Niger - The Russian Aspect of the Coup

UPDATE included on August 4.

Yesterday, July 30, the Arabic news center El-AIN العين from the Emirates stressed the pro-Russian aspect of mass demonstrations directed against France, Niger's former colonial power. They are asking the following question:

انقلاب النيجر.. هل مخطط من "فاغنر" للإطاحة بفرنسا؟
The Niger Coup - What is the Wagner [group's] plan to subdue France ?

متظاهرون أمام السفارة الفرنسية بنيامي

وحاول بعض المتظاهرين اقتحام مبنى السفارة بينما انتزع آخرون اللوحة التي تحمل عبارة "سفارة فرنسا في النيجر" وداسوا عليها ووضعوا مكانها علمي روسيا والنيجر وسط هتافات "تحيا روسيا" و"لتسقط فرنسا".

وكانت "رابطة الضباط من أجل الأمن الدولي" التي تعتبرها الولايات المتحدة واجهة لمجموعة فاغنر في جمهورية أفريقيا الوسطى، بثت تسجيلاً صوتياً نسبته لزعيمها يفغيني بريغوجين مساء الخميس، يؤكد فيه أن محاولة الانقلاب في النيجر "كفاح ضد المستعمرين".

ويمكن التعرّف من خلال المقطع المنشور على تطبيق تليغرام على صوت بريغوجين ونبرته، لكن لم يتمكن مراسلو وكالة فرانس برس من التأكد من صحة التسجيل تمامًا. ومنذ 26 يونيو/حزيران الماضي بعد محاولة تمرده الفاشلة في روسيا لم يصدر رئيس فاغنر أي إعلان رسمي على حسابات منظمته.

Demonstrations in front of the French Embassy in Niamey

Some of the demonstrators tried to storm the embassy building, while others grabbed the plaque bearing the phrase "France's Embassy in Niger" and trampled on it, placing the flags of Russia and Niger in its place, amid chants of "Long live Russia" and "Down with France."

The "Association of Officers for International Security," which the United States considers a front for the Wagner Group in the Central African Republic, broadcast an audio recording attributed to its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Thursday evening, confirming that the coup attempt in Niger is "a struggle against the colonialists."

Prigozhin's voice and tone can be identified from the clip posted on Telegram, but AFP reporters were unable to verify the authenticity of the recording. Since last June 26, after his failed rebellion attempt in Russia, Wagner's president has not made any official announcement on his organization's accounts.

My UPDATE on August 4 is quoting an earlier article about Wagner chief Prigozhin, deliberating on the Niger coup and the fight against colonialism. It was published by the Saudi government near paper Al-Shark Al-Awsad (The Middle-East) الشرق الأوسط two days before, on July 28.

Russia Strikes Grain Port on Border to NATO Member

Russia’s surgical strike on the Moldovan-Romanian-Ukrainian Tri-Border on July 24 damaged Ukraine's grain port of Reni [Рени] on river Danube, - only within a stone's throw away from NATO territory. The West remained silent.

Russian forces targeting Ukraine's grain port of Reni [Рени]
right on the Danube river border to NATO member Romania.




Another video of Ukrainian military origin, hosted on a pro-Ukrainian twitter account and showing the moment of attack on Reni port more directly, couldn't be linked to this site for technical reasons. It is quoted by europereloaded on some military analysis website, dated July 25.

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The Consequences: Rising Prices for Grain and Fertilizer

The below quoted information comes from Phenix Net and refers to (official) information from Beijing.

On July 25, Russia launched an air strike on Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine further escalated. And just the day before, Russia bombed the port of Reni on the Danube River in Ukraine, near the Romanian border, causing irreversible damage to the port and making it impossible to continue to use it. This port was once used by Ukraine as the last port for grain export after the black sea grain export agreement was interrupted. an alternate channel. In addition to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine’s shipping ports were completely blocked, and its grain exports through land transport and inland rivers were also boycotted by five neighboring countries. Ukrainian food is also difficult to export. Ukraine is a major grain producer and exporter in the world. Affected by the further intensification of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, the global prices of major grain futures such as wheat, corn, and soybeans have risen to varying degrees. On July 24, the Bloomberg Grain Sub-Index rose 5.02%. CBOT (*) corn futures rose 6.45%; wheat futures rose 8.6%; soybean futures rose 1.68%. Industry insiders said that with the sharp rise in international grain prices again, the prices of the three major fertilizers, nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, which are necessary for grain cultivation, may be further affected and are expected to stabilize and rise. Among them, due to the higher concentration and stronger monopoly of global potassium resources, and being at the core of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it affects SINOTRANS (*) in Russia and Belarus, the main suppliers of potassium fertilizers. This event has a more positive impact on potassium fertilizer prices. In addition, one of the most direct results is that farmers in some countries will profitably sell futures to lock in grain sales prices, ensuring the planting area and increasing the demand for potassium fertilizers, which will also support the continuous rise in potassium fertilizer prices.

* SINOTRANS: Sinotrans Ltd. is a logistics enterprise under China Merchants Group and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 中國外運股份有限公司（简称“中国外运”）是招商局集团下属的物流企业，在上交所和港交所挂牌上市。

* CBOT: The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is a designated contract market offering products subject to CBOT rules and regulations.

While the above text is quoting CBOT, here are latest market prices from another source, published by Easy Net on July 26:

The impact of rising food prices on Africa's population as a result of Russia obstructing any grain export from Ukraine, became a subject of discussion on the 2nd Russian-African Summit in Saint Petersburg in July 2023. On July 28 Al-Jazeera therefore dealt with the subject in the following evaluation.

اعتماد غالبية الدول الأفريقية على واردات القمح الروسي والأوكراني؛ فعلى سبيل المثال يعتمد الصومال وبنين اعتمادا كاملا على البلدين، في حين تستورد مصر ما يزيد على 80% من احتياجاتها منهما، تليها السودان بـ75% ثم الكونغو 69% والسنغال 66%، وفق تقارير.

The majority of African countries rely on imports of Russian and Ukrainian wheat; for example, Somalia and Benin are completely dependent on the two countries. Egypt imports more than 80% of its needs, followed by Sudan with 75%, Congo with 69% and Senegal with 66%, according to reports.

UNO - China Calls on "Fellow Traveler" Russia to Comply

News Report from India TV: In a session of the United Nations Security Council, China showed its support for an international call on Russia to enable further grain exports from Ukraine.

By the way, it should be added that India belongs to the countries unwilling to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

China's deputy UN ambassador Geng Shuang said that he hoped Russia and the UN would work together to resume grain exports from both countries at "an early date" for maintaining international food security and alleviating the food crisis in developing countries.

This is the mildest form of protest China is willing to express in order to critisize its long-standing partner Russia.

On the same day, the Chinese news center NetEase published an article that clarifies China's strategy in its fight for supremacy against the West. As usual, NetEase marked that article as kind of 'personal opinion' and denies any responsibility.

而俄乌战争，就给我们制造了一个良机。被制裁的俄罗斯，和我们的关系也越来越好，原油天然气等便宜出售给我们，双方谈成了好几笔大单子。

大量的资源输入我国，也造福了我们人民。俄乌战争开战一年多，我们的汽油价格基本稳定，而反观欧洲地区，汽油价格飙升，各项生活成本也迅速增加，社会随之变得动荡不安。

The Russo-Ukraine war created a good opportunity for us. Russia, which has been sanctioned, has a better and better relationship with us. Crude oil and natural gas are sold to us cheaply, and the two sides have negotiated several big deals.

A large amount of resources have been imported into our country, which has also benefited our people. The Russo-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than a year, and our gasoline prices are basically stable. In contrast, in Europe, gasoline prices have soared, various living costs have also increased rapidly, and society has become turbulent.

..........

为了遏制俄罗斯，美国被迫放松对我国的遏制，给我们经济恢复创造良机。因此，对于我们来说，俄罗斯，是不能输的，他的战败并不符合我国的利益。

In order to contain Russia, the United States is forced to relax its containment of our country, creating a good opportunity for our economic recovery. Therefore, for us, Russia cannot lose, and its defeat is not in the interests of our country.

____________________________________

In order to understand different strategic positions of China and India in comparison with those of rich Western countries, the global development of industrial production might be a key factor, as economic aspects have always driven geopolitical decisions.

Some Chinese language open platform on economy [爱集微] put it that way, using the followwing title for their related article published on July 17:

经济学人：欧美政客重金押注芯片和新能源，但他们注定会失望
The Economist: European and American politicians bet heavily on chips and new energy, but they are destined to be disappointed

在西方国家，目标是扭转工业衰退的趋势，这一点选民们深感其重要性。作为全球经济产出的一部分，制造业的占比已从1997年的19%下降至今天的16%，其中富裕国家的下降幅度最大。在中国和印度，工业在经济产出中的份额似乎与三十年前相差不大，但即使在这些国家，近年来工业的份额也有所下降（参见图表1）。

In Western countries, the goal is to reverse the trend of industrial decline, which voters feel deeply important. As a share of global economic output, manufacturing has fallen from 19 per cent in 1997 to 16 per cent today, with the largest declines in rich countries. In China and India, industry's share of economic output appears to be about the same as it was three decades ago, but even in these countries, industry's share has declined in recent years.



The video, named Europe's Deindustrialization: Ukraine War's Ripple Effect [Asia Times], presents an intelligent perception of the subject by David Woo, some Wall Street expert of Chinese extraction. It seems to support the above quoted Chinese article in a certain way.

Ukraine - Bigger Damage Inflicted on Crimean Bridge

Here some excerpts from different Chinese sources that published their reports about the 2nd Ukrainian attack, targeting the strategically important Kerch Bridge in Russian occupied Crimea on July 17. They are quoting today's news from China's CCTV (July 19).

主管交通运输的俄罗斯联邦副总理马拉特·胡斯努林说：“克里米亚大桥公路部分的一跨已被摧毁且无法修复”。此外，“大桥的一条铁轨有轻微损坏。”克里米亚刻赤海峡大桥被炸以后，如何恢复与克里米亚半岛的交通成了头等大事。[NetEase]

"A span of the highway section of the Crimea Bridge has been destroyed beyond repair," said Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin of the Russian Federation in charge of transport. In addition, "one rail of the bridge was slightly damaged." After the Kerch Strait Bridge in Crimea was bombed, how to restore traffic with the Crimea Peninsula became a top priority.

The Chinese source emphasizes that US satellites are obviously monitoring every move in the Russian-Ukrainian war theater almost 24 hours a day.

.................

克里米亚大桥17日凌晨再遭破坏，造成两人死亡、一人受伤，大桥公路路面受损。俄罗斯副总理胡斯努林18日表示，须拆除通往刻赤方向被摧毁的桥段，修复所需的材料和构件17日已经从陶里亚蒂[Толья́тти]启运。由于桥墩位于汽车车道和铁路车道之间，无法使用浮吊，需建造一座250米长的临时桥，预计这一工作将耗时2个月。初步预计，修复费用可能为10亿至13亿卢布（约合人民币8000万至1亿元）。[Sohu]

The Crimea Bridge was damaged again in the early morning of the 17th, resulting in two deaths, one injury, and damage to the road surface of the bridge. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin said on the 18th that the destroyed bridge section leading to Kerch must be dismantled, and the materials and components needed for repair have been shipped from Togliatti [former Stavropol in Samara Oblast] on the 17th. Since the pier is located between the car lane and the railway lane, floating cranes cannot be used, and a 250-meter-long temporary bridge needs to be built. This work is expected to take 2 months. It is initially estimated that the repair cost may be 1 billion to 1.3 billion rubles (about 80 million to 100 million yuan).

Ukraine - Diplomatic Activity after 500 Days of War

Security in Lithuania enforced ahead of NATO summit about Ukraine on July 11.


Turkish president Erdogan willing to support Ukraine's entry into NATO after war with Russia.


German language news report on Zelensky's visit to Turkey.

US-Russian Tensions Rising in Syria and Ukraine

On July 1st, the Iranian news center Tasnim quoted 'military-diplomatic sources' in Damascus, Syria, on the formation of Kurdish volunteers by Ukrainian experts inside Syria, in what is referred to as 'terrorist structures'. It is about both, countering Russian presence in Syria and preparing Kurdish fighters for a later deployment in Ukraine. The original text message from Iran is as follows:

Furthermore, the source revealed that American and Ukrainian intelligence officers hold regular joint consultations in Iraq to address the issue of countering the Russian presence in Syria. It was also disclosed that a decision has been made to double the number of 'terrorist structures' in the region.

According to the source, Ukrainian experts trained at US bases in Iraq are currently providing training to recruited militants who will be sent to Ukraine at a later stage. The source highlighted that the Ukrainian consul in the Kurdish Autonomous Region in Iraq is typically entrusted with the task of recruiting militants and facilitating their transfer to Syria.

Notably, recent meetings between US forces and armed factions from Arab tribes in Al-Hasakah and Raqqa in Syria have intensified. These meetings aim to coordinate efforts with the militants, raising questions about the nature of this movement and the potential resurgence of tensions along the Syrian-Iraqi border.

At the same time, tensions between the US side and Russia's air force in Syria seem to rise as has been reported by Kurdistan 24, a Kurdish news center on June 22:

In a briefing to journalists [in Washington], U.S. Air Force Lt. General Alexus Grynkewich, who heads CENTCOM’s Combined Forces Air Component, explained how the war in Ukraine is exacerbating tensions in northeastern Syria, where the U.S. supports the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the fight against ISIS. ..........

Asked by Kurdistan 24 if Russia’s aggressive posture toward U.S. forces in Syria might relate to its aggression against Ukraine, Grynkewich seemed to agree, providing several examples.

He suggested that Russia’s air force in Syria had become more aggressive “perhaps as a way to compensate for the fact that they have had to move capability and capacity out of Syria in order to support the war in Ukraine.”

Grynkewich also suggested that the difficulties Russia is facing in Ukraine may be contributing to reckless behavior by its pilots.

Editor's Comment:
I created this blogspot in order to shed some light on an alleged 'deployment of Kurdish mercenaries in Ukraine', a topic discussed by different Chinese media some days earlier.

As to the credibility of Russian sources, quoted by the Chinese, I have my seconds thoughts. Same goes with the Iranian news center:

Trying to verify any information given here, I stumbled on the fact that this article was only available in English. While other daily subjects of high importance usually go with a translation into other regional idioms like Arabic, Farsi or Hebrew, this was obviously not the case.

In a subsequent search of the net I therefore used keywords in Arabic, but without any relevant result. Among lots of Arabic sources of each provenance there was simply no (= zero) additional information on the subject coming from the region. I might have overlooked something of minor importance, but I don't believe so. So I come to think that this is just another disinformation campaign, as I already indicated in my last blogspot.

[By the way, I even found the Arabic version of a Tasnim article on Syria challenging the US in front of the United Nations Security Council for inflicting damage on Syria, including 100 billion US dollars of economic losses. That information had been quoted by the Chinese. => Compare last blogspot of mine !]

Syrian Ambassador Sabbagh during a session of the UN Security Council [Tasnim, Jan. 25, 2023]

Russian Agency : Kurdish Mercenaries for Ukraine ?

当地时间6月30日，俄新社援引来自叙利亚相关人士的话报道称，美国当局开始从叙利亚境内招募武装力量以支持乌克兰。为此，美国中央情报局的相关人员正同叙境内的库尔德武装力量和一些部落进行谈判。

On June 30, local time, RIA Novosti quoted sources from Syria as saying that the US authorities began recruiting armed forces from Syria to support Ukraine. To this end, relevant personnel of the US Central Intelligence Agency are negotiating with the Kurdish armed forces and some tribes in Syria. [Chinese news published on 1st July]

Another Chinese source, published the same day, is stressing that Ukrainian forces might be running out of active soldiers, referring to 'heavy losses' but, as well, to lots of Ukrainian 'citizens fleeing the country'.

As to the Ukrainian refugees now flooding West European countries, I should add that these are entirely women and children. Young male adults are forbidden to leave Ukraine and are, therefore, either joining the army or waiting to be called to the weapons. And this is just what happens.

Russia's media information is difficult to believe. In fact, the US position in Syria seems to be rather delicate such as US troops can neither advance nor retreat in a war against, both, the Islamic State (ISIS) and Iranian-backed groups in a semi-autonomous region, run by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish group. It looks as if the US are essentially relying on their Kurdish allies in some kind of perpetual war that cannot be won. How then send away their most able Kurdish partners in combat to Ukraine ?

The following information is the gist of an article published on June 15 by Jonathan Guyer, a foreign policy, national security, and global affairs editor for VOX News:

Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that troops are needed because “if you completely ignore and turn your back, then you’re setting the conditions for a resurgence.”

But experts say that the US troops there are not building toward a sustainable outcome, and that resisting ISIS has become the pretext for a perpetual US presence.

“It’s a strategy that just makes no sense,” says Robert Ford, who served as US ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014. “The real way forward is not leaving 900 troops to play whack-a-mole in eastern Syria.”

Ford explains that the American mission to secure the outright defeat of ISIS is impossible. The 900 troops in the northeast of Syria and the US garrison at al-Tanf cannot stop a low level of recruitment into ISIS ranks. “So we can bomb some and we can kill some, but they'll always replace the people that they lose,” he told me. “This is a classic forever war.”

Anyway, it is difficult to understand why US units in Syria and their Kurdish allies should get into the focus of recruiters in need of loyal mercenaries for a deployment in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Instead, the whole story seems to be fabricated by the Russian side which follows different policies in the Syrian conflict and would welcome everything useful to weaken the US position there.

And there is another reason for the US to stay in Syria: It's the oil and gas fields that have to be 'secured' by US and allied military. Of course, US legitimacy for that can be questioned, but it's just another reason for the US to stay, as an earlier Chinese article indicated on June 16:

2022年12月，叙利亚外交部致信联合国秘书长和联合国安理会主席指出，美国非法驻军及其支持的反对派武装，不断盗运叙利亚石油等资源、并破坏叙利亚基础设施，已给叙利亚造成259亿美元的直接经济损失，以及860亿美元的间接经济损失。

“我们留下军队就是为了石油”

多位分析人士指出，美军不请自来、又赖着不走，他们就是为了这里的石油。但这些石油所带来的收入原本是为了改善叙利亚民生，叙利亚石油从来就不属于美国。

In December 2022, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the Chairman of the UN Security Council, pointing out that the illegal presence of U.S. troops and the opposition forces supported by the United States have continued to smuggle Syrian oil and other resources and destroy Syrian infrastructure, which has caused 25.9 billion US Dollars damage to Syria in direct economic losses and of 86 billion US Dollars in indirect economic losses.

"We keep the military for the oil"

Many analysts pointed out that the U.S. military came here uninvited and refused to leave, and they did so for the oil here. However, the income from that oil was originally intended to improve the livelihood of the Syrian people, and Syrian oil has never belonged to the United States.

Extended oil and gas fields, as well as wheat in the northeastern provinces of Syria