Sandworm - Hacker Unit of Russia's Military Intelligence

On June 27, the Austrian paper 'Der Standard' published an article about Jewgeni Serebrjakow, prominent member of Russia's hacker group 'Sandworm'. Here some excerpts from the German language publication in the English and Chinese version:

In April 2018, Yevgeny Serebryakov and three other Russian agents are standing in a parking lot in The Hague, the Netherlands, with a lot of hacking equipment in his rental car. The men have a plan: they want to hack into the Wi-Fi in the nearby building of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW). At that time, the OPCW was investigating whether the Assad regime, which was allied with Russia, had used poison gas against civilians.

But before the hackers can get started, they are surrounded by Dutch agents who had been shadowing Serebryakov and his colleagues. The Dutch confiscate the equipment – cash, mobile phones, laptops – and expel the men from the country. A few months later, the Dutch company held a press conference – and presented photos of the passports used, the rental car and a bag in which the hackers collected their garbage so as not to leave fingerprints in the hotel. It is, there is hardly any other way to put it, a public demonstration of the GRU secret service. [GRU = Russia's military intelligence service]

Diplomatic passport used by Jewgeni Serebrjakow

2018年4月，叶夫根尼·谢列布里亚科夫和另外三名俄罗斯特工站在荷兰海牙的一个停车场，租来的车里有很多黑客设备。这些人有一个计划：他们想入侵禁止化学武器组织（禁化武组织）附近大楼的Wi-Fi。当时，禁化武组织正在调查与俄罗斯结盟的阿萨德政权是否对平民使用毒气。

但在黑客开始之前，他们被一直跟踪谢列布里亚科夫及其同事的荷兰特工包围。荷兰没收了设备——现金、手机、笔记本电脑——并将这些人驱逐出境。几个月后，这家荷兰公司举行了新闻发布会，并展示了所用护照、租车和黑客收集垃圾的袋子的照片，以免在酒店留下指纹。几乎没有任何其他方式可以说，这是 GRU 特勤局的公开展示。

However, the same Yevgeny Serebryakov now leads one of the most dangerous hacking groups in the world: Sandworms. That's a staggering increase, as sandworm forces play a central role in Russian military intelligence: Ukrainian hackers shut down the grid twice, albeit only for a brief time in 2015 and 2016. Sandworms also play an important role in Russia's war of aggression. In March, the US trade magazine Wired reported on the promotion, and soon after a document appeared on the Internet that was of particular interest to Western intelligence services: a certain Yevgeny Serebryakov's master's thesis on the title: "Information Confrontation in World Politics." In more than 90 pages and 77 footnotes, it explains the meaning behind the clumsy term "information confrontation": it is generally believed not only in Russia that information can be used as a weapon.

然而，同样的叶夫根尼·谢列布里亚科夫现在领导着世界上最危险的黑客组织之一：沙虫。这是一个惊人的增长，因为沙虫部队在俄罗斯军事情报部门发挥着核心作用：乌克兰的黑客两次关闭电网，尽管只是在 2015 年和 2016 年的短暂时间。沙虫在俄罗斯侵略战争中也发挥着重要作用。 3月，美国贸易杂志《连线》报道了这次推广，不久后，一份文件登陆了互联网，西方情报部门对此特别感兴趣：某叶夫根尼·谢列布里亚科夫的硕士论文，题目："世界政治中的信息对抗"。在 90 多页和 77 个脚注中，它解释了笨拙的术语"信息对抗"背后的含义：不仅在俄罗斯普遍认为信息可以用作武器。

In 2020, some Chinese language publication already mentioned the Sandworm group as being targeted by US authorities:

美联社和CNN等多家美媒报道，当地时间10月19日，美国宾夕法尼亚州西部地区地方法院对6名俄罗斯黑客发出了逮捕令，被通缉的6名黑客属于Sandworm（沙虫）黑客组织，在俄罗斯情报机构的支持下，对美国公司、乌克兰能源系统、2018年韩国冬季奥运会的组织者等进行了网络攻击，导致数千台计算机瘫痪，损失约10亿美元，美国方面相信这6名俄罗斯黑客就是NotPetya勒索软件的幕后黑手。

Associated Press, CNN and other US media reported that on October 19, local time, the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania issued arrest warrants for six Russian hackers. The six wanted hackers belonged to the Sandworm hacker organization which is backed by Russian intelligence agencies. [They had allegedly] carried out cyberattacks on U.S. companies, Ukrainian energy systems, organizers of the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, etc., paralyzing thousands of computers and costing about $1 billion. The U.S. believes the six Russian hackers are behind the NotPetya ransomware.

Leaked IT contractor files detail Kremlin's stockpile of cyber-weapons: The NTC Vulcan Files.
How the 'Washington Post' got their hands on the Vulcan files, leaked from Russia's IT giant.

Russia's Private Armies - Acting in a Legal Vacuum

然而，尽管是最高调的存在，“瓦格纳”却不是唯一在乌克兰为俄罗斯作战的私人军事公司，它的崛起也并非“独一无二的现象”。事实上，俄乌冲突导致俄罗斯其他私人军事公司急速扩张，以及众多雇佣兵团的诞生。据统计，俄罗斯已有超过30个雇佣兵团。

此前不少分析称，这些大多由俄罗斯富豪、权贵资助的兵团实质就是私人军队，其背后引发的“权力游戏”注定将在俄罗斯产生“破坏性影响”。俄媒也在24日的报道中称，“瓦格纳”从“心腹变为心腹大患”的根源，是这些私人军事公司游走在俄罗斯法律的真空地带，再加之金钱、权力等一系列纠葛。

Wagner is not the only private military company fighting for Russia in Ukraine, nor is its rise a "unique phenomenon". In fact, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to the rapid expansion of other Russian private military companies and the birth of numerous mercenary regiments. According to statistics, Russia has more than 30 mercenary regiments.

Many previous analysts said that these corps, which are mostly funded by Russia's rich and powerful, are essentially private armies, and the "power game" behind them is destined to have a "destructive impact" in Russia. In a report on the 24th, Russian media also said that the root cause of "Wagner" from "henchman to henchman" is that these private military companies wander in the vacuum of Russian law, coupled with a series of entanglements such as money and power. ...........

美国战争研究所在去年10月的一份评估报告指出，普里戈任在“俄罗斯国家结构和信息空间中占据着独特的优势地位”，这使得他比俄军高级指挥官更容易在俄罗斯“扩大自己的选区”。不仅如此，普里戈任还可以自由地“提升”自己和他的部队，同时还能“批评俄政府官员或俄武装部队，而不必担心遭到反击”。

随着“瓦格纳”快速成长为一支俄罗斯政府军主力的结盟部队，其在俄乌冲突中扮演的角色也越来越重要，最好的例证可能就是今年初的一次法律改革。今年3月，一项禁止“诋毁或审查俄武装部队”的法律范围扩大到了包括“雇佣军和志愿军”。

An assessment report by the U.S. War Research Institute in October last year pointed out that Prigozhin occupies a "uniquely advantageous position in the Russian state structure and information space", which makes him more likely than a senior Russian military commander to conduct military operations in Russia and "expand his legal frame". Not only that, but Prigozhin is also free to "promote" himself and his troops, and at the same time "criticize Russian government officials or the Russian armed forces without fear of retaliation."

As Wagner has rapidly grown into a mainstay of the Russian government's allied force, its role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has grown, perhaps best exemplified by a legal overhaul earlier this year. In March, a law prohibiting "defamation or censorship of the Russian armed forces" was expanded to include "mercenaries and volunteers". ..........

GAZPROM - Military Branch

俄最大能源巨头至少手握4支队伍。

去年11月被任命为乌克兰俄控区监狱管理员后，乌克兰亲俄商人阿尔缅·萨尔基斯扬便计划利用自己的职位，并借鉴“瓦格纳”集团的招募模式，成立一个私人军事公司。乌克兰方面声称，这家公司由俄罗斯富豪萨姆韦尔·卡拉佩提安资助。卡拉佩提安是塔希尔控股公司老板，该公司是俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的分包商。

最为关键的是，俄最大能源巨头俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（简称“俄气”）也组建了多个雇佣兵团。据报道，至少有三家与俄气公司有关联的私人军事公司一直在乌克兰境内与俄罗斯军队并肩作战，它们分别被称为“火炬”“洪流”和“堡垒”。

其中，“堡垒”是唯一一家规模和经验都与“瓦格纳”接近的。据悉，该组织已存在数年，此前为叙利亚的基础设施项目提供安全保障，最初规模很小，但在俄乌冲突爆发后一直在积极“招兵买马”。

Russia's largest energy giant holds at least 4 teams.

After being appointed as the administrator of the prison in the Russian-controlled area of Ukraine in November last year, Ukrainian pro-Russian businessman Armen Sarkisyan planned to use his position and learn from the recruitment model of the 'Wagner' group to set up a private military company. Ukraine claims the company was funded by Russian billionaire Samwell Karapetian. Karapetian is the owner of Tahir Holding, a subcontractor for Gazprom.

The most critical thing is that Russia's largest energy giant Gazprom has also formed a number of mercenary groups. At least three private military companies linked to Gazprom, known as 'Torch', 'Torrent' and 'Fortress', have been fighting alongside Russian forces inside Ukraine, according to reports.

Among them, 'Fortress' is the only company whose scale and experience are close to 'Wagner'. It is reported that the organization has existed for several years. It previously provided security for infrastructure projects in Syria. It was originally small in scale, but it has been actively "recruiting troops" after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

A similar article, dealing with the same subject, was published
the same day by some other regional news center (above).

.........................


It's about sabotage of the North Stream pipelines that should have provided Germany
with natural gas delivered by Russia's GAZPROM. After the beginning of Russia's full-
fledged attack on Ukraine, Germany froze the project and enforced the construction of
Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) terminals to ensure energy supply independent from Russia.

Russia's Prigozhin - A Warlord siding with the Emperor -Ukrainian soldiers operating behind the Russian lines

- Continuously Updated on June 24 -

Today, there are two Chinese media reports of importance, the first dealing with Prigozhin, leader of Russia's influential Wagner militia:

The conflict between the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group and the Russian army was ultimately irreconcilable. On June 23, Wagner leader Prigorzhin publicly accused Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov, saying that the two were trying to "strangle Wagner" and ordered the Russian army to attack the camp of Wagner's troops. So he wanted to "severely punish" the two of them. Subsequently, Prigorzhin, in the name of "the side of the Qing emperor"(*), wants to march into Moscow to "seek justice", and had already led troops into Rostov in southern Russia.

(*) = Chinese proverb used to depict a warlord who is allegedly still in support
of the emperor's cause while resisting the claims of the emperor's army.

Although many Russian generals came forward to appease the Wagner Group and tried to prevent Prigozhin’s actions, judging from the current situation, Prigozhin’s control over this mercenary armed force is very strong, and it is not the Russian army that can shake it off. Prigozhin also claimed that Wagner troops shot down a Russian helicopter during the expedition, implying that the "merger" had begun. In this regard, the Rostov region has issued a warning, requiring residents to stay at home, saying that law enforcement agencies would ensure the safety of locals.

The Chinese source comes to the following conclusion:
Prigozhin is being seen as a warlord who tries to bargain a deal with the Russian military in order to remain unchallenged in his position as "chief of the emperor's private army". It is worth to have a closer look, as well, on the very special relationship between Putin and Prigozhin, both sharing a similar past in St. Petersburg from where Putin rose to the commanding heights of state and Prigozhin founded a chain of exclusive gourmet restaurants, so that he became known in the public as "Putin's cook".

不过，俄罗斯已经定性普里戈任的行动是“武装叛乱”，发起了刑事立案。莫斯科所有重要机关、交通枢纽都出现了全副武装的士兵进行守卫，装甲车也现身街头，整体气氛非常紧张。
However, Russia has characterized Prigozhin's actions as an "armed rebellion" and initiated a criminal case. All important institutions and transportation hubs in Moscow were guarded by heavily armed soldiers, and armored vehicles also appeared on the streets. The overall atmosphere was described as very tense.



Armoured cars and armed soldiers in the streets of Mosccow to protect official buildings after
the conflict between Prigozhin's Wagner militia and Russia's army finally escalated last night.
- TVBS News, Taiwan -



Putin's speech targeting the Wagner Mutiny

..... 从现在的情况看，俄罗斯内部并不是钢板一块，各个武装存在很大分歧，若普里戈任的问题不迅速解决，乌克兰和北约趁机发难，俄罗斯真的会陷入“内忧外患”的局面。

..... Judging from the current situation, Russia is not a single piece of steel, and there are great differences among the various armed forces. If the Prigozhin issue is not resolved quickly and Ukraine and NATO take the opportunity to attack, Russia will really fall into a situation of "internal and external troubles".

Prigozin turned his back and directed his troops from Rostov-on-Don to the city of Voronezh,
pointing his sword at Moscow. Russian security sources are saying Wagner's army had taken
control of all military installations in the city of Voronezh, about 500 km south of Moscow.

据《莫斯科时报》24日报道，这是俄军在俄南部高速公路M4上袭击“瓦格纳”车队的视频截图

According to the "Moscow Times" and reported on the 24th, this is a video screenshot of
the Russian army's attack on the "Wagner" convoy on the southern Russian M4 highway.

After talks with Belarus president Lukashenko, Prigozhin agrees to stop his troops' advance
on Moscow to avoid bloodshed. Instead, he vows to send his troops back to their bases, after
having already been pretty close to Moscow. [Breaking News on Al-Jazeera at 07:00 PM CET]

Whatever Prigozhin accepted when he finally caved in, he lost that round in the fight for power.
More important, however, is the damage he inflicted on Vladimir Putin who just lost his nimbus
as the uncontested leader of Russia. [Common opinion of several foreign media on June 24]

Last news of the day .....

Russian law enforcement officers found 4 billion rubles (about 343 million yuan)
in a car near Prigozhin's St. Petersburg office. Prigozhin confirmed this was kind
of "daily expenses" for the Wagner group.

...............

Recent proceedings of Ukrainian units according to Prigozhin. The situation
should be very serious for Russia and even locals were allegedly shocked.

Artificial Intelligence - Who will Lose their Jobs ?

On May 24, 2023, some Chinese publication dealt with the consequences large-scale implementation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) would have on different groups of employees. However things are more complicated and far-reaching to be discussed in the frame of a single blogspot. So let me just quote some basic ideas extracted from that publication.

Within Ten Years, Two Types of People Won't be Replaced

自2月份ChatGPT发布以来，几乎每天一个重磅炸单，一会儿接入微软全家桶，一会儿对接第三方应用插件，最新的重磅是解除封印可以联网。

Since the release of ChatGPT in February, there has been a blockbuster order almost every day, connecting to the Microsoft family bucket for a while, and connecting to third-party application plug-ins for a while. The latest blockbuster is to unseal and connect to the Internet.

ChatGPT的功能很多，包括程序语言转换、故事创作、代码、头脑风暴、RE文本情绪分析、广告设计等49个。概括起来有7大应用场景：应用和布局、搜索和数据分析、程序生成和分析、文本生成、内容创作、一般推理和其他。

ChatGPT has many functions, including 49 functions in the fields of program language conversion, story creation, code, brainstorming, RE text sentiment analysis, and advertisement design. In summary, there are 7 major application scenarios: application and layout, search and data analysis, program generation and analysis, text generation, content creation, general reasoning and others.

In order to survive in the times of AI, it becomes essential to master three digital capabilities: knowledge, creation, operation on the job.
First, the ability to acquire all kinds of knowledge you never imagined before you might need.
Second, the ability to create works, including text, images, audio codes, and more.
Third, empower operational capabilities. AI can generate various processes, designs, business plans, and marketing collaboration processes. That demands you to use AI in order to make business proceedings running more smoothly in your daily routine.

任正非说，未来只有两种人，一种是熟练使用AI工具的人，另一种是可以生产AI工具的人。

Ren Zhengfei [the founder of HUAWEI] said that there will be only two types of people in the future, one is those who are proficient in using AI tools, and the other is those who can produce AI tools.

After the emergence of AI, many human positions, departments, and industries have been eliminated at once. But compared to AI, humans still have some comparative advantages in skills showing up in three fundamental abilities. From there, three categories of working positions can be described as follows :
The first category is dexterity work which requires manual precision work together with expert knowledge. Precision surgery or arts and crafts could serve as an example.
The second category is creative work. Such work cannot be fully standardized.
The third category is work that requires empathy. You might say that current machines also have empathy, such as intelligent care robots for the elderly, comfort robots, robot girlfriends, and so on. But at present, the gap between robot 'ethics' and human empathy is still very large.

这三类岗位目前是比较安枕无忧的。如果不属于这三类，只要掌握前面说的三种数字能力，或者迅速成为两种专业人士中的一种，依然可以与时俱进。

These three types of [working] positions are currently relatively safe and secure. If you do not belong to these three categories, as long as you master the three digital capabilities mentioned above, or quickly become one of the two types of professionals [mentioned by Ren Zhengfei], you can still keep pace with the times.

Defender 23 - Japan joining NATO ? - Chinese view

The question why Japan joined NATO forces in the frame of their Defender 23 drills is driving China. However, opinion from China, as it appears in the quoted article below, should be seen in the frame of Japan recently overhauling its defence strategy in the presence of an increasing danger posed by China. Here is another blogspot of mine dealing with the same subject.

再回到日本，虽然日本一直是美国的头号“走狗”，但这全是北约国家和准北约国家的联合军演，日本也要来参加，有什么目的？

从日本角度来看，参加这次军演，一方面能提高和美制军备的磨合度，一方面也能熟悉美国和 北约的作战手法，为以后做准备。其次，对日本来说，这次的军演是一个加强自身军事力量，跳出军事实力限制的圈子。对好战的日本来说，被限制发展核武器、限制军队人数、限制军舰规格简直不能忍。之前美国为了照顾东亚各国的情绪严格限制日本军事发展，现在日本在美国的战略中拥有越来越重要的地位，默许日本扩张军事实力也是美日心照不宣的事。之前的限制阻碍了日本军国主义的复苏，现在链子松了，我们也该警惕日本军国主义的反扑。

对美国来说，让日本参加这次的北约军演，可以更好的把日本绑在它反华反俄的战车上。其次就是虽然之前说了要让北约在日本建立办事处，但是被法国反对了。现在美国直接把日本拉过来联合军演，法国也不好反对。美国也能进一步加强对亚太局势的掌控。

Going back to Japan, although Japan has always been the number one "running dog" of the United States, these are all joint military exercises of NATO countries and quasi-NATO countries. Japan also wants to participate. What is the purpose?

From Japan's point of view, participating in this military exercise can improve the degree of integration with the US-made armaments on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can also familiarize itself with the combat methods of the United States and NATO to prepare for the future. Secondly, for Japan, this military exercise is a way to strengthen its own military power and jump out of the circle of military power limitations. Rules of restriction and limitation for the belligerent Japan, concerning the development of nuclear weapons, the number of troops, and the size of warships are simply unbearable. In the past, the United States strictly limited Japan's military development in order to take care of the emotions of East Asian countries. Now Japan has an increasingly important position in the United States' strategy. The previous restrictions hindered the recovery of Japanese militarism. Now that the chain is loose, we should also be vigilant against the counterattack of Japanese militarism.

For the United States, allowing Japan to participate in this NATO military exercise can better tie Japan to its anti-China and anti-Russia chariot. The second is that although it was said before that NATO would establish an office in Japan, this was opposed by France. Now the United States directly pulls Japan over for joint military exercises, and for France it's not easy to object. The United States can also further strengthen its control over the Asia-Pacific situation.

Editor's Note: It must be added that Japan takes part in the Defender 23 drills only as an observer, same as Sweden which does not yet enjoy full Nato membership. Some Nato circles, however, are favoring the foundation of a Nato office in Japan in order to coordinate common military projects and relations that are already existing. In fact, Japan has more cooperation with European and American allies than may immediately be visible. "No NATO partner is closer or more capable than Japan," Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in January on a visit to Tokyo.

Defender 23 - Nato Drills in Germany - US Voices

While the proceedings of Defender 23 Nato drills are rather smoothly going on, here are US voices from Germany where Nato operations should simulate a situation of war in an allied country. The imagined situation: Germany being already partly invaded by an unnamed enemy is trying to defend an East German port from being taken over by that enemy.

I decided to quote an article from ABC News (June 7) where US Ambassador to Germany, Amy Gutman, and the director of the U.S. Air National Guard, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, are putting things more bluntly than German sources usually would do. Here is what they are saying, together with a raw translation of their words into Chinese:

First a diplomatic view:

“This is an exercise that would be absolutely impressive to anybody who’s watching, and we don’t make anybody watch it,” U.S. Ambassador to Germany Amy Gutmann said.

“It will demonstrate beyond a shadow of a doubt the agility and the swiftness of our allied force in NATO as a first responder,” she told reporters in Berlin.

“I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance," Gutmann said.

"And that includes Mr. Putin,” she added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"对于任何正在观看的人来说，这是一项绝对令人印象深刻的演习，我们不会让任何人观看它，"美国驻德国大使艾米古特曼说（Amy Gutmann）。
...............
"毫无疑问，这将展示我们在北约盟军作为第一反应者的敏捷性和迅速性，"她在柏林告诉记者。
..............
"如果任何世界领导人没有注意到这个联盟的精神所显示的内容，这意味着这个联盟的力量，我会感到非常惊讶，"古特曼说。
.............
"这包括普京先生，"她补充说，指的是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔普京。

And here is opinion from the US military:

The director of the U.S. Air National Guard, Lt. Gen. Michael A. Loh, said the exercise goes beyond deterrence.

“It's about the readiness of our force. It’s about coordination, not just within NATO, but with our other allies and partners outside of NATO,” he said.

Loh said the exercise would be an opportunity for younger U.S. airmen, many of whom have mainly gotten experience serving in the Middle East, to build relationships with allies in Europe and prepare for a different military scenario.

“So this is about now establishing what it means to go against a great power, in a great power competition,” he said.

美国空军国民警卫队主任迈克尔·A·罗（Michael A. Loh）中将表示，这次演习超越了威慑。
...............
"这是关于我们部队的准备情况。这是关于协调，不仅在北约内部，而且与北约以外的其他盟国和伙伴，"他说。
...............
卢说，这次演习将为年轻的美国飞行员提供一个机会，其中许多人主要在中东服役，与欧洲盟国建立关系并为不同的军事场景做准备。
...............
"所以这是关于现在确定在大国竞争中对抗大国意味着什么，"他说。




June 14: German National Radio DW on the presentation of Germany's first
National Security Concept by Chancellor Scholz and four of his ministers.
德国第一件国家安全提纲（德国国家广播电台DW）

Russia's Situation in Ukraine - Chinese Evaluation

Based on the attack of Russian territory at Belgorod on June 2, some Chinese media comment, published June 10, comes to the following conclusion : It is not looking too good for Russia.
That evaluation is founded on the idea that the Belgorod incident, even though restricted to one single region, is revealing essential shortcomings of both, Russia's military forces and Russia's politics. It therefore comes to the conclusion that Russia's position should not be looked at with any optimism.

Title: Russia's Belgorod region was attacked 107 times in 24 hours.

其一：俄罗斯想彻底击败乌克兰已经遥遥无期，说是没有希望，没有可能，只怕不能说不现实。打了一年多了，不但没能取得压制性的胜利，而且自己的领土还遭到了乌方的攻击。[也就是说，自己会不会偷鸡不成反蚀一把米都已经说不清了。]

其二：俄罗斯对乌方的攻击听之任之，24小时内107次攻击。可以想象，当乌方发动攻击的时候，俄方未能给予及时的压制，只能任由乌方的炮火攻击。如此状况，实在是不容乐观。

其三：俄方边境呈严峻空虚状态。别尔哥罗德州是俄罗斯的边境城市，乌方对该州实施攻击使用的是火炮、迫击炮等。也就是说，这是一次近距离的攻击。说穿了，是与该州相邻的乌方边境城市发动的攻击。将双方边境军力进行对比，乌方24小时内107次攻击。俄方听之任之，被动挨打，可见，俄方边境军力严峻空虚。

One: Russia's desire to completely defeat Ukraine is nowhere in sight. It is said that there is no hope, no possibility. I'm afraid it cannot be said to be realistic. After fighting for more than a year, [Russia] not only failed to achieve a repressive victory, but also experienced its own territory being attacked by the Ukrainian side. [phrase based on a Chinese proverb]

Second: [Only consider that] Russian attacks on Ukraine were allowed to go unchecked, comprising 107 attacks within 24 hours. Then just imagine the Ukrainian side launching a [similar] attack and the Russian side failed to suppress it in time while the Ukrainian side was only allowed to attack with artillery fire. Such a situation is really not optimistic.

Third: The Russian border is in a severe state of emptiness. Belgorod is a border city of Russia, and the Ukrainian side used artillery and mortars to attack the [Russian] state. In other words, it was a close range attack. To put it bluntly, it was an attack launched from the Ukrainian border city adjacent to Russian territory. To compare the border forces of both sides, the Ukrainian side could make 107 attacks within 24 hours. The Russian side let them go and was beaten passively. It can be seen that Russia's military strength on the border is severely lacking.

Based on the above told facts, the Chinese commentator draws a rather gloomy picture of Russia's position in its war on Ukraine. However, this is only a single person's opinion.

Editor's opinion: Speaking of myself as somebody who already encountered different Chinese opinions regarding Putin's war on Ukraine, I came to think that such pluralistic treatment of the subject is rather unusual in an evironment lacking the total freedom of press. This should only be possible, if China's leadership had their own problems of coming to terms with Putin's war policy. And there is much at stake for China in the frame of its 'road and belt' policies in Central and Western Asia.

综合分析：关于俄乌战争，俄罗斯至少有三个没有料到。

一是没有料到竟然有那么多国家支持乌克兰，而且支持的力度越来越大。
二是没有料到泽连斯基一个戏子，还那么淘气捣蛋。
三是没有料到很友好的中国民众竟然也有那么多人反对俄罗斯发动战争。

Comprehensive analysis: Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, there are at least three things that Russia did not expect.

One is that they did not expect so many countries to support Ukraine, and the support is getting stronger and stronger.

Second, I did not expect Zelensky to be so mischievous as an actor.

Third, I did not expect so many Chinese, very friendly [towards Russia], to oppose Russia's war.

Ukraine Started its Counteroffensive

UPDATE on June 11: Chinese video link added.

According to China's CCTV news, on June 9 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his first evaluation of the Ukrainian army's counterattack in Sochi. Putin said the Ukrainian army had launched a counteroffensive and that the Ukrainian army had used its strategic reserves, but it failed to achieve any of its intended goals.

On the eve of the counter-attack [i.e. June 8], some 'military editor' from Shandong province wrote that Russia has deployed thousands of FPV suicide-drones named 'Warrior 40' at the front-line during the last days.

The 'Warrior 40' drone seeems to be a modified civilian four-axis drone being able to drop a bomb. It has a flight distance of about 12 kilometers, a battery life of 35 minutes, and can carry 2.5 kilograms of ammunition. In terms of weight alone, it is heavier than a 60 mm mortar shell. From the perspective of charge, the charge of the Warrior 40's high-explosive warhead is estimated to be at least 2 kg, which is heavier than that of some 80 mm mortar shells. But in general, its power should be equivalent to an 80 mm mortar shell.

Above: Russian 'Warrior 40' drones approaching their targets. Below: Similar war drones deployed by the Ukrainian army.

Chinese news site that has a video about Ukrainian drone attacks
targeting a Russian airfield and mastering Russia's air defence.
The attacks are marking the beginning of Ukraine's counterattack.

Shangri-la Dialogue - China Clarifying Its Position

The IISS Shangri-la Dialogue is Asia's premier defence summit. It’s a unique meeting where ministers debate the region’s most pressing security challenges, engage in important bilateral talks and come up with fresh approaches together. The 2023 event took place in Singapore on 2–4 June. Here is a brandnew report from the meeting by China's People's Daily 人民日报 :

《人民日报》2023年6月5日 - 昨天6月4日,国务委员兼国防部长李尚福在第二十届香格里拉对话会上就“中国的新安全倡议”议题作大会发言。

People's Daily, June 5, 2023 – Yesterday, June 4, State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu delivered a speech at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue on the topic of "China's New Security Initiative".

李尚福强调，台湾是中国的台湾，怎么解决台湾问题是中国人自己的事，不容任何外部势力插手干涉。民进党[台湾的民主進步黨]当局“挟洋谋独”、外部势力“以台制华”，是改变台海现状的最大麻烦制造者。如果有人胆敢把台湾从中国分裂出去，中国军队不会有丝毫迟疑，不畏惧任何对手，不管付出多大代价，都将坚决维护国家主权和领土完整。

Li Shangfu stressed: Taiwan is China's Taiwan, and how to resolve the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people's own affair, and no outside forces should be allowed to interfere. The DPP [i.e. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party] authorities' "coercion of foreigners to seek independence" and external forces "using Taiwan to contain China" are the biggest troublemakers in changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will not hesitate in the slightest, will not be afraid of any opponent, and will resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity no matter what the cost.

This comes shortly after a new incident in the Taiwan Strait when a US navy ship was blocked by some Chinese warship and which led to a dangerous encounter between both vessels.



After the incident, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin surprisingly approached China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the Shangri-la meeting and shook hands with him. However, there was no subsequent discussion of the naval incident between both sides.

Photo going viral on WeiBo !

BRICS Alliance - State of the Art - Further Development

To begin with the essential facts. Here is what everybody should know about the BRICS Alliance :

The BRICS countries are a cooperation mechanism composed of China, Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa. These five countries have 25.24% of the global GDP, 42% of the foreign exchange reserves, 26.46% of the total territory, and nearly 42% of the population. One of their projected purposes is to replace the incumbent US$ currency standard by an adequate alternative, thus reducing economic dependencies of developing nations from the USA. While Russia is being occupied with waging war on Ukraine and struggling with Western sanctions, China seems to be the true global power behind BRICS and which is pulling the strings by now.

As the BRICS countries begin to play an increasingly important role on the international stage, capacity expansion has become a hot topic among the five BRICS countries. According to South African officials, currently 13 countries have formally submitted applications for membership, and 6 countries have informally expressed their intention to join. That process of expansion, however, is going to be tedious and time-consuming.

Here is what Tencent Network 腾讯网 wrote today (June 3) about expected development and basic intentions of the BRICS Alliance, as seen from a Chinese point of view :

面对金砖国家的快速发展，一些国家开始慌了神。据日本《每日新闻》报道，19个国家排队加入金砖国家，金砖国家将吸纳越来越多的发展中国家加入，并逐步取得与七国集团（G7）抗衡的实力。

日媒哀叹称，对于发达国家而言，金砖国家未来可能成为一个“难以对付的存在”。印度尼西亚、埃及、土耳其等国家曾在前不久受邀参加广岛G7峰会，但它们现在都有意成为金砖国家中的一员。

Faced with the rapid development of the BRICS countries, some countries began to panic. According to Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun", 19 countries line up to join the BRICS countries. The BRICS countries will absorb more and more developing countries to join, and gradually gain the strength to compete with the Group of Seven (G7).

Japanese media lamented that for developed countries, the BRICS countries may become a "difficult existence" in the future. Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey and other countries were invited to participate in the Hiroshima G7 summit not long ago, but now they all intend to become a member of the BRICS.

阿联酋、尼日利亚、沙特阿拉伯、伊朗等产油国也申请加入金砖国家，这意味着金砖国家将掌握全球过半的天然气和石油。金砖机制将在全球能源领域中扮演越来越重要的角色。

并且，金砖国家将可能会吸纳众多被西方世界边缘化的亚非拉国家。巴西一直想让南美洲国家加入金砖，巴西总统卢拉在前几日会见了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，明确表示将支持委内瑞拉成为金砖的一员。

除此之外，巴西还把南美洲第二大国家阿根廷视为“战略邻国”，力推其加入金砖。如果阿根廷等南美洲国家都成为金砖国家的成员国，该地区的其它国家也都会萌生出加入金砖的想法。

The United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other oil-producing countries have also applied to join the BRICS countries, which means that the BRICS countries will control more than half of the world's natural gas and oil. The BRICS mechanism will play an increasingly important role in the global energy sector.

Moreover, the BRICS countries will likely absorb many Asian, African and Latin American countries that have been marginalized by the Western world. Brazil has always wanted South American countries to join the BRICS. Brazilian President Lula met with Venezuelan President Maduro a few days ago and made it clear that he would support Venezuela in becoming a member of the BRICS.

In addition, Brazil regards Argentina, the second largest country in South America, as a "strategic neighbor" and pushes it to join the BRICS. If Argentina and other South American countries become members of the BRICS, other countries in the region will also have the idea of joining the BRICS.

India - A Swaggering Candidate ....

India seems to have some difficulties with BRICS expansion. It fears a loss of importance in the presence of other developing nations owing a similar potential.

彭博社报道称，印度希望就金砖扩员流程达成协议，以此获得中国及其盟友不会将印度“排挤”至次要地位的保证。

事实上，我国一向寻求与他国展开务实合作，从未排挤过哪个国家。但如果印度在金砖机制中只会拖延决策的形成，干扰他国的合作，越来越多的国家将会主动把印度晾在一边。

Bloomberg reported that India hopes to reach an agreement on the BRICS expansion process, so as to obtain assurances that China and its allies will not "squeeze" India to a secondary position.

In fact, our country [i.e. China] has always sought to carry out practical cooperation with other countries, and has never excluded any country. However, if India will only delay the formation of decision-making in the BRICS mechanism and interfere with the cooperation of other countries, more and more countries will take the initiative to put India aside.

US Decay Led to the Rise of BRICS

Instead of naming it a confrontation between the West and BRICS, the Chinese source is stressing that BRICS came into being as an alternative for nations on the rise to a Western dominated alliance, already weakened by US decay.

美国媒体则从金砖国家的发展壮大中看到了美国在走下坡路，一些美国媒体认为，既然有这么多的国家希望加入到金砖机制之中，那么这可能反映了当前国际格局的一种趋势，新兴的经济力量正在对原有的经济力量发起“挑战”。

盖洛普咨询公司（Gallup）发布的报告所显示，美国的国际领导地位正在减弱，中国已经在多个方面上超过了美国。而且从长期趋势上看，世界不再信任美国，也不指望美国可以通过改变自身形象来重新博取他国的信任。

在这种大环境下，很多国家开始通过加入到类似金砖机制等的合作组织来寻找更广泛的资源、市场以及全球治理方案。因此，金砖五国能够通过扩员来增强地区和全球治理的领导权。

The American media saw the decline of the United States from the development and growth of the BRICS countries. Some American media believe that since so many countries want to join the BRICS mechanism, this may reflect a trend in the current international situation. Emerging economic forces are launching a "challenge" to the original economic forces.

According to a report released by Gallup, the international leadership of the United States is weakening, and China has surpassed the United States in many aspects. Moreover, from a long-term perspective, the world no longer trusts the United States, and does not expect the United States to regain the trust of other countries by changing its own image.

In this general environment, many countries have begun to seek broader resources, markets, and global governance solutions by joining cooperative organizations such as the BRICS mechanism. Therefore, the BRICS can strengthen leadership in regional and global governance through expansion.

Editor's Comment

US decay partly enabled the unprecedented economic and political rise of China, as well as Russia's imperialism in its regions of interest. In addition, US politics, namely under president Trump, fostered a dangerous development in Iran and North Korea. As a result, even long-standing partners in Europe are showing their disappointment of what is happening in the States now.

Seeing itself at the center of a democratic alliance, at times referred to as the "Community of Democracies" or a "Concert of Democracies", US leaders forgot the necessity to attract other countries by alternatives rather than exclude them by sanctions.

National interests, not ideology, should therefore be the guiding compass for US policy. Some US source I recently encountered put it like this: Instead of simply relying on an alliance of hand-picked democracies, there should be a coalition of open and resilient economies (CORE).

Looking at BRICS that's just what China and Russia have in mind as far as it concerns the unhampered economic development of BRICS member countries. The BRICS concept, however, wilfully excludes all those aspects related to democratic development and human rights. This could become the critical point of decision for developing nations as soon as Western alliances were able to realize the CORE concept. - Ulysses -