On April 1st, international media reported about 240 migrants from Syria having reached the coast of Cyprus.
On that very day, I happened to pass a giant camp for Syrian refugees in the Jordanian governorate of al-Azraq. Alongside Highway 30 and in the middle of a desert, I met with the disturbing view of an extended area covered by tents that are currently hosting some 40.000 refugees from Syria. My driver told me there was another still larger camp in Zaaria, hosting another 80.000 refugees. When checking the facts, I learned that these are indeed the official numbers for 2024 as published by UNHCR, the United Nations Refugees Organisation.
Azraq Camp is neighbouring the Syrian border which is only some 50 km away and near to the historic site of Azraq Castle. Azraq and Zaaria, however, don't host the total of Syrian refugees, as less than 20 percent of such refugees should be currently living in such camps.
Therefore, the European Union should consider themselves lucky not to be flooded by further Syrian refugees when they are now saying that 240 migrants starting on their boats from Beirut was the biggest group of refugees up to now from Syria.
Violent explosions after a drone attack rocked positions inside the province of Erbil – the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan – as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for the attack. In the details, Al-Arabiya / Al-Hadath reported on Monday [Jan. 15] that 6 explosions occurred in different areas in Erbil, northern Iraq. They also said that Iraq's Erbil airport halted air traffic after explosions rang out in the city. A security source told Al-Arabiya/Al-Hadath that the attack was carried out with long-range missiles and drones.
New U.S. Consulate Headquarters
Kurdish sources said a six-rocket attack took place at the new US consulate (under construction) in the northern suburbs of Erbil. The sources also said the rocket attack was carried out from Iran's Kermanshah province, which borders the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
Revolutionary Guards Adopt [Responsibility]
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the attack and said it had attacked "spy centers and gatherings of anti-Iran terrorist groups" in Erbil, Iraq, Iranian media reported.
This development comes a few days after the Counter-Terrorism Service in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq announced the downing of a booby-trapped drone targeting international coalition forces that are stationed near Erbil airport last Thursday evening, making up for the second attack in 24 hours. On Wednesday evening, the region's counter-terrorism service [had already] reported a similar attack, for which [pro-Iranian] armed factions in Iraq claimed responsibility.
Since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023, US military has already been subjected to about 130 attacks in Iraq and Syria through a combination of rockets and mined drones. Pentagon spokesperson Patrick Ryder previously announced that US facilities had been hit by 127 attacks since the escalation began in the region, 52 in Iraq and 75 in Syria. This prompted America to respond by striking some of the pro-Iranian armed factions in the two countries, the most important of which was the strike that targeted the headquarters of Harakat al-Nujaba east of Baghdad in early January 2024.
It is noteworthy that the United States are deploying 900 troops in Syria, and 2,500 soldiers on Iraqi soil as part of the coalition forces that provide advice and assistance to local forces in order to prevent the return of DAESH [Islamic State], which in 2014 controlled large areas of territory in both countries before its defeat.
[Lebanese Forces Official Website on Jan. 15]
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Militant anti-Iranian organization in Pakistan under attack by Iranian missiles
Meeting between Indian and Iranian Foreign Ministers during Davos Forum
According to sources such as the Global Network, Pakistan distributed a message in the early morning of the 17th, accusing Iran of launching an attack on its airspace, which caused serious consequences such as the killing of two children and the injury of three girls. The Pakistani statement warned Tehran that this could trigger "serious consequences".
Blueprint Editor's Note:
Pakistan's warning is only related to the killing of civilists by an unprecise Iranian missile attack.
In fact Iran and Pakistan are allies in their fight against "Baloch terrorists" as their common enemy.
Only two days later, another Chinese article praised the joint operation of both countries' air forces
targeting the same group in Iran on Jan. 18. The article underlines the efficiency of Iran's air force
in contrast to the faulty Iranian missile attack on terrorist strongholds in Pakistan on Jan. 17. The
whole story seems to have something of a planned deception in it .....
Iranian media mentioned that Iran used missiles and drones to strike the strongholds of the "Justice Army", and two strongholds in Balochistan province in Pakistan were destroyed. Groups claim that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps fired a large number of rockets, as well as six attack drones.
Earlier, Iran had just launched missiles against targets in Syria and Iraq, triggering a "strong warning" from the United States because the strike site was even close to the U.S. consulate facility and reportedly destroyed Israel's Mossad establishment. However, Iran behaved very tough this time, and did not forget to notify the UN Security Council after the fight, emphasizing Tehran's right to "fight terrorism" and "self-defense".
Russian media reports also show that on the 16th, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian met with Pakistani caretaker Prime Minister Kakar during the Davos forum, and it is not clear whether there was any mention of the strike incident that day. However, there is a detail that Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar also recently arrived in Tehran and met with Abdollahian, and it is said that he also agreed on projects such as long-term cooperation at the Chabahar port. Jaishankar's two-day trip means that Jaishankar may still be in Iran when Iran strikes Pakistani targets.
Iran and India met and Pakistan was hit by heavy air strikes, which happened by a bit of a coincidence. In fact, after Iran's air strikes in Syria and Iraq, China has already made its position clear. The [Chinese] Ministry of Foreign Affairs appealed to all parties to exercise restraint and not allow the situation to continue to escalate.
[腾讯网, China Mainland, on Jan. 17]
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Evaluation: The Military Situation of Hamas related Qassam Brigades in Gaza
Impact assessment of the 100-day conflict between Palestine and Israel:
Gaza’s farmland damaged and Israel’s technology industry severely hit.
The Qassam Brigades, an armed faction affiliated with Hamas, has not disclosed its organizational structure and specific number of personnel, but some analysts estimate that the number of Qassam Brigades is roughly 30,000 to 45,000. A research report released by the American think tank "Institute of War Studies" shows that the Qassam Brigade had at least 26 to 30 combat battalions in the early stages of the war, with each battalion having 400 to 1,000 soldiers. After more than three months of fighting, only three battalions were completely wiped out. Among the remaining military forces, about 4 to 5 battalions have been weakened but can still fight alone or in conjunction with other units.
Al Jazeera analyzed that although Israel relied on its excellent intelligence capabilities to kill at least five Hamas commanders from five battalions in targeted air strikes, almost all of the "decapitated" troops continued under the command of deputy commanders. The battle fully proves that Hamas still has sufficient reserves of troops in the rear.
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Robert Looney, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, also held a similar view in an article on the "World Politis Review" website, that is, Israel's agriculture, high-tech industries, tourism and construction industries have been severely affected by the war. Since the outbreak of the conflict, Israel has mobilized a total of 360,000 reservists, accounting for approximately 10% to 15% of the country's working population. As a large number of young and middle-aged workers were recruited into the army, many high-tech talents chose to immigrate due to the war. The war dealt a heavy blow to high-tech industries that help boost the economy and attract foreign investment. Robert warned that Israel should reach a peace agreement as soon as possible, citing brain drain, relocation of high-tech industries and serious labor shortages in sectors such as construction and agriculture, which may further worsen Israel's economic situation.
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It is not difficult to see that with the turmoil on the Lebanese-Israeli border and the spread of the Red Sea crisis, the risk of spillover from the Gaza war is also increasing. Shu Meng believes that as a continuation of its retaliatory activities against Hamas, the frequency of Israel's targeted strikes against senior Hamas leaders in Lebanon will definitely increase. In addition, the Houthis have taken various actions under the slogan of supporting Palestine to enhance their legitimacy and influence at home and abroad. The Red Sea security issue has become an important platform for the Houthis to use their small skills to make a big difference. “If the Palestine-Israel issue does not receive international attention and political resolution in the future, it will continue to be entangled with other regional issues, and more conflict parties will use the Palestine-Israel conflict as an excuse to enhance their influence, actions and legality." Shu Meng analyzed.
[Shu Meng is an assistant researcher at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University.]
[澎湃新闻, Chinese state-owned digital newspaper, on Jan. 16]
Gadi Eisenkot, member of Israel's war cabinet and former chief of staff for
Israeli Defense Force (IDF), is favouring a cease-fire as the only means to
free Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Interview with Israel's Channel 12 TV.
Eisenkot added that those claiming hostages can be freed through military
pressure were spreading illusions. [Times of Israel / AP on Jan. 19, 2024]
