Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Al-Qaeda - New Strategy and Local Strength


- Last Update Inserted on September 29 -


Yesterday, September 17, the English language service of Al-Jazeera TV came with an article on new guidelines for jihad given by Ayman al-Zawahiri, the actual leader of Al-Qaeda organization. That article can be downloaded from the above link as a PDF file (about 200 kB). It reveals the new strategy of al-Zawahiri's organization and is dedicated to his followers on the anniversary of September 11.



[Source: Al-Jazeera TV الجزيرة on September 17, 2013]


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Inserted Update for September 20 / 21:


Today we learn about Al-Qaeda acting on the Syrian battlefield:




سوريا.. تواصل التناحر ببلدة اعزاز والمعارضة تدين القاعدة

Headline:
Syria ... Mutual killing continues in the community of Al-Azaaz, and Al-Qaeda is to blame for the confrontation.

وكان مسلحون متطرفون قد اقتحموا أعزاز على بعد 5 كيلومترات من الحدود السورية التركية وقتلوا 5 على الأقل من أفراد "الجيش الحر"، واحتجزوا نحو 100 شخص.ـ

Armed extremists attacked [the town of] Al-Azaaz from a distance of five kilometer from the Syrian-Turkish border, killed at least five [members] of the "Free Army" and took about 100 persons hostage.


[Source: Al-Alam TV قناة العالم on September 20, 2013. Al-Alam is an Iranian TV station broadcasting in Arabic.]



معارك عنيفة بين الجماعات المسلحة في اعزاز السزرية

Fierce battles between armed groups in the Syrian [town of] Al-Azaz.
[The above photo is showing Al-Qaeda warriors presenting their flag.]




الحرب في سوريا: "القاعدة" تسيطر على بلدة أعزاز الأستراتيجية بعد قتال شرس ضد الجيش الحر

The War in Syria:
Al-Qaeda tracing [a demarcation line] in the strategic [important] community of Al-Azaaz after cruel [behaviour] against the Free Army.


[Source: BBC Arabic بي بي سي العربية, London, on September 18, 2013]


According to CNN (September 20) the attacking force of Al-Azaaz should belong to an Al-Qaeda related organization named the "Islamic State of Iraq and Syria" (ISIS). On September 23 / 24, CNN published the following justification given by ISS for their driving out of moderate rebel fighters from the border town of Al-Azaaz. First time, by the way, I encountered the expression "pro-democracy traitors".




The border checkpoint near Al-Azaaz which is being used for
sending international and U.S. help to Syrian victims of war.


While one Al-Qaeda group is fiercely fighting in the Aleppo region against their former allies from the "Free Syrian Army" (FSA), a quite different development can be observed in neighboring Ar-Raqqah province.

In Ar-Raqqah another Al-Qaeda related organization, the "Al-Nusra Front", has come into the focus of news media. As the English language channel of Al-Jazeera reported on September 21, a "Free Syrian Army" (FSA) brigade with hundreds of fighters had joined the Al-Nusra Front in a move considered as a huge blow to moderate rebel forces.




ـ"الشين بيت" يحذر من انضمام فلسطينيين الى القاعدة

Headline: "Shin Bet" [predicts] an integration of Palestinians into Al-Qaeda.

خاصة- حذر تقرير استخباري اسرائيلي لـ "الشين بيت" من انضمام فلسطينيين من داخل مناطق 48 إلى القاعدة في سوريا، حيث من الممكن أن يستخدموا المعرفة التي حصلوا عليها ضد اسرائيل، حسب وصف التقرير.ـ

Ghaza - An intelligence report from Israel's [home security agency] Shin Bet is warning of the recruitment of 48 Palestinians from the [region] for Al-Qaeda in Syria. It is therefore possible that they might use the knowlege they had obtained opposing Israel, according to what the report is indicating.

وذكرت صحيفة يديعوت احرونوت أن الخطر الثاني الذي تفرضه مشاركتهم يتمثل في نقل المعلومات الاستخبارية عن اسرائيل الى عناصر الجهاد العالمي.ـ

The [Israeli] journal Yedioth Ahronoth reminded of another danger which is being imposed by their cooperation and which appears in secret intelligence reports [on the Israeli side] about elements of global jihad.


[Source: Al-Quds / Jerusalem القدس, Palestinian daily (old title: The Arabic Jerusalem), on September 21, 2013]

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September 18: A Jordanian specialist for Islamic communities presents his personal evaluation of Al-Qaeda's military and moral strength:



الباحث يطلق دراسة تشخص اتجاهات المجموعات و الفصائل المسلحة في سورية

Headline:
The investigator launches a study on the [identification] of tendencies [within] groups and armed units in Syria.

أبو رمان: "القاعدة" الفصيل الأقوى في سورية

Headline:
Abu Ramaan: "Al-Qaeda" is the strongest unit in Syria.

اعتبر الباحث المتخصص في شؤون الجماعات الإسلامية الدكتور محمد أبو رمان أن "تنظيم القاعدة" بات هو الفصيل المسلح الأقوى على الساحة السورية في الوقت الراهن

Dr. Mohammad Abu Ramaan, special investigator for matters [concerning] Islamic communities, considered "Al-Qaeda organization" as the strongest armed unit on the Syrian [battle]field for the moment.


[Source: Al-Ghad / Tomorrow الغد, Amman / Jordan, on September 18, 2013]

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Alleged plannings of Al-Qaeda operations in Syria were revealed by Lebanese media on September 13:

معارض سوري: مسلحو «القاعدة» قد يفجرون سدي الفرات والبعث

Syrian Opposition:
Armed [elements of] Al-Qaeda could blow up [an artificial] barrier of [river] Euphrat and [Sid] Al-Baeth (*).


(*) Sid Al-Baeth is an artificial barrier of river Euphrat at Ar-Raqqah township in the Syrian district of Ar-Raqqah سد البعث في محافظة الرقة which is bordering Turkey. Damage to the barrier itself or the river control system of a neighboring tributary could result in extensive flooding of the area.



The director of the bureau of information at "the organization for the national coordination of powers for a democratic change in Syria" disclosed that the opposition warned [residential employees] to receive instructions [about notifying on existing elements from] the "Islamic Nation of Iraq and Syria" (Daaesch) and the "Al-Nusra front", [all those] related to "Al-Qaeda" and preparing the detonation of an [artificial] Euphrat barrier and [that of] Al-Baeth on river Euphrat near the town of Ar-Raqqah in Northern Syria.

كشف رئيس المكتب الإعلامي لـ«هيئة التنسيق الوطنية لقوى التغيير الديموقراطي السورية» المعارضة منذر خدام عن تلقيه معلومات تفيد بقيام تنظيمي «الدولة الإسلامية في العراق والشام» (داعش) و«جبهة النصرة»، المرتبطين بتنظيم «القاعدة»، بالتحضير لتفجير سدّي الفرات والبعث على نهر الفرات قرب مدينة الرقة شمال سوريا، محذراً من وقوع «كارثة إنسانية لم يشهدها العالم من قبل» في حال تنفيذ التفجير.وقال خدام، في اتصال هاتفي مع «السفير»، «وردتني معلومات من صحافي في منطقة خاضعة لسيطرة هذين التنظيمين (داعش والنصرة) أخبرني أنه يملك معلومات عن تحضيرات لتفجير السدين (الفرات والبعث)، فقمت بإرسال هذه المعلومات الى هيئة التنسيق لدراستها، كما قمت بنشر خبر تحذيري عبر صفحتي الشخصية على موقع التواصل الاجتماعي (فايسبوك)».وأوضح رئيس المكتب الإعلامي لهيئة التنسيق أن كل ما يملكه هو مجرد معلومات «تحتاج لدراسة، إذ لا يمكن لجماعات إرهابية أن تفجر السدين ببساطة، إلا أن ذلك لا يعني إهمال هذه المعلومات وعدم متابعتها»، مشيراً في الوقت ذاته إلى أنه إذا تم تنفيذ هذا التفجير فإن «الآثار ستكون كارثية على سوريا، وحتى على العراق».وتأتي تصريحات خدام، بعد أيام من تناقل ناشطين معارضين خبراً حول إقدام طوافات عسكرية سورية بقصف محيط سد الفرات بالبراميل المتفجرة، وهو ما نفته وكالة الأنباء السورية (سانا)، والتي اعتبرت أن نشر الخبر جاء «لتغطية أي عمل إرهابي للمجموعات المسلحة هناك».وسيطرت جماعات مسلحة، أبرزها «النصرة» و«الدولة الإسلامية»، في شباط الماضي، على منشأة سد الفرات، التي تبعد 55 كيلومترا عن مدينة الرقة، الخاضعة أيضاً لسيطرة المسلحين. ويعد سد الفرات الأكبر في سوريا، وهو بطول 4.5 كيلومترات، وارتفاع 60 مترا، ويحجز خلفه بحيرة الأسد التي تصل مساحتها إلى نحو 640 كيلومترا مربعا، تسهم في ري مشاريع زراعية كبيرة في المنطقة الشرقية. كما يولد السد نحو 880 ميغاواط من الكهرباء يومياً. أما سد البعث فهو سد تنظيمي، ويبعد نحو 30 كيلومترا عن سد الفرات.ـ



[Source: Al-Manar المنار on September 13, 2013. This is Hezbollah TV in Lebanon quoting an article from As-Safir Newspaper جريدة السفير, Beirut. The article seems to be based on information received from employees of the public services in Syria.]


Inserted Update for September 29:


Further plannings of Al-Qaeda organization were quoted by a nationwide Chinese news service on September 26. Here are some excerpts from the original text:


U.S. drone at daybreak.


机密情报曝光:基地组织欲反制无人机

Classified intelligence exposed:
Al-Qaeda going to [or: willing to] reverse control of unmanned aircraft.

过去十年间,美国军方和情报机构策划的无人机空袭,导致约3000人死亡。……在巴基斯坦、阿富汗、也门、索马里等地的行动大大受限。同时,无人机攻击造成了大量的平民死伤,……

During a period of ten years, air raids using unmanned aircraft had been planned by U.S. military and the intelligence apparatus, resulting in a death toll of about 3.000 people. .....
In Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia [these] operations have extensively gone to their limit. In the same time, unmanned aircraft attacks caused a great toll of dead and wounded among the common people. .....

美国政府掌握的情报显示,基地组织领导层已要求运用技术手段,想方设法击落、…… 2010年以来,反美势力的反无人机战术的确在迅猛发展。

As intelligence grasped by the U.S. government is showing, the command of Al-Qaeda organization then needed to look for technical measures that could be applied, and everything possible was tried to shoot down [such U.S. drones] .....
Since 2010, there is indeed some swift and violent development of anti-drone war technique [applied] by anti-American forces.

同年[2010],土耳其当局逮捕了一名基地组织成员,这名23岁的数学专业高校生被分配到的任务之一,就是设法解析无人机的攻击模式。

In the same year [2010], Turkish authorities arrested a member of Al-Qaeda organization. That 23 year old high-school student, specialized in mathematics, was assigned to some kind of mission [which consisted in] finding out a way to analyze the pattern of attack of unmanned aircraft.

2011年1月,在被无人机“重点关照”的巴基斯坦北瓦济里斯坦地区,美国国防情报局侦测到异常电子信号,认为此系“首度发现恐怖分子对GPS干扰能力进行测试”。不过,此举并不能对军用GPS频率或加密通信链路构成威胁。从种种迹象看,发送不明信号者似乎想当然地以为,只要干扰了地面GPS接收机,就会影响无人机瞄准固定目标的能力。

In January 2011 and in the Northern Waziristan region of Pakistan which is a "focal point" for observation by unmanned aircraft, the U.S. national defence intelligence office detected an unusual electronic signal. They considered this [signal] to be related to a " discovery of terrorists by head measuring [using] a GPS interference capacity measuring test ". This [signal], however, could not arise from some military used GPS frequency or some [linked pathway] for secret communications that would impose any threat. [According to] all sorts of indications observed, a transmission of unclear signals can seemingly be taken into consideration. It only needs interference with some [surface] GPS receiver to be able to influence the ability of an unmanned aircraft [that is] aiming at a fixed target.

美国陆军情报部门也发现,恐怖分子正开发激光探测器等项目—每当无人机打算发射激光制导导弹,这种探测器就可以发出警报。

The U.S. army intelligence department discovered as well that terrorists are exploiting laser detectors whenever unmanned aircraft intend to launch laser guided missiles.

国防情报局当下的结论是:“基地组织下属的技术研发部门仍然缺乏成功整合和部署打击无人机系统的技术知识。”然而,对恐怖分子效忠的工程师们一旦“克服重大设计挑战,这类系统可能会给美国在阿富汗和巴基斯坦的活动造成巨大破坏。”

The national defence intelligence office immediately came to the following conclusion: " The group for technical [studies and development] subordinate to Al-Qaeda organization still lacks success in conformity and deployment when it comes to the technical know-how of hitting the unmanned aircraft system. " However, [if] engineers devoted to [the matter of] the terrorists once " overcame the significant challenges of planning, that [weapon] system could probably create huge damage to U.S. activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan. "


[Source: He Xun / Harmonious Message 和讯 on September 26, 2013. With its main office in Beijing, He Xun News Network is present as well in other regions of PR China.]

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Inserted Update for September 27 / 28:


As to the internal communications of Al-Qaeda, the U.S. daily Washington Times published an article on September 27 that reported al-Qaeda's recent use of social media:

Al Qaeda opens first official Twitter account


An official al-Qaeda website that is restricted to members of the terrorist group opened its first Twitter account this week in what U.S. officials say is an effort to resolve a major split over Syria’s Islamist rebels.

The Shamukh al-Islam website, used as an official clearing house for al-Qaeda members to communicate and issue propaganda statements, started its first Twitter account on Tuesday.

The first posts on the account focused on divisions between two al-Qaeda rebel groups in Syria, al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).


[Source: Washington Times on September 27, 2013]




On September 28, the Egyptian daily Al-Mogaz الموجز quoted the Washington Times article as follows:

واشنطن تايمز: القاعدة تنشئ أول حساب على تويتر

Washington Times: Al-Qaeda creates its first Twitter account.

وأصدر الحساب 29 تويتة جذبت 1532 تابعا بحلول ظهر الجمعة.ـ

On the account there have been published 29 tweets attracting 1532 followers as of Friday noon.



Logo of Shamukh al-Islam


[Source: Al-Mogaz الموجز, Cairo, on September 28, 2013]






Please Note:
The above visitor from Pakistan seems to have used an unspecific national internet access point and can therefore be regarded as "not fully localized". His/her IP No. could then be of only limited use when it comes to undertake an identification of his/her position. In fact, the above used IP address has a report of being inactive during the last nine weeks and is marked as "toxic". A rather cryptic ISP is obviously referring to some Pakistani internet provider and who is operating similar IPs.
Furthermore, the Nokia handy used doesn't belong to the latest generation. There's only one other visitor to "blueprint news" who is using such kind of device for sporadic visits from Nigeria.

However, the Pakistani visitor has offered us an interesting view on his country and neighbouring Afghanistan. It is showing all those places that are related to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda: Kabul, Kandahar in Afghanistan, the tribal area of Quetta, as well as Jalalabad and even Abottabad.

Five days later, another visitor interested in Al-Qaeda came from an administrative district of Islamabad and only a few steps away from Pakistan's Nuclear Regulatory Authority:






Choice of visitors to "blueprint news" on September 15/16, 2013, and who could be located by a country tag in their web address:







Ragtime on an Earth-Like Planet ...



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