On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Russian-Ukrainian war, here is a rare evaluation of Russia in the view of a Chinese commentator working for a majority state-owned Chinese medium.
Update on latest development
included on 7 January 2023.
One year ago, on 28 January 2022, some Chinese comment discussed the feasability of a joint Iranian-Afghan-Chinese oil pipeline project intended to connect Iranian oil fields with China's western province of Xinjiang via northern Afghanistan.
In March 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Tehran and signed a 25-year joint comprehensive political, economic and cultural cooperation agreement with Iran. In January this year [i.e. 2022], the foreign minister of the new Iranian government paid a return visit to China, and the 25-year cooperation agreement was officially implemented. In other words, the Lehi government, which came to power in August 2021, continued the Rouhani government's China policy, and even went a little further. Energy issues are particularly prominent within the framework of cooperation. In the context of the withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan and the Taliban being on friendly terms with China, and under the premise of Afghan society being stabilized, the connection of Iran’s Persian Gulf (outlet to the sea) to China’s Xinjiang oil pipelines running through Afghanistan would greatly reduce the possibility of China’s energy source being blocked. The agreement solves the problem of Iran's energy guarantee to China. At the same time, taking into account the long-term nature of Afghanistan's construction, the time is set at 25 years, giving China sufficient time for construction.
Today now, on 6 January 2023, German National Radio 'Deutschlandfunk' quoted an external source on China having signed a contract with the Taliban government in Afghanistan for the exploitation of an oil field.
Hours later, some Chinese source confirmed the fact of negotiations on exploitation rights between China and the Taliban. The location of a certain oil field in question was specially mentioned. It should be lying in the Amudarya region where crude oil and natural gas reserves had already been known to exist, at the time US military engaged in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 'September 11 incidents' of 2001.
However, up to now the security problem is still an issue in Afghanistan, even though Taliban authorities are doing their best to please their friendly Chinese partners. The prove is a recent attack of terrorists on a Kabul hotel that is being regularly frequented by Chinese visitors to Afghanistan.
Around 2:30 pm on 12 December 2022, local time, several terrorists suddenly broke into a hotel in the center of Kabul. According to foreign media, this is a "hotel very popular with Chinese people". Taliban security forces rushed in immediately and killed three armed men on the spot.
Looking at the picture, there are Chinese characters written on the outer wall of the hotel: Kabul Guiyuan Hotel.
Days before, Chinese diplomats had allegedly contacted the deputy minister for security of the Taliban to ensure enforcement of security for the Chinese embassy.
The day after the incident some Chinese source reported:
阿富汗传来一个坏消息 与我们中国人有关
Title: Bad news from Afghanistan are related to our Chinese.
Who did it ?
"Islamic State" fighting the Taliban. Just on the morning of the 13th [December] Beijing time, I saw the latest news that the "Islamic State" had declared responsibility for the attack on the Guiyuan Hotel.
Many people think that the Taliban is extreme, but the real extreme is actually the "Islamic State".
After news about an Afghan-Chinese oil deal recently spread on the internet, latest Chinese publications stressed the humanitarian character of China's cooperation with the Taliban, even mentioning the goal of promoting woman rights in Afghanistan. One report made it clear that about 3.000 Afghan workers could be employed in the frame of the Chinese oil exploitation program. However, China doesn't seem to be fully satisfied with support provided by the Taliban.
Above: What looks like the signing of a contract, should be
the delivery of aid materials to the Taliban authorities.
....................
On the contrary, things between China and Iran are running rather smoothly since 2022.
Above: Iran's Chabahar port soon open to Chinese ships [04-01-2023].
Above: Chinese article on the history of Iranian-Chinese relations [05-01-2023].
Today, the Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida is going to officially launch a major change in Japan's military strategy, thus switching from a mere defensive attitude of its military to the enforcement of its first responder abilities including the means of a direct attack on foreign missile launch sites. The reasons of that change of policy are recent North Korean missile tests that were harming Japan's zone of military defense, leaving Japan only minutes to react in times of war. According to recent news, this goes side by side with an alleged intrusion of Chinese and Russian war planes into Japan's zone of military defense and China's policy in the South China Sea and towards Taiwan.
For the purpose of shaking-up its military abilities, Japan is expected to up its security spending to two percent of GDP by 2027, reshape its military command, and acquire new missiles that can strike far-flung enemy launch sites.
China's news center CHINA.COM 中华网 immediately answered to Japan's decision to promote an essential change in its military strategy in order to respond to an increasing danger from China. They are saying that China's policy of opening up to its neighbours has triggered an increase of Chinese tourists visiting Japan, thus promoting Japanese earnings from tourism. Furthermore, China's splendid economic development offers a chance for Japanese business as well of investing in China.
On [May] 17, a comprehensive report from Pyongyang informed that North Korea's coronavirus epidemic continues to spread. On Wednesday [May 18], the North Korean Central News Agency reported 232,800 new cases of 'fever' having emerged the day before. Six more people died, bringing the total to more than 1.71 million cases [of infections], with 62 deaths and about 690,000 people still receiving treatment.
.....
Official reports also stated that nearly 3,000 soldiers are stationed in hundreds of pharmacies in Pyongyang, reporting every 24-hours, in order to assist life saving measures with medical supplies and [direct] response.
Nearly 500 mobile epidemic prevention teams and treatment teams are carrying out diagnosis and treatment work as well across the country.
[星洲网 A Chinese language news center from Malaysia on May 18]
Here is an unusual obituary for battleship 'Moscow', flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Even though modernized, it should have served the Russian navy during the last 40 years. Now it sank due to an 'explosion of ammunition', probably incited by Ukrainian forces using cutting edge anti-ship missiles.
As to the destruction of the Ukrainian Antonov AN-225, the biggest aircraft ever built, here is a video footage showing the damage inflicted by Russian military and which is mentioned in the above 'obituary':
[An official Ukrainian source stated on April 13:] The Ukrainian army used the 'Neptun' missile to seriously damage missile cruiser 'Moscow', the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
The R-360 Neptun missile system is the latest Ukrainian version of a Russian system. It was pre-produced in small series in 2021 and planned to enter military service by 2022.
Yesterday, April 11, the news agency American Press AP quoted the Polish Press Agency PAP as follows:
The latest of the commission’s reports, released Monday, alleges that an intentional detonation of planted explosives caused the April 10, 2010 crash of Soviet-made Tu-154M plane that killed [Poland's president Lech] Kaczynski, the first lady and 94 other government and armed forces figures as well as many prominent Poles.
Their deaths were the result of an “act of unlawful interference by the Russian side,” the commission's head Antoni Macierewicz told a news conference.
"The main and indisputable proof of the interference was an explosion in the left wing ... followed by an explosion in the plane's center," said Macierewicz, who in 2015-2018 served as defense minister in Poland's right-wing government.
He denied that any mistakes were made by the Polish pilots or crew members, despite bad weather at the time of the crash. [The crash took place on a military airfield near Smolensk, Russia.]
Editor's Note:
The above quoted Polish sub-committee report has an official status, and PAP is a government financed press agency. However, political development in EU member state Poland has become complicated in recent years. As American Press AP put it: The latest report once again drums up hostility toward Russia among some Poles, chiefly supporters of the nationalist government, in what seems to be an effort to consolidate the voter base of the Law and Justice party, which was founded by the Kaczynski twins in 2001.
Yesterday, April 6, semi-official People's Network published a statement given by the spokesman for the Chinese Mission to the European Union. That statement rejects EU accusations of China spreading unacceptable Russian conspiracy theories on the issue of the Ukrainian war, blaming the United States and NATO.
The Chinese statement indirectly hints at America's foreign policy under former US presidents like George W. Bush and which had led to the destabilization of Afghanistan and Iraq, yet without directly naming anybody. Published by China's semi-official online voice, that statement revives the idea of what the Chinese people got to know as 'US imperialism', allegedly representing a hegemonial attitude based on wrong accusations and tactical lies and which doesn't even refrain from the use of military force.
The statement, however, doesn't show any shift of position on the Chinese side. It only reiterates what is already known about China's verbal intention to recognize basic norms of international relations while acting in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and its commitment to promote peace talks and efforts to cool down the situation.
The spokesperson [for the Chinese Mission to the European Union] reiterated that China's position on the Ukraine issue is consistent, clear, objective and fair. The relevant article deliberately distorts China's position and proposition. China expresses strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to this. We remind those concerned not to be selectively blind. In the past few decades, who has spread false information and launched wars to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries? Who is constantly expanding regional influence and disrupting regional stability? Who provoked the conflict and caused the massive humanitarian disaster? Does such responsibility still need to be "blamed"? Double standards cannot deceive the eyes of the world, and the alliance of the old Cold War era can never represent fairness and justice.
AFP [on a regular press conference]: EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell said that Chinese officials were reluctant to talk about Ukraine during the China-EU leaders' meeting last week. How do you respond to this?
Zhao Lijian [spokesman for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs]: A few days ago, the leaders of China and the EU held a very successful meeting. The remarks of the relevant European officials you just mentioned are not in line with the facts. What the relevant EU officials should do is to advance the bilateral relations between China and the EU in accordance with the consensus and spirit reached at the China-EU leaders' meeting, instead of making irresponsible remarks.
Only one day after the official statement was made by China's EU Mission, immediately confirmed by a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a more popular and less diplomatic version of China's stance appeared as 'personal view' in China's Defense Journal.
China's Policy of "Saying One Thing, Doing Another"
Eurasianet, a news center specialized on the Caucasus region and Central Asia, came to the following conclusion:
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has said all the right things in support of Russia, its professed strategic partner. Chinese officials have faithfully repeated Russian propaganda, refusing to describe the unprovoked attack on Ukraine as a “war” or “invasion,” while echoing the Kremlin claim that NATO’s expansionist desires are the root cause of the conflict.
But Beijing’s actions are telling a different story, underscored by the March 9 Foreign Ministry announcement that the Chinese Red Cross is supplying almost $800,000 in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. The amount is small, but the gesture is significant in the current context: Chinese leaders are hedging their geopolitical bets.
It was just over a month ago that Russian leader Vladimir Putin met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The two issued a joint statement describing bilateral relations as “superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era,” and cooperation as having “no limits.”
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, however, China’s behavior toward Russia has been circumspect and restrained, its officials proclaiming solidarity with Russia without following up in substance. Before Russian troops attacked, Chinese officials spoke against Western sanctions. But once the United States and European Union started imposing sanctions and disconnecting Russian banks from the SWIFT financial network, leading Chinese financial institutions began quietly adhering to the restrictions, according to Bloomberg news service.
A personal view published in the Chinese Financial Times Network put it that way:
There is now a popular view at home and abroad that China will be an important beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The reason is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict highlights the contradiction between Russia and the West, especially the United States, and leads the United States' strategic focus from Asia to Europe, which will reduce the international pressure on China. In other words, China will be the winner of this geopolitical conflict. To demonstrate this point, the claim often cites the US war in Afghanistan as an example. After President George W. Bush took office in 2001, he planned to exert more pressure on China, but the "9·11" terrorist attack in 2001 completely changed this situation. In the following 20 years, the United States has devoted itself to combating international terrorism, thus easing the pressure on China. China has therefore won 20 years of golden development opportunities and made great strides in economic construction. Now, at a time when the United States regained focus on deploying a geopolitical strategy of "back to Asia" and treating China as a strategic competitor, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out again, which prompted the United States to reconsider its global strategy and allocate more power to Europe.
It is therefore that China will not be inclined to join ranks with a global majority of nations to oppose Putin's war on Ukraine. China's priority would rather be a silent reconstruction of global alliances and delivery chains to compensate for the damage inflicted by Putin's war on China's 'One Road One Belt' strategy in Central Asia.
Furthermore, showing public disagreement with Putin's macciavellian strategy for eastern Europe could reshift the focus of international criticism to China's own domestic and global strategies.
China Still Follows its Global Economic Strategy
On April 2, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong published an article titled "Why the War in Ukraine Won't Derail China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative's ambitious goals". The author is Hong Kong - APEC Trade David Dodwell, executive director of the Policy Research Group.
The Eurasian Railway was an astonishing success. About 1.5 million containers travelled between China and 130 cities in 23 European countries last year, accounting for 5-8% of trade between China and Europe at a time when the pandemic has disrupted sea and air freight.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has undoubtedly disrupted transportation, but it would be inaccurate to think that this will have a significant impact in the long run.
For Beijing, the Eurasian railway is just one of many projects China is seeking to diversify market access to world trade, reduce its reliance on the Straits of Malacca and the Suez Canal, and ensure long-term access to commodities that are chronically undersupplied at home. According to Refinitiv's Belt and Road Initiative database, it already includes 2,631 projects around the world with a total value of US$3.7 trillion.
From this perspective, the Belt and Road Initiative provides an extremely important defense against an unstable world. The Eurasian Railway will lose some container transportation business in the short term, which will not keep the Chinese up at night.
U.S. President Biden, notorious for his unexpected and open-hearted remarks that usually require immediate correction from his advisors, once put it that way: 'Putin is a man without a soul'.
Biden seen as an empathic personality might be right about that, at least in the clerical sense he defines a 'human soul'. But what else did we expect from a Russian leader who emerged from the dark empire of the Soviet Union as a shrewd member of his country's intelligence.
Biden, like most politicians raised in what we call the 'free world', has undergone a public development that excluded the secret formation of a 'dark triad personality'. As a result, people belonging to the three groups of dark triad personalities (psychopathy, Machiavellianism, narcissism) would find it difficult to hide their inclination from the public when striving for the highest-ranking positions of their country. In fact, we find it easy to detect such persons in public life, starting from Senator McCarthy up to President Donald Trump, not to mention McCarthy's right hand Roy Cohn who should have played, as well, a role in the personal formation of young Donald Trump. Sometimes it is just their special inclination which makes up for their public attraction, - or public rejection on the contrary.
A dark triad personality is usually connected with a lack of empathy, however, there are some of them who are unexpectedly gifted with a fully developed empathy they could use to follow their dark inclination.
"A dark empath may actually be more dangerous than a more cold and unfeeling dark triad type, because the so-called dark empath can draw you in closer—and do more harm as a result," says Ramani Durvasula, PhD, clinical psychologist and author of "Don't You Know Who I Am?": How To Stay Sane in an Era of Narcissism, Entitlement, and Incivility. "The closer you are to someone, the more you can hurt them."
Basic information on the subject is given in the linked article. As to the characteristics of dark empaths scientists found out:
Though the aggression reported by the dark empaths was not as high as the traditional dark triad group, the danger of this personality profile is that their empathy, and likely resulting social skills, make their darkness harder to spot. We believe that dark empaths have the capacity to be callous and ruthless, but are able to limit such aggression. [Nadja Heym, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, and Alexander Sumich, Associate Professor of Psychology, both Nottingham Trent University]
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin had been raised in the post-Stalinist era, flooded with an aggressive propaganda which was directed against real and imagined enemies of the Soviet Union. Like many other youths of his age he was attracted by the adventurous and heroic world of state security, a world of deception, lies and sometimes bloody terror that must have deeply influenced a young personality in his development. So he became familiar with the 'dark triad' aspect of some kind of secret brotherhood which existed apart from daily life.
What made him so successful inside KGB and boostered his career, that was his strong empathic ability to evaluate people and manipulate them. This was confirmed by one of his former superiors in a video.
Putin can therefore be seen as a typical 'dark empath' as defined by modern psychology.
As long as he remained in the shadow of a secret organisation, his personal inclination remained in the dark as well. But when his efficiency in solving problems for the Jelzin administration finally brought him into the office of a prime-minister of Russia, things changed dramatically. In a video interview after his inauguration, he obviously felt unwell facing the necessity to lead a public life.
In the end, however, he came to terms with his newly won popularity. Successful suppression of the Russian media and of opposition groups and activists reduced the slightest risk for him to lose his face in the public. There is simply nobody left in an influential position who might get in his way. And the Russian people are so much indoctrinated by the official media that they have come to believe anything or fear to show the slightest sign of disagreement.
A history of Vladimir Putin by Dr. Mark Felton
produced for his non-political history channel.
Putin on Russian 'traitors'
within the oligarch class.
Western people understand this war through one-sided networks, and naturally they can only form one-sided public opinion. According to the Associated Press, a Feb. 23 poll found that 26% of Americans believe the United States should play a major role in the conflict. On the 28th, 83% of Americans supported increasing sanctions against Russia. And that's exactly what the U.S. government needs.
The German historian Theodor Mommsen (*) once said: "The important thing in war is to seek political results, not military success." Today's war may have to add another one, seeking victory in the field of public opinion. Because success in this area will not only affect the course of the war, but may also affect the long-term development of the country in the post-war period. It is not easy for Putin to achieve victory on both the military and public opinion fronts.
(*) Theodor Mommsen 特奥多尔·蒙森 [1817-1903] was a German scholar who became known for historical research on antiquity.
And here is what another editor marked as 'personal opinion':
The three points Putin did not expect are listed in the article as follows:
1. Putin did not expect the Ukrainian army to be so tenacious. ......
2. Unexpectedly, the reaction from the US and Europe was so intense. ......
3. The combat mode of the Russian army is so clumsy.
A large number of tanks have been destroyed, many armored vehicles have been abandoned, and supply lines have been cut off, all of which have been experienced by the Russian army in the past month. Whether it is the siege of Kiev, Kharkov, or the fierce battle for Mariupol, the Russian army's way of advancing is still the same. Tank cannons play the leading role.
..........
In 2022, there will be more black swans, more gray rhinos, and more unexpected farces. We only hope that Russia and Ukraine will shake hands and make peace as soon as possible, so that this cruel war will come to an end. If we continue to fight it, we can only let the United States earn the benefits.
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UPDATE March 27:
On March 27 semi-official SINA quoted Russia's presidential spokesman Peskov as saying, Biden's evaluation of Putin as a 'butcher' and who 'should not rule Russia' surprised him, given that Biden once supported the 'bombing of Yugoslavia' in 1999. It might not have been NATO's brightest hour to bomb the capital of Serbia, considered as a rogue state at that time. But two Serbian nationalist leaders, Milosevic and Karasic, were behind a bloody war that destabilized multinational Yugoslavia. Both of them were tried much later for genocide before the International Court of Justice in Den Haag. Milosevic died in his prison cell before the court reached a decision on him while Karasic and military leader Mladic were finally sentenced as war criminals. I still remember the news of the Chinese embassy being accidentally hit in the Belgrade bombing.
Lets talk about hypersonic missiles:
Well, the Russians have them. The Chinese have them. The US as well. Not to forget the North Koreans.
Only difference so far: Russia showed off its Kinzhal missiles in a battlefield environment and destroyed two enemy targets in the frame of Putin's 'specially operated war' on Ukraine.
We understand that such weapons are constructed to outwit enemy missile defense systems, especially when hypersonic gliders change their direction during flight. But if that's really successful under war conditions, nobody knows up to know.
China News Service, March 22 - Twenty-two days after the launch of military operations in Ukraine, the Russian military launched the "Dagger" hypersonic missile for the first time.
However, American and Western officials and media's comments on this powerful weapon are a bit "sour". Some Western experts said that Russia is "showing off its skills", and some media said that Russia just wants to gain a psychological advantage to "scare everyone".
The photo included in the above quoted article is showing a Russian MIG-31 able to carry hypersonic weapons.
Today, 中国侨网, a Network for Chinese abroad, issued an official warning for Chinese expats not to return to Ukraine. The article is providing emergency telephone numbers in case of need.
From China's TV station CCTV we learn that an evacuation flight has saved further Chinese expats from Ukraine this morning. By the way, it should have been the fourteenth flight so far. And there is some ambiguity in a Chinese media report about another delivery of Chinese aid to Ukraine that should have arrived in Warshaw, Poland. The Shanghai media report included some kind of statement that could be intended to question the reliability of such information, rather unusual for media from China Mainland. Maybe, that aid delivery has been combined with a repatriation flight for Chinese refugees from Ukraine, and that statement was used to point at another possibility to leave the region.
