为选战
Subtitle: Trying to gain mutual knowledge of each other's intentions and political lines doesn't [go together with] striving for a state of warring capabilities that is [already] strongly inclined to war.

[来源：人民网>>军事，2012年01月06日]

Below: Location of nuclear facilities in Iran.


Below: Mahjoob Zweiri, Professor of Middle-Eastern politics at
Qatar University, says Iran is not willing to put the option of
talks from the table.


Below: Rear admiral Mahmoud Mousavi, Iranian senior navy commander.


Below: Satellite photo showing the Strait of Hormuz.


Latest News:
الجيش الأمريكي يواصل تعزيز وجوده بمنطقة الخليج
الولايات المتحدة "سترد" إذا سعت إيران إلى إغلاق مضيق هرمز

U.S. forces continue their reinforcement and [deployment] in the Golf region. - The United States "will repulse" in case Iran might close the strait of Hormuz.
[Source: Al-Arabiya TV, January 8, 2012]