Trump & Israel - Reshaping the Middle East特朗普与以色列—改造中东

BREAKING UPDATE on March 21 / 22 / 24

Egyptian president el-Sisi made a u-turn from his former position opposing Trump's Relocation Plan for Gaza citizens. He now declared his readiness to accept half a million displaced persons from Gaza in his country. The decision was made public today, March 21.

At the moment there is no reason known for Egypt's unusual turn. Jordan still rejects Trump's relocation plan for the Gaza strip, intended to facilitate its redevelopment into a " Gaza Riviera " for new settlers.






印度媒体：在伊朗核设施Natanz附近观察到五级地震，但是伊朗原子能组织副主席贝赫鲁兹·卡迈勒万迪说，根据纳坦兹核设施的设计，即使是威力更大的地震也不会对其造成。 《نور نيوز》伊朗，3月22日

قالت مصادر مطلعة، الجمعة، إن إسرائيل تسعى لإبلاغ الولايات المتحدة بأنها لا يمكنها غض الطرف عن امتلاك إيران للسلاح النووي. وذكر مصدر عسكري إسرائيلي أن هدف بلاده "هو توعية ترامب (الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب) بأن إيران على وشك امتلاك قنبلة نووية ولا يمكننا غض الطرف عن ذلك". وكان موقع أكسيوس قد ذكر، الخميس، أن محادثات إسرائيلية أميركية بشأن الملف النووي الإيراني ستعقد الأسبوع المقبل في الولايات المتحدة.

Informed sources said on Friday [March 21] that Israel is seeking to convey to the United States that it cannot turn a blind eye to Iran's possession of a nuclear weapon. An Israeli military source stated that his country's goal "is to make Trump (US President Donald Trump) aware that Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb and we cannot turn a blind eye to that." Axios [US website / Arlington VA] reported on Thursday that Israeli-American talks on the Iranian nuke issue will be held next week in the United States. 以色列军方消息人士称，该国的目标是“让特朗普（美国总统唐纳德·特朗普）意识到伊朗即将获得核弹，我们不能对此视而不见”。

Qatar raises a very serious issue

The Qatari request came within the speech of the representative of Qatar, Ambassador Jassim Yaqoub Al-Hammadi, before the session of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which was held in the Austrian capital, Vienna, on the ninth of this month, where the ambassador called for "subjecting all Israeli nuclear facilities to the supervision of the Agency, and for Israel to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear state." In his speech, he referred to several international resolutions, which affirmed that Israel must subject all its nuclear facilities to international monitoring, and to sign the International Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, noting that Israel is the only country that has not acceded to this treaty.

The importance of the Qatari step is that it came in light of the official Arab "tone" on the Israeli nuclear program according to developments and normalization policies, but Qatar is at the beginning and in the end a small country, and it alone will not be able to bear the burden of an open confrontation with Israel, over the holy of its holies deep in the land of the Dimona oven. The required duty is a comprehensive Arab and regional campaign to disarm Israel and stop projects to produce nuclear weapons, if any, in any country in the region, but despite the paramount importance of this issue and the fact that it is a threat to the national security of the Arab countries, no serious campaign has yet been launched to disarm Israel of its nuclear weapons in accordance with international law and the interests of all the peoples of the region.
A very serious issue.

According to the 2024 yearbook of the Stockholm-based International Institute for Peace Studies, Israel has 90 atomic warheads, is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and developing a radioactive material enrichment reactor, which is used in the production of atomic bombs. Perhaps the most important observation of the Institute at the global level and its line in the book is that "the number and types of nuclear weapons being developed have increased significantly in light of the deepening dependence of countries on nuclear deterrence." This applies to Israel, which is reportedly constantly accumulating its nuclear weapons, amounting, according to many estimates and studies, to at least 200 nuclear bombs. This is a threat to the national security of all countries in the region without exception, especially since Israel in general tends to war and the illusion of "military solutions" and avoids seeking peace and stability, even as a maneuver. The worsening tensions and the current and future Israeli fronts of confrontation may at some point reach a catastrophic "nuclear situation." The Israeli nuclear project has always posed a threat to the peoples and countries of the region, and it is becoming increasingly dangerous according to a number of variables and developments:

ثانيا، لا يمكن الرهان على اتزان القيادة الإسرائيلية، فهي يمينية متطرّفة، وبعضها يحمل فكرا خلاصيا غيبيا، وهي قابلة أكثر من السابق لاتخاذ قرار الضغط على الزر النووي، ببواعث غير عقلانية، أو بدوافع عقلانية أداتية باردة. كما أن البوصلة الأمنية لهذه القيادات تحوّرت نحو المزيد من العدوانية والوحشية والقوّة العسكرية العارية، ونحو الاتكاء على الإسراع في إخماد أي تهديد مها كلّف الثمن. وبالمجمل، يمكن القول إنه بعد السابع من أكتوبر أصبح مفهوم الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي أكثر تشدّدا، وزادت خطورة «النووي الإسرائيلي» تبعا لتوسيع مفهوم «الخطر الوجودي». فالادعاء الإسرائيلي المركزي هو أن السلاح النووي لن يستعمل إلا في حالة تهديد الوجود.

At the moment, it is not possible to bet on the balance of the Israeli leadership, as it is far-right, some of which carry a metaphysical salvation ideology, and it is more likely than before to make the decision to press the nuclear button, with irrational motives, or with rational and cold instrumental motives. The security compass of these leaders has also shifted towards more aggression, brutality and naked military force, and towards leaning on the haste to extinguish any threat at all costs. In general, it can be said that after the seventh of October, the concept of Israeli national security became more militant, and the danger of "Israeli nuclear" increased due to the expansion of the concept of "existential danger". Israel's central claim is that a nuclear weapon will only be used in case of existential threats.

Thirdly, the atomic furnace facility in Dimona is very dangerous because it is old and has been in operation for about 60 years, and it is already intended to operate for a maximum of 40 years, and its counterparts have been closed for a long time. What makes it even more dangerous is that this old furnace is close to the epicenter of earthquakes in Palestine, which are repeated every hundred years, and the last tremor was in 1927. What has hit peaceful atomic furnaces in Japan and China as a result of earthquakes is an alarm that the Dimona military furnace, which contains weapons and much more dangerous materials, is vulnerable to cracking and possibly collapse as a result of a possible earthquake, in which case radiation will reach large areas in the West Bank, Gaza, Sinai and Jordan. Since the Dimona oven is not subject to international control and there is no accurate information about its durability and resilience to tremors, there is an urgent need to pressure international institutions to form an international engineering team to inspect the structure of the oven, and the severity of an earthquake on it. A cursory glance at the map is enough to show that Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority have a direct interest and a solid basis for raising the issue of the "danger of the Dimona oven".

" We are now facing an offensive Israeli military doctrine that is devoid of restraints,
and this Israeli thug possesses a nuclear weapon, which he uses to intimidate his
surroundings and impose a fait accompli. "

" 我们现在正面临着一个毫无约束的进攻性以色列军事教条，而这个以色列暴徒拥有核武器，
他利用它来吓唬周围的环境并强加既成事实 "

[القدس العربي, Palestinian paper on March 12 巴利斯坦新闻]



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Link: UKRAINE - Crimea Referendum 2014 & Soviet History

[Sowjetische Nachkriegsliteratur in deutscher Sprache]

@ Ukraine - Russian_Missile_Defense @

@ The following information is based on Chinese media information from the day before:

@ Last year, a Storm Shadow missile launched by Ukraine fell into the Russian-occupied territory with almost no damage and was picked up by the Russian army as a trophy. The reason was not clear at the time. Now photos taken by the Russian Navy show that, It may have been shot down by the armor close-in defense system (Pantsir-M).

Navy Recognition reported that the Storm Shadow missile was targeting a military target near the coast of Crimea. However, the Pantsir-M close-in defense system of the light frigate Taifun detected it early, intercepted it and destroyed it.

Pantsir-M System

The Taifun belongs to Project 22800 and the Black Widow Class (Karakurt Class). This is a light frigate with a displacement of 860 tons. It has 4 ultra-small phased array radars (unknown shape and number) and 3D radars. It is known as "The world's smallest Aegis warship."

Its firepower is also quite powerful. It has a vertical launch system and can launch Kalibr-NK cruise missiles and may also launch P-800 "Oniks" supersonic anti-ship missiles. For short-range defense, they installed the maritime type "Pantsir-M" (CIWS Pantsir-M) after the Russo-Ukrainian War, which has proven its effectiveness in recent incidents.

Oleg Ryazantsev, general manager of the Russian State-owned Military Complex (NPO), said that this shooting down incident should be the first actual combat demonstration of the Pantsir system.

The Armor system is a hybrid missile-quick artillery close-in defense system. Eight missiles can intercept air targets at a distance of 20 kilometers. Two 30mm cannons can destroy air targets within 4 kilometers. The gun's rate of fire is as high as 10,000 rounds per minute, which significantly improves the ship's survivability. @

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Another article from the same day deals with new activities regarding the cooperation between North Korea and Russia:

North Korea's official media KCNA established a new category on its website on the 9th, "DPRK-Russia Friendly Relations Ushering in a Historical Turning Point." This category published a total of 148 articles, including the April 2019 summit between leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin. talks, as well as a delegation sent by the Ministry of Education to visit Russia on the 6th of this month.

The South Korean media "Joongang Ilbo" analyzed that it is rare for the Korean Central News Agency, the window for North Korea to express its position to the outside world, to create a new category focusing on North Korea's relations with a specific country. The Korean Central News Agency has previously disclosed the visit of Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), to Pyongyang from March 25 to 27. It is also very inappropriate to publicly report the foreign visits of the leaders of the intelligence agency in a secret form. Ordinary.

Analysis pointed out that the KCNA was intended to demonstrate the friendly relations between North Korea and Russia that include all-round cooperation in the fields of military, tourism, culture and other fields, and to pave the way for President Putin's future visit to North Korea.

..........

Regarding the timing of his visit to North Korea, the Kremlin has recently stated that it is very unlikely that Putin will visit North Korea before the Russian presidential election in March, so the visit may be scheduled shortly after his trip to China. Putin is expected to make his first overseas trip during his fifth term in May and hold leadership talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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US based visitor statistics. Data traffic passing through Hong Kong and Singapore nodes
is not included and has been detected otherwise. Such data are leading to the assumption
of an increasing traffic to PR China, based on certain characteristics of client systems.

Visitor statistics recorded by a European provider
for the same period of time on April 12, 2024.

European providers are recording additional data traffic
which is passing through different global internet nodes.
Clients <= US provider <=> European provider => Clients
My article on that subject: Riding the Internet Backbone

Data request from a Zürich client (Switzerland) handled by
an internet node in Virginia (USA, Area of Washington DC).

Russia's Black Sea Fleet Under Attack - Background

UPDATE on September 26 included below.

Video of one of the missiles hit at Black Sea Fleet HQ.
No signs of air defense even attempting to intercept it.

据悉，该指挥所是在苏联时代建立的，曾经是乌克兰海军中央通信中心，编号A-2929，俄军占领克里米亚后，将其改名为黑海舰队指挥部第744通信中心。该中心由多栋地面建筑和一个庞大的天线网组成，还有庞大的地下部分，可以与俄罗斯海军其他舰队和更上级单位通信。

通常来说，这类军事设施本身就具备很强的防御能力，可以抵挡重磅炸弹的直接命中，附近还有防空系统保护，不过，英国和法国提供给乌克兰的“风暴阴影”、“斯卡普-EG”这两款导弹，其“钻孔”战斗部被设计用来专门对付这类目标：在击中目标后，“钻孔”的第一级聚能战斗部会在建筑物的外墙上打出一个洞，第二级高爆战斗部从这个洞里钻进目标建筑物内部爆炸。

It is reported that the command post was established in the Soviet era and was once the Central Communications Center of the Ukrainian Navy, number A-2929, which was renamed the 744th Communications Center of the Black Sea Fleet Command after the Russian army occupied Crimea. The center consists of several above-ground buildings and a large network of antennas, as well as a large underground section that can communicate with other fleets of the Russian Navy and higher-level units.

Usually, such military installations themselves have strong defensive capabilities to withstand direct hits from heavy bombs, and there are air defense systems nearby, but the "Storm Shadow" and "Scalp-EG" missiles [French version of Storm Shadow], provided by Britain and France to Ukraine, with "drilling" warheads are designed to deal specifically with such targets: After hitting the target, the "drill shaped" first-stage warhead will make a hole in the outer wall of the building, and the second-stage high-explosive warhead will drill into the target building from this hole and explode.

值得注意的是，这次袭击是在白天进行的，而以往的类似袭击则是在深夜或黎明时分发动的。不确切的信息显示，乌克兰空军的苏-24M“击剑手”前线轰炸机发射了多枚“风暴阴影”巡航导弹，并发射了3枚AGM-160 MALD诱饵弹，但部署在塔尔汉库特角和贝尔贝克机场的俄军“铠甲-S1”防空系统击落了5枚导弹，3枚导弹则突防成功并击中目标。

视觉证据证实，本月以来，包括在干船坞里被毁的“明斯克”号登陆舰和“顿河畔罗斯托夫”号潜艇在内，黑海舰队已经至少有6艘舰艇遭乌克兰军队攻击，其中4艘被毁或被击沉，黑海舰队面对这种袭击无能为力，被迫将军舰疏散，登陆舰前往亚速海，潜艇则撤往新罗西斯克，当然，新罗西斯克也不安全，那里也曾被乌克兰海军的自杀式无人艇攻击过。

It is noteworthy that this attack was carried out during the day, while similar attacks in the past were distributed late at night or at dawn. Inaccurate information indicates that the Ukrainian Air Force's Su-24M "Fencson" front-line bombers fired multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles and fired 3 AGM-160 MALD decoy shells, but the Russian "Pantsir-S1" air defense system deployed at Cape Talhancourt and Belbek Airport shot down 5 missiles, and 3 missiles successfully penetrated and hit targets.

Visual evidence confirms that since this month, including the landing ship "Minsk" and the submarine "Rostov-on-Don" destroyed in dry dock, at least 6 ships of the Black Sea Fleet have been attacked by Ukrainian forces, 4 of which have been destroyed or sunk, and the Black Sea Fleet is powerless in the face of such an attack. Forced to evacuate the warships, the landing ship goes to the Sea of Azov and the submarine withdraws to Novorossiysk. Novorossiysk, however, is not safe and has also been attacked by unmanned suicide boats of the Ukrainian Navy.

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UPDATE on September 26:

For fear of Russian air strikes, Ukrainian grain transporters have been temporarily anchoring their ships at night on the Romanian bank of the Danube arm Chilia, which forms the border with Ukraine. Diplomats from the EU and the United States had negotiated this protection option with Romanian and Ukrainian authorities in August, told the director of the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta, Florian Vizan, the German Press Agency (DPA). He had been present at these talks.

Ukrainian Drone Attack on Remote Russian Airfield

Three hours ago, the Chinese news center 腾讯 quoted Russian, Ukrainian and Western reports about Ukrainian drones having attacked a remote Russian military airfield on August 30.

卫星照片曝光，至少2架伊尔-76受损！俄媒称乌军已在地面炸毁24架战机

Satellite photos exposed that at least 2 Il-76s were damaged ! Russian media said the Ukrainian army has blown up 24 war planes on the ground.

美国遥感卫星数据公司星球实验室(Planet Labs)发布了遭无人机袭击后的俄罗斯普斯科夫机场卫星照片，在卫星照片上能明显看到两架伊尔-76运输机受损，从受损位置推测无人机试图攻击伊尔-76运输机的油箱部分，在其中一架伊尔-76运输机附近，还有两辆疑似消防车的红色汽车。

Planet Labs, a US remote sensing satellite data company, released satellite photos of Pskov airport in Russia after the drone attack. On the satellite photos two damaged Il-76 transport aircraft can clearly be seen. From the damaged position it is speculated that the drones tried to attack the fuel tank part of the Il-76 transport aircraft. Near one of the Il-76 transport aircraft, there are two red cars suspected as fire engines.

Editor's Note: Russia's Pskov airfield (普斯科夫机场) is situated north of Belarus, near the border to the Baltic states Estland and Lettland. That means it is more difficult to reach than most other military airfields in Western Russia.

需要说明的是，由于当地云层太厚，卫星并未拍到普斯科夫机场的整体照片。稍早一些，乌克兰军情总局（GUR）宣称，在对普斯科夫机场的发起的自杀式无人机袭击中，乌克兰军队摧毁了4架伊尔-76运输机，机场的加油设施也受到了攻击。俄罗斯方面否认了这些说法，并称没有任何人员和物质损失。

It should be noted that due to the thick local clouds, the satellite did not take an overall photo of Pskov airfield. Earlier, the Main Intelligence Service of Ukraine (GUR) announced that Ukrainian forces destroyed four Il-76 transport planes in a suicide drone attack on Pskov airfield. The airport's refueling facilities were attacked, as well. The Russian side denied such claims and said there were no human and material losses.

在分析了俄罗斯国防部、媒体和开源情报机构的报告后，俄罗斯媒体Verstka称自去年开战后，截至目前，乌克兰军队对俄罗斯、克里米亚和白俄罗斯的空军基地发起了至少9次袭击，在这些袭击中，至少有24架飞机被损坏。

After analyzing reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense, media and open-source intelligence agencies, Russian media outlet Verstka said that since the start of war last year, the Ukrainian army has launched at least nine attacks on air bases in Russia, Crimea and Belarus so far, in which at least 24 aircraft have been damaged.

Map of Russian military airfields attacked and aircraft damaged (number/type) by
Ukrainian suicide drone attacks since the beginning of war (2022 - August 2023).

Ukraine - Bigger Damage Inflicted on Crimean Bridge

Here some excerpts from different Chinese sources that published their reports about the 2nd Ukrainian attack, targeting the strategically important Kerch Bridge in Russian occupied Crimea on July 17. They are quoting today's news from China's CCTV (July 19).

主管交通运输的俄罗斯联邦副总理马拉特·胡斯努林说：“克里米亚大桥公路部分的一跨已被摧毁且无法修复”。此外，“大桥的一条铁轨有轻微损坏。”克里米亚刻赤海峡大桥被炸以后，如何恢复与克里米亚半岛的交通成了头等大事。[NetEase]

"A span of the highway section of the Crimea Bridge has been destroyed beyond repair," said Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin of the Russian Federation in charge of transport. In addition, "one rail of the bridge was slightly damaged." After the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was bombed, how to restore traffic with the Crimea Peninsula became a top priority.

The Chinese source emphasizes that US satellites are obviously monitoring every move in the Russian-Ukrainian war theater almost 24 hours a day.

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克里米亚大桥17日凌晨再遭破坏，造成两人死亡、一人受伤，大桥公路路面受损。俄罗斯副总理胡斯努林18日表示，须拆除通往刻赤方向被摧毁的桥段，修复所需的材料和构件17日已经从陶里亚蒂[Толья́тти]启运。由于桥墩位于汽车车道和铁路车道之间，无法使用浮吊，需建造一座250米长的临时桥，预计这一工作将耗时2个月。初步预计，修复费用可能为10亿至13亿卢布（约合人民币8000万至1亿元）。[Sohu]

The Crimea Bridge was damaged again in the early morning of the 17th, resulting in two deaths, one injury, and damage to the road surface of the bridge. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin said on the 18th that the destroyed bridge section leading to Kerch must be dismantled, and the materials and components needed for repair have been shipped from Togliatti [former Stavropol in Samara Oblast] on the 17th. Since the pier is located between the car lane and the railway lane, floating cranes cannot be used, and a 250-meter-long temporary bridge needs to be built. This work is expected to take 2 months. It is initially estimated that the repair cost may be 1 billion to 1.3 billion rubles (about 80 million to 100 million yuan).

Belgorod - Russia - Nuclear Warheads Urgently Removed

UPDATE of May 24
included below !

According to China's Net Ease 網易 news platform on May 23, Russia should have urgently removed nuclear weapons stored at a Belgorod facility. Belgorod (Белгород) is a Russian community near the border to Ukraine where anti-Russian insurgents from Ukraine have been reportedly beaten back according to official Russian media. Russia speaks of terrorism and has allegedly captured two armoured vehicles of US origin. => Latest: US distances itself from incursion into Russia. (BBC, 5 hours ago)

乌克兰情报部门的 Andriy Yusov说： 俄罗斯人开始从俄罗斯联邦别尔哥罗德地区的一个储存设施中取出核弹头。 “甚至还有关于疏散活动的更多信息。Belgorod-22 设施是一个核弹药储存设施，正在紧急疏散；俄罗斯人也正在从 Grevoron 附近地区疏散，”他说。

Andriy Yusov from the Ukrainian intelligence service said: The Russians started removing nuclear warheads from a storage facility in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation.
"There's even more information about evacuation activities. The Belgorod-22 facility, a nuclear munitions storage facility, is being evacuated urgently; the Russians are also being evacuated from the area around Grevoron," he said.

Link: Russian military facility near Grevoron (Грайворон)

Net Ease 網易 is registered with Guangdong Communications Administration 广东省通信管理局 and marks that article as "stored by user" which seems to be the usual procedure. The user quoted seems to be an elderly person from Guangxi province and describes him/herself as a "well-known NetEase creator in the military field".

The UPDATE of May 24, 2023, offers
a brandnew article by NET Ease 網易:

乌克兰方面声称,这次突击并非由乌军发起,而是由反对普京的俄罗斯国内势力如“俄罗斯理想军”和“俄罗斯自由”组织执行的。乌克兰情报局代表安德烈·尤索夫说,别尔哥罗德地区格雷沃龙区驻扎的俄军25624部队是俄罗斯联邦战略导弹部队的一部分,它实际上是俄罗斯联邦中央核武器储存基地。尤索夫认为,别尔哥罗德最近发生的突击事件应该是反普京势力发起的。

The Ukrainian side claimed that the attack was not initiated by the Ukrainian army, but by domestic forces in Russia that oppose Putin, such as the "Russian Idealists' Army [Russian Volunteer Corps]" and the "[Russian Freedom Legion]". Andrei Yusov, representative of the Ukrainian Intelligence Service, said that the Russian Army Unit 25624 stationed in the Grevoron District of the Belgorod Region is part of the Russian Federation's Strategic Missile Forces, which is actually the Russian Federation's central nuclear weapons storage base. Yusov believes that the recent surprise attack in Belgorod should be initiated by anti-Putin forces.


A semi-official German source described
these Russian insurgent groups as follows:

There has been awareness of the Freedom of Russia Legion since at least the beginning of April 2022. It was apparently formed by captured Russian soldiers who switched over to the Ukrainian side, but also of volunteers with Russian passports.

It is made up of about 500 men, according to Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the Russian State Duma who represents the unit. He was the only Russian lawmaker to vote against the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and went into exile in 2016.

The Russian Volunteer Corps has existed since August 2022 but the number of men is not known. However, a fighter who goes by the name "Cardinal," whose military ID was presented to [the news service], said it had the same tasks as a company -- which can have 30 to 150 men.

One of the co-founders, Denis Kapustin, a businessman who is known as being part of Russia's far-right movement and uses the pseudonym Denis Nikitin, said late last year that the Russian Volunteer Corps had been working with the Ukrainian army since the fall.

On social networks, the Russian Volunteer Corps says that all its members hold right-wing conservative views. "Cardinal" sees Russia's future in a "true nation-state of Russians in the original Russian territories -- taking into account the territorial integrity of Ukraine and Belarus, as well as neighboring countries."

Ukraine Conflict - A Chess Game

Last Update on January 28, 2022

The Paper, 澎湃新闻, is a Chinese digital newspaper run by the Shanghai United Media Group and said to be ideologically connected with the Communist Party of China.

On January 27, 2022, they came with an interesting comment on the Ukrainian conflict seen as a chess game. The comment is based on a perception of Ukraine being isolated in its controversy with Russia, with no western partner willing to send troops or really effective weapons. It comes to the conclusion that Ukraine has to decide with what side to negotiate.

俄乌冲突不可能调解成功，关键之处在于俄乌怎么应对问题，比如避免战斗打响。

原因很简单，从普京拿下克里米亚的那一刻开始，就意味着乌克兰不可能亲俄，泽连斯基如果替俄罗斯说好话，结果只能是被迫下台。

在大部分乌克兰人看来，俄罗斯“吞并”了克里米亚，现在还试图控制顿巴斯，无疑是不可接受的。

泽连斯基主动喊话普京和谈，还请来了马克龙、朔尔茨等帮手，无疑是好消息，至于普京是否搭理泽连斯基，就是另外一回事了。

普京的选择是直接找美国对话，因为俄罗斯认为乌克兰是美国的棋子。

开弓没有回头箭，俄乌冲突仍然充满了变数，爆发战争的可能不是没有，是继续当美国的桥头堡，还是真心实意地与俄罗斯坐下来谈，乌克兰的确得好好想想了。

It is impossible to successfully mediate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the key lies in how Russia and Ukraine deal with problems, such as avoiding the start of fighting.

The reason is simple: from the moment Putin took Crimea, it meant that Ukraine could not be pro-Russian, and if Zelenskiy said good things for Russia, he would only be forced to step down.

In the eyes of most Ukrainians, Russia's "annexation" of Crimea and its current attempt to control Donbass is undoubtedly unacceptable.

Zelenskiy took the initiative to call out Putin for peace talks, and also invited Macron, Scholz and other helpers, which is undoubtedly good news, as to whether Putin takes care of Zelenskiy, it is another matter.

Putin's choice is to talk directly to the United States, because Russia believes that Ukraine is a pawn of the United States.

There is no turning back from the bow, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still full of variables, and the outbreak of war may not be nothing, whether to continue to be the bridgehead of the United States, or to sit down with Russia sincerely, Ukraine really has to think about it.

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[腾讯网2022年01月26日]

俄乌局势真到了一触即发的边缘吗？讲真，俄罗斯真的不想打仗，而且俄罗斯在经济上并不足以支持对乌克兰发动全面战争。就在昨天，俄罗斯股市暴跌了8.32%。

但俄罗斯没有退路，他们从地缘上必须要有一个缓冲区，不能接受让北约直接靠近边境，不能接受北约东扩。但俄罗斯也明白，如果俄乌真的爆发了战争，不但对乌克兰没什么好处，对俄罗斯也没什么好处，只能是两败俱伤，让西方火中取栗。

Is the situation in Russia and Ukraine really on the verge of erupting? To be honest, Russia really doesn't want to go to war, and Russia is not economically strong enough to support an all-out war against Ukraine. Just yesterday, the Russian stock market plunged 8.32 percent.

But Russia has no way back, they must have a buffer zone from the geopolitical point of view, can not accept NATO directly close to the border, can not accept NATO eastward expansion. But Russia also understands that if war really breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, it will not only be of no benefit to Ukraine, but also of little benefit to Russia, but it can only be a lose-lose situation and let the West take advantage of the fire.


美国每天都说狼来了，万一哪天狼真的来了呢？

Every day the US keep saying the wolf is coming.
What if the wolf really comes ?

The next day, January 27, the above quoted source reported about direct talks between Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine without the presence of a US representative:

After having temporarily excluded the US from the proceedings in Russia's direct negotiations with Ukraine and representatives from France and Germany, Russia came to terms with Ukraine on the lowest possible level of a mutual ceasefire. Soon afterwards, Russia stepped forward in the controversy about a hypothetic NATO membership of Ukraine. As Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev put it: After the ceasefire even the idea of war between Russia and Ukraine should be considered as 'unacceptable'. In order to ease tensions in the conflict, a withdrawal of NATO troops from all of Eastern Europe should therefore be the logical consequence. [Reuters news agency, Chinese edition on January 28, 2022]

Zaitsev称：“如果北约从东欧国家撤军，军事紧张局势显然会得到缓解。这正是我们所呼吁的。”

Zaitsev said: "If NATO withdraws its troops from Eastern European countries, military tensions will obviously ease." That is exactly what we are calling for. "

Ukraine Conflict - The Ideology of War

The State of Conflict
[Updates included]
Tens of thousands of Russian troops have gathered at the Ukrainian border, raising worries amongst the U.S. and its allies of a possible invasion. Russia has said it built up its military to prevent NATO expansion towards its borders and to defend Russian ethnic nationals living in the war-torn east Ukrainian region of Donbas.

US President Biden has said that Russia will have "a heavy price to pay" if it invades Ukraine.

Biden made his comment after reporters asked about his latest phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 30. During the 50-minute call, the two presidents mostly discussed de-escalation in Ukraine and U.S.-Russia diplomatic relations heading into European talks that will begin in mid-January.

Following the Biden-Putin call, a group of 24 former U.S. national security officials and Russia experts — a group that includes several officials who served in the Obama, George W. Bush and Clinton’s administrations — released a statement calling on Biden to immediately, and publicly, lay out the penalties Russia would face if Putin were to move forward with military action.

“We believe the United States should, in closest consultation with its NATO allies and with Ukraine, take immediate steps to affect the Kremlin’s cost-benefit calculations before the Russian leadership opts for further military escalation,” the group wrote. “Such a response would include a package of major and painful sanctions that would be applied immediately if Russia assaults Ukraine. Ideally, the outline of these sanctions would be communicated now to Moscow, so that the Kremlin has a clear understanding of the magnitude of the economic hit it will face.”

The Russians for their part continue to make the case that they are facing an existential threat with Ukraine.

UPDATE 04-01-2022
Russian Cyber Attacks
Ukraine has been the target of Russia’s most brazen cyber operations in recent years. Such attacks would surely accompany any land invasion launched by the roughly 175,000 Russian troops currently massed on the Ukraine border.

Cybersecurity experts are already noting an uptick in Russian cyber intrusions into Ukrainian government and civilian computer networks that could lay the groundwork for a major cyberattack. [Washington Post]

I recently learned about a cyber attack which caused a shutdown of local electricity in Ukraine. The shutdown was stopped by the aggressor only shortly before essential and long-lasting damage to the regional water supply could be caused by the freezing of idle pumping systems during the cold season. [German TV documentation]

Some Historic and Ethnic Facts
Serving Russia's War Readiness

Historic Links Between Moscow and Kiev
In the 11th century, a prince called Yaroslav the Wise united principalities lying between the Baltic and Black seas, codifying laws and forming the first political state of the eastern Slavs. Both Russia and Ukraine claim him as a forefather.

The kingdom of Yaroslav became a central part of the Russian empire during later centuries, and the axis Moscow-Kiev even served as the main line of supply for the Russian-Japanese War at the beginning of the 20th century where Russia blew most of its military and financial reserves in a colonial adventure that should provide access to coal, iron and unexpensive labour in China's eastern province of Manchuria, a region that was contested at the time between two colonial powers, Russia and Japan.

Further information is available from a brandnew Chinese article:
* 乌克兰的历史 *

The above quoted source from China and less comprehensive sources from the West are hinting at the role of national identity that is firing the Ukraine Conflict.

Ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine
As to the distribution of ethnic Russians in contested areas of Eastern Ukraine, there is an article I once published in this blog in order to prove the presence of a vast community of Russians in the Donbas region after World War II:
* Russlands Historische Wurzeln am Rand der Ukraine *
This article has been written in German as it refers to Russian literature, translated into German and distributed in occupied Eastern Germany after the end of World War II. At that time, nothing indicated that the Donbas region would become an object of dispute between independent states.

A related English language article on the 2014 referendum in the frame of Russia's occupation of Crimea can be found here:
* Ukraine - Crimean Referendum *

European Dreams of Love
Peace and Open Markets

Now that the Ukraine Conflict has become increasingly complicated and dangerous, the European Union needs to decide whether to leave it to US President Biden to negotiate a deal with Russia's Putin regarding an publicly requested - though hypothetic - NATO membership of Ukraine, or get involved to find new ways of further cooperation between the EU and Ukraine that could be tolerated by Putin. However, there is not much choice left. Wouldn't it be therefore more favourable to abandon the fundamental idea of making Ukraine an affiliate to the EU which could only lead to a direct confrontation with Russia. In case of an armed conflict which seems to become more and more real, this could freeze all relations with Russia for years.

To emphasize 'value based policies' in foreign politics might not be the best choice at the moment. Close economic relationship could be achieved sooner or later anyway, however not in opposition with existing treaties signed between Ukraine and Russia.

As I tried to show, both countries enjoy a long common history that was, as well, the history of the Russian Empire smashed in the revolution of 1917. When the subsequently founded Soviet Union failed in the 1980ies, Ukraine became independent, however not completely separated from Russia. There are still many links, economic and ethnic ones, which have their impact on Russian-Ukrainian coexistence. No wonder that Russia's leader looks with great suspicion at the expansion of the European Union, even though he might be aware that such expansion can include an unhealthy aspect for the EU itself.

Memories of the 'Great War of the Fatherland' are still present, especially in the disputed area of Donbas and Crimea. This is what should not be forgotten. When Russian troops finally prevailed over German invaders in the battle of nearby Stalingrad at the end of 1942, it was the result of different reasons and developments, and it was not the logical consequence of Russian supremacy.

And we don't want to see the Euro currency end like the German occupation forces' Karbowanez currency for Ukraine in 1942.

Well, the 20 Euro banknote for use in Ukraine is a fake ! But I hope I got it look real.
Or do you really wish to make Ukraine a part of the European Union and 'Euroland' ?

The Moral Gap in Politics

Last Update: 2nd December 2018
This blogspot includes latest news
on the Ukrainian-Russian conflict:

High five between Russia's President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman at the G20https://t.co/q0Z9qmye51 pic.twitter.com/uVC4pfggwu

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) 30. November 2018

" We are the evil guys ! "




US president Trump is ignoring CIA assessment that Saudi crown prince Bin Salman
ordered the Kashoggi killing inside the Saudi consulate general in Istanbul / Turkey.



Timeline of Novichok attack on former Russian spy Skripal at his Salisbury home (GB).
Public assessment made by official from British counter-terrorism.



Still to remember: The Litvinenko killing using radioactive Polonium.


And here we are back in the USA .....



US president Trump, Michael Cohen and the "Russia Connection"

On Thursday November 29, 2018, the US based Lawfare Blog published an evaluation of the fact that Michael Cohen, the former lawyer and fixer for Donald Trump, had admitted in court his participation in a deal between the Trump Organization and Russian authorities which up to then remained unknown. [The quoted blog is published by Lawfare Institute and which is connected with the Brookings Institute think tank in Washington DC.]

In effect, Cohen admitted in court on Thursday that even as Russian operatives were hacking Democratic emails and getting ready to dump emails through Wikileaks, even as Trump was publicly praising Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, even as the Trump Tower meeting involving Donald Trump Jr. took place in the summer of 2016, the Trump Organization—with Trump and his family very much in the know—was negotiating to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. The Trump Organization was negotiating—or, at least, trying to negotiate—this deal with the Kremlin itself. And Cohen has admitted that he lied to Congress about this history to protect Trump politically.
..........
The primary point is that this is all utterly unacceptable. That a large swath of the public, and the legislative branch, has chosen to accept it does not make it more reasonable that a man seeking to be president of the United States would at the same time publicly cozy up to a foreign dictator and negotiate with his regime over a potential business opportunity—and then cover it all up. The story is likely to get worse. As this article was about to go to publication, Anthony Cormier and Jason Leopold broke in BuzzFeed News that the Trump Organization planned to gift Vladimir Putin a penthouse suite at Trump Tower Moscow.


By the way, Israel isn't much better off .....



Headlines of Israel's daily Haaretz on 2nd December 2018.

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Latest News from Ukraine:



Al-Jazeera on November 29, 2018, quoting an interview
granted by Ukraine's president to a German newspaper.

As Ukraine's presidential elections are near, allegations are spreading that president Poroshenko is looking to boost his approval rating by using the long-standing Crimea conflict with Russia as a pretext. According to the Russian news center Sputnik, Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman for Russia's foreign ministry, stated at a briefing on November 30:
"The intention of the Kiev regime, its representatives and, of course, President Petro Poroshenko is clear. Its primary target is using a martial law for boosting approval rating, which is rapidly falling, in order to earn points riding another wave of Russiphobia".




Russia's S-400 air defence system deployed in the Russian controlled zone
of disputed Crimea in the frame of an overall military build-up by Russia.



First news about S-400 deployment from SINA on November 29, 2018.



On Saturday December 1st, 2018, Ukraine's president Poroshenko came about with figures of a Russian military build-up and which are being considered as realistic by Igor Koziy, a military expert at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation. The following information was published by Al-Jazeera the same day:

More than 80,000 Russian soldiers are present at Ukraine's borders and the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, as well as the rebel-held regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, according to the Ukrainian president.

..........

As he rallies for international support against Moscow, Poroshenko said Russia had about 1,400 artillery and rocket systems, 900 tanks, 2,300 armoured combat vehicles, more than 500 military planes and 300 helicopters in and around Ukraine.

Russia has more than 80 Russian military ships and eight submarines in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Aegean Sea, according to Poroshenko.

G7 Meeting - Tough Talks

Last Update: June 11
including news about the
upcoming talks between
Trump and Kim Jong-un.

US president Trump's recently decreed import tariffs, his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal and his position in the climate change discussion have raised much displeasure and resistance among other global leaders especially those from China, Canada and France.

His proposal to reintegrate Russia in the group of leading industrialized nations - now known as the G7 - has even more isolated him on the current meeting.

Russia was suspended from the group - then known as the G8 - in 2014 after the majority of member countries allied against Russia's annexation of Crimea, which Russia continues to hold.

Here's a news video provided by the Canadian TV station CTV and which is giving an idea of the tensions that exist between Trump and his host, the Canadian prime minister Trudeau.




The original article on the CTV website is "enriched" with tweets from "the real" Donald Trump.





At least, Trump can leave the G7 summit earlier to meet with someone of his own breed:



A reminder of the German proverbe "Pack schlägt sich; Pack verträgt sich" .....




Could have been created by the Chinese who invented Global Climate Change .....







特朗普奔赴“鸿门宴”美元将遭致命一击？
下周三大央行携两大峰会来袭！

While Trump is hurrying to a "Feast at Hong Gate", could
the US Dollar meet with its death from a single blow ?

Next Wednesday the [US] Central Bank will have to shoulder
two great summits !

Editor's Note:
In Chinese culture, the term Hong Men Yan ("Feast at Hong Gate") is used figuratively to refer to a trap or a situation ostensibly joyous but in fact treacherous. The historic event was about two rebel leaders rivalling for supremacy over China. One of them was planned to be assassinated at a "banquet of friendship".

[JinRongJie / Financial World 金融界 on June 9, 2018]




While the Western Alliance of Industrialized Nations is crumbling at the current G7 summit, the Chinese-led Central Asian Bloc is even expanding with its new members India and Pakistan, both hailed at this weekend's summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the northern Chinese port of Qingdao. Furthermore, China's leader Xi Jin-Ping presented Russian President Vladimir Putin China's first Friendship Medal at an elaborate ceremony in Beijing.

The creation of the Central Asian Bloc is a result of China's One Belt One Road Initiative. The bloc was founded in 2001 and is dominated by China and Russia and also includes Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

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Visitor to "blueprint news" coming from South Korea.