Friday, March 30, 2012

Iran - Imminent Danger of War

Latest UPDATE at the end of blogspot !

Israeli drone

According to Israeli sources, Azerbaijan should have granted Israel access to four of its military airbases. After an earlier deal between Azerbaijan and Israel, comprising the delivery of arms and material provided by Israel's aircraft industry, Israel might now be able to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran directly from its northern border.

Up to now, any attack by Israeli warplanes would have required their refuelling in the air. While the arms deal has already been confirmed and reported in another blogspot of mine, the alleged use of Azerbaijani airbases by Israel was only considered as a possible option by some global security website. The new development became officially known today by People's Network, Beijing, and related Chinese sources referring Israeli media. The day before, a German TV broadcast presented a satellite image showing one of those bases in question. It should be located north of Azerbaijan's Caspian seaport of Baku.

Does Israel wish to use Azerbaijani runways in an attack on Iran ?
[Headline for People's Network, Beijing, on April 2
and referring to "recent" U.S. diplomatic reports

In the past, Azerbaijan became known as some kind of save haven for terrorists of all kind, an old map showing the camps of Islamist and pro-Taliban groups as well as of Turkish nationalists (Grey Wolves). One airfield in Southern Azerbaijan should even have served as a training camp for pilots connected to alleged terrorist groups. It is therefore unclear to what extent Azerbaijan can now be regarded as a stable pro-Western community that could serve Israeli pilots as a base of action against the Islamic Republic. The official conditions of use for the above mentioned airfields are unknown either. Maybe, Israel could try to resort to some kind of hit-and-run strategy when using Azerbaijani facilities for an attack, using the help of Azerbaijan's secret service.

In another Chinese article from XinHua-News-Network, dating back to February 2, 2012, Israeli sources are cited that Israel is decided to attack up to 27 targets in Iran and that are related to the development of nuclear weapons.

Comment by Ulysses:

In recent days, the war drums against Iran are being beaten even more forcefully than ever before. Even though U.S. President Obama has not yet decided to resort to war on Iran, influential pressure groups inside the U.S. are demanding an immediate attack:

The Republican candidates, at least, are seemingly eager to teach the Iranians a lesson they would never forget. Seen in the frame of U.S. preelections, such behaviour makes sense especially for those politicians who are unable to present a real new concept for solving the actual problems of U.S. economy including unemployment and social decay. While not being in charge of essential military decisions to be taken in case of war, and therefore being far away from any personal responsibility, it is an easy game for such people to rely on popular stances.

Even more dangerous, however, are those voices inside the U.S.A. that are in favour of Israel, the only partner in the game who is really interested in a military conflict with the Islamic Republic of Iran for most practical reasons.

Unfortunately, U.S. media seem to "jump" at the Iranian subject in the actual situation of political incertainty and confusion. We should only remember recent "developing stories" presented by Wolf Blitzer in CNN's "situation room":

March 24, 2012
The "Iranian A-Team", allegedly consisting of hundreds of Hezbollah agents and being paid by Tehran to inflict inside damage to the U.S.A.. By the way, the same U.S.A. which is known to be the Iranian cash cow. Just a new idea: Hitting the place where you earn much of your money.

March 28, 2012
Another related subject in Wolf Blitzer's situation room was considering a nuclear attack on Washington DC. A new study was used to demonstrate how the White House would be erased for sure because of its unshielded position within the skyline of Washington, while the Pentagon might still remain unaffected.

Now that "common sense" of U.S. citizens is being driven to realize the need for another war in the Middle East, after the U.S. "having done" with Iraq and Afghanistan, we can nothing but wait for the next desaster to come and which will blow up the whole region in a splendid TV presentation of fireworks. It can be predicted that we will, sooner or later, meet with some old enemies at the war site, as Russia is not really amused by the idea of America and Israel making trouble in Putin's Kaspian backyard. Even China might take it the wrong way. It could be just like a former commanding general for U.S. CENTCOM already put it: "If you liked Iraq and Afghanistan, - you will love Iran."

However, the time window for war with Iran is being expected to close in a very near future as a commentator for Al-Jazeera recently put it. Even if Israel succeeded in some hazardous attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, the Islamic Republic would probably need just another year to complete its first nuclear weapon and which would be celebrated by the people of Iran. In the end, an Israeli attack could only delay but not completely stop the development of Iran's military power. Once U.S. preelections are over, the surviving Republican candidate and Obama's competitor might need to row back in front of all those internal problems that are haunting the U.S.A., and a less emotional view on foreign affairs might return sooner or later. Same goes with the European Union and their initiative for international sanctions against Iran, as soon as recent election campaigns in France and Germany and the temporary settling of imminent economic problems have come to an end. - It's just the actual period of uncertainty and chaos that is most dangerous to peace as it might seduce Israel into making a decisive mistake of historic dimensions.

Cited Chinese sources:


Israeli media: Azerbaijan granting Israel access to four [Azerbaijani] air bases.

来源: 人民网 新华网 2012年03月30日

Israeli media saying that Israel might probably use Azerbaijani bases in an attack on Iran.

来源: 人民网 2012年02月02日

Israel's military determined to hit 27 targets among Iran's nuclear facilities.

俄罗斯军事改革基本结束 发生“革命性”变化
来源:人民网-《人民日报》 2012年03月30

Russian military reform basically completed - "revolutionary" changes being accomplished.

伊朗强调与敌人对抗不退缩 称美国阴谋令人厌恶
来源:中国新闻网 2011年10月16日

Iran emphasizes it would not shrink back from their enemies in case of war and is naming the U.S. as the disgusting leader in a conspiracy.

UPDATE from March 31, 2012:

روسيا "الشيعية" و ثورة سوريا العربية

Russia's "sectarianism" and the Arabic revolution in Syria

................. is the title of a comment that appeared in today's edition of Al-Jazeera's Arabic website. It is discussing the subject of Russia's individual position within an international community in favour of foreign interference in Syria and Iran. Here some quotations related to the conflict between Iran and the Western alliance comprising America, Israel and the European Union, thus showing the complexity of the subject:

الكتيبة المتقدمة لروسيا و إيران مما تخشي موسكو وتل أبيب ؟ ليست طائفة و الثورة العربية

Is it the avantgarde of Russia and Iran that Moscow and Tel Aviv are fearing ? It's not the same class [who made] the Arabic revolution.

This quotation might be hinting at the new economic forces growing inside Russia and Iran, decided to efficiently control the distribution and use of crude oil and other natural resources from the so-called "belt of benediction" between Russia and Iran.

هنا القراءة الشاملة للمشهد تُعطي كل المؤشرات بأن الحبكة الإيرانية الروسية المباركة باهتمام من تل أبيب قد اكتملت، وأن عواصم الغرب بالفعل أعلنت رسميا رفضها لتسليح الضحية, وهذا الأمر صداه بارز في واشنطن وباريس وغيرهما من عواصم التأثير الغربي, في حين أن المليشيات وجسر السلاح الإيراني والسلاح الروسي لا يتوقف, والتواطؤ الغربي واضح

It is the total view of the scene that is providing all indicators [how] the Iranian-Russian "belt of benediction" came to the attention of Tel Aviv after its completion, and [why] the Western Uncle Sam definitely and officially declared his rejection of [their] victim's armament. And this affair was calling for war in Washington, Paris and [elsewhere] under the Western influence of Uncle Sam. At the moment, militias dared the armament of Iran and Russian armament didn't stop, the Western conspiracy [became] visible.

Arabic author of above cited comment

UPDATE from April 2, 2012:

Another article from Al-Arabiya's Arabic website [April 2, 2012] is touching the subject of foreign interference in Syria which is critisized by Iran and that has already been chosen as the next target of military intervention:

عسكري إيراني يدعو دمشق إلى معاقبة داعمي الثوار

العميد مسعود جزائري: حان الوقت لتمريغ أنوف القوى الأجنبية في التراب

Iranian military is calling Damascus to punish those who support the rebels.

For a better understanding: The brigadier doesn't target Syrians engaged in uprising but foreign countries in support of them, thus following their own interests.
Brigadier Massoud Djasairi: It is time to turn down the arrogance of foreign powers in [their] suspicion.

في تصريحات شديدة اللهجة، هدد مساعد الأركان العامة للقوات المسلحة الإيرانية العميد مسعود جزائري، في مقابلة له أمس الأحد الدول الداعمة للثوار السوريين، مطالباً نظام الرئيس بشار الأسد بمعاقبة الضالعين في اضطرابات سوريا
In an interview granted yesterday, Sunday [April 1], and where he gave his declarations in a rough dialect, the man second-in-rank within the general command of Iran's armed forces, brigadier Massoud Djasairi, said those countries in support of [Syrian] rebels, i.e. of "Syrians demanding the punishment of president Bashir Al-Assad's system", are only accomplices of revolutionary turmoil.

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